Weekly Monsoon Report. 07 August 2017

Transcription

1 Weekly Monsoon Report 07 August 2017

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Baring North-west India, rainfall activities remained on lower side in most of the other parts of the country. As per the IMD, New Delhi, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall activity likely to occur over Northeast & East India, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh till 09 August. During 10 to 16 August, rainfall activity is likely to above normal over north-eastern states, Bihar & south Peninsular India and below normal over remaining parts of the country. The week ending 02 August witnessed deficient rainfall. The % deviation of actual rains from normal rains was -27% during week ending Aug 02, 2017 as compared to 22 % seen during week ending July 26, For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year s southwest monsoon season has been below LPA by 2% during 1 June till 6 August North West India (12%) received good rainfall activity till now however South Peninsula (-18%), East & Northeast India (-7%) continues to witness lesser rainfall while Central India has received normal rainfall. Seasonal rainfall was excess/normal in 28 and deficient/scanty in 8 out of the 36 meteorological subdivision during June 01- Aug 02, As compared to same period of last year, the number of deficient/scanty divisions is slightly more. South Interior Karnataka, Kerala, Vidarbha, Marathawada and West Uttar Pradesh are the regions with deficit rainfall. However excess rainfall was seen in the West and East Rajasthan, Saurashtra, Kutch, Gujarat region, and Madhya Maharashtra. With the start of August month, on cumulative seasonal rainfall basis, the number of deficient rainfall sub-divisions increased sharply. The deficit rainfall subdivision remains 8 out of 36 for the week ending Aug 02, In July the number of such sub-divisions remained in range of 3-4 only. In June the number of deficient rainfall sub-divisions was in range of Till 06 August, 2017, the number of deficit rainfall districts are at alarming rate in Karnataka (80%). In Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, the percentage of deficient rainfall districts has increased. In these two states now more than 50% of the total districts are rainfall deficient. In Haryana too, around 43% districts are rainfall deficient. However in other important states, the percentage of deficient rainfall districts remains less than 33. At all India level, the around 33% of the total districts in the country are rainfall deficient till 06 Aug At all India level, around 83% of the normal area of whole Kharif season has been sown till 04 August Pulses have been sown on around 115% of the normal sown area under pulses during kharif season while cotton and sugarcane sowing is completed on around 93% and 99% respectively. The sowing of oilseeds and cereals have been done only at 81% and 74% of the normal sown area under these crops. As per the reports published by the ministry of agriculture, the total sown area as on 04 th August 2017, stands at lakh hectare as compared to lakh hectare seen at this time last year which is around 3% more. Highest percentage increment is registered in Cotton. The sown area under cotton increased by around 19% compared to the corresponding period of last year. Sugarcane sown area is increased by 9% followed by pulses (4%) and cereals (3%). There is substantial reduction in the oilseeds sown area (- 10%). In Pulses, Urad sown area is increased by 28% while Tur has seen a decline of 17% compared to corresponding period of last year. In Oilseeds, soybean and groundnut, the sown area has shown decline of around 10 and 13% compared to the corresponding period of last year. Weekly Monsoon Report 2 Monday, 07 August 2017

3 Classification of Seasonal Monsoon Rains (June September) over the country as a Whole (based upon Long Run Average (LPA) Rainfall) Category Rainfall Range (% of LPA) Deficient < 90 Below Normal Normal Above Normal Excess >110 The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole for the period is 89 cm. Classification of Rainfall based upon Actual and Normal Rainfall during a particular Period Category % Departure of Actual rainfall from Normal Rainfall No rains -100% Scanty -60% to -99% Deficient -20% to -59% Normal +19% to -19% Excess +20% or more A: Actual Rain fall (mm), N: Normal Rainfall (mm), D Departure from Normal (mm) There are 36 Meteorological Sub divisions in India Seasons Winter Season Pre-Monsoon Season Monsoon Season Post Monsoon Season January February March - May June - September October - December The monsoon forecast History Year Forecast Actual Issued in April Issued in June (% of LPA) % of LPA with a model error of ±5 98 % of LPA ± % % of LPA with a model error of ± 5 93 % of LPA ± 4 88 % % of LPA with a model error of ± 5% 88% of LPA ±4% 86 % % of LPA with a model error of ± 5% 106% of LPA ±4% 97 % % of LPA with a model error of ± 5% 98% of LPA ±4%? The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole for the period is 89 cm. Major crops grown during Kharif Season (i) Cereals : Paddy, Jowar, Bajra, Maize, Ragi; (ii) Pulses : Tur (Arhar), Moong, Urad; (iii) Oilseeds : Groundnut, Soybean, Sunflowerseed, Sesamum, Nigerseed, Castor seed (iv) Cotton (v) Guarseed (vi) Sugarcane (vii) Spices : Chilli and Turmeric Weekly Monsoon Report 3 Monday, 07 August 2017

4 SUMMARY OF MONSOON 2016 Southwest monsoon set in over Kerala on 8 th June (7 days behind the normal schedule of 1st June) and covered the entire country by 13 th July (against the normal date of 15th July). The rainfall during monsoon season (June-September) over the country as a whole was 97% of its long period average (LPA). Seasonal rainfalls over Northwest India, Central India, South Peninsula and Northeast India were 95%, 106%, 92% and 89% of respective LPA. Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole was 89% of LPA in June, 107% of LPA in July, 91% of LPA in August and 97% of LPA in September. Out of the total 36 meteorological subdivisions, 23 sub-divisions constituting 72% of the total area of the country received normal rainfall and 4 sub-divisions received excess rainfall (13% of the total area) during the season. However, 9 sub-divisions constituting 15% of the total area of the country received deficient seasonal rainfall. Monsoon withdrawal commenced from West Rajasthan on 15th September with a delay of 2 weeks. It has withdrawn from most parts of Northwest India as on 10th October, Realized rainfall during southwest monsoon 2016 over four broad geographical regions Season (July-September) rainfall Region LPA (mm) Actual Rainfall for 2016 SW Monsoon Season Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (% of LPA) All India % Northwest India % Central India % South Peninsula % Monthly & second half of the monsoon season rainfall over the country as a whole (All India) Month LPA (mm) Actual Rainfall for 2016 SW Monsoon Season Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (% of LPA) June % July % August % September % August+September % The following important meteorological sub divisional received deficient rainfall during monsoon season Sub-Divisions Rainfall Deficiency (%) Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi -27 % Punjab -28 % Gujarat -24 % Costal Karnataka -21% South Interior Karnataka -21 % Source: IMD Weekly Monsoon Report 4 Monday, 07 August 2017

5 Highlights MONSOON 2017: LONG RANGE FORECAST UPDATE Rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2017 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is most likely to be NORMAL (96% to 104% of long period average (LPA)). Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 98% of the LPA with a model error of ±4%. Region wise, the season rainfall is likely to be 96% of LPA over North-West India, 100% of LPA over Central India, 99% of LPA over South Peninsula and 96% of LPA over North-East India all with a model error of ± 8 %. The monthly rainfall over the country as whole is likely to be 96% of its LPA during July and 99% of LPA during August both with a model error of ± 9 %. Source: PIB, IMD, New Delhi, June 06, 2017 Progress of Monsoon 2017 Baring North-west India, rainfall activities remained on lower side in most of the other parts of the country. As per the IMD, New Delhi, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall activity likely to occur over Northeast & East India, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh till 09 August. During 10 to 16 August, rainfall activity is likely to above normal over north-eastern states, Bihar & south Peninsular India and below normal over remaining parts of the country. Rainfall Forecast till 17 August 2017 Source: IMD, New Delhi Weekly Monsoon Report 5 Monday, 07 August 2017

6 Weekly and Seasonal Rainfall Pattern in India As can be seen from the above Figure that during week end 2 August 2017, Kerala, Karnataka and Marathwada and Vidharbha part of Maharashtra and Telangana witnessed largely deficient rainfall while Madhya Maharashtra, whole Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, East Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, and other parts of east India observed deficient rainfall. Only parts of Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu witnessed excess rainfall. Seasonal Rainfall (in mm) up to 06 August 2017 Region Actual Normal % Departure from Long Period Average (LPA) All India % East & Northeast India % Northwest India % Central India % South Peninsula % Source: IMD, New Delhi For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year s southwest monsoon season has been below LPA by 2% during 1 June till 6 August North West India (12%) received good rainfall activity till now however South Peninsula (-18%), East & Northeast India (-7%) continues to witness lesser rainfall while Central India has received normal rainfall. Weekly Monsoon Report 6 Monday, 07 August 2017

7 No. of Met. Sub. Divisions Rainfall (mm) Departure (%) Cumulative Seasonal Rainfall in the Country during Monsoon Season The country received a cumulative seasonal rainfall of mm against a normal of mm since June 01 Aug 02, 2017, which is 100% of the normal. Same time last year, the departure in rainfall against normal was 1%. Cumumative Rainfall Received during Monsoon Season (01 June - 2 Aug, 2017) % % -23% Actual Normal Departure -19% 17% -23% -6% 1% 0% -6% 1% 0% 30% 0% -30% Actual Normal Departure Data Source: IMD, New Delhi Meteorological Sub-division wise Distribution of Rainfall A: Seasonal rainfall Seasonal rainfall was excess/normal in 28 and deficient/scanty in 8 out of the 36 meteorological subdivision during June 01- Aug 02, As compared to same period of last year, the number of deficient/scanty divisions is slightly more. Number of Meteorological Sub-divisions with Excess/Normal and Deficit/scanty ranifall (01 June - 2 Aug, 2017) Excess/Normal Deficient/Scanty Excess/Normal Deficient/Scanty Data Source: IMD, New Delhi Weekly Monsoon Report 7 Monday, 07 August 2017

8 % Departure 07-Jun 14-Jun 21-Jun 28-Jun 05-Jul 12-Jul 19-Jul 26-Jul 02-Aug 09-Aug 16-Aug 23-Aug 30-Aug 06-Sep 13-Sep 20-Sep 27-Sep B: Top Five Meteorological Sub-divisions based upon Cumulative Seasonal Rainfall Top Five* Deficient and Excess Rainfall Sub-Divisions based upon cumulative Rainfall (1 June - 2 Aug 2017) South Interior Karnataka Kerala Marathawada West Uttar Pradesh Vidarbha India 0 Madhya Maharashtra East Rajasthan Gujarat Region Saurashtra, kutch & Diu West Rajasthan Data Source: IMD, New Delhi, *Important regions from Kharif crops point of view % Departure from Normal Rainfall South Interior Karnataka, Kerala, Vidarbha, Marathawada and West Uttar Pradesh are the regions with deficit rainfall. However excess rainfall was seen in the West and East Rajasthan, Saurashtra, Kutch, Gujarat region, and Madhya Maharashtra. C: Trend in Monsoon Rainfall Departure from Normal Rainfall Trend in Rainfall Departue from Normal since the start of Monsoon Season Jun Jun Jun Jun Jul Jul Jul Jul Aug Weekly Seasonal Aug 16- Aug Excess Rains ( +20% or more ) Normal Rains (-19% to +19%) Deficient Rains ( -20% to -59%) Normal Range Normal Range Aug 30- Aug 06- Sep 13- Sep 20- Sep 27- Sep Data Source: IMD, New Delhi After witnessing very good rainfall activities, the week ending 02 August witnessed deficient rainfall. The % deviation of actual rains from normal rains was -27% during week ending Aug 02, 2017 as compared to 22 % seen during week ending July 26, Weekly Monsoon Report 8 Monday, 07 August 2017

9 % Districts 01-Jun 07-Jun 14-Jun 21-Jun 28-Jun 05-Jul 12-Jul 19-Jul 26-Jul 02-Aug 09-Aug 16-Aug 23-Aug 30-Aug 06-Sep 13-Sep 20-Sep 27-Sep No. of Met. Sub. Divisions D: Week wise Trend in Deficient/Scanty rainfall Sub-divisions 12 Week wise Deficient Rainfall Sub-divisions on the basis of Cumulative Seasonal Rainfall (Since the begining of the Monsoon Season) Data Source: IMD, New Delhi With the start of August month, on cumulative seasonal rainfall basis, the number of deficient rainfall sub-divisions increased sharply. The deficit rainfall subdivision remains 8 out of 36 for the week ending Aug 02, In July the number of such sub-divisions remained in range of 3-4 only. In June the number of deficient rainfall sub-divisions was in range of E: State wise Distribution of Number of Districts with Deficient/Scanty Rainfall *Districts with Deficient Rainfall in various States ( 01 June - 06 Aug, 2017) 80% 53% 50% 43% 33% 33% 31% 30% 25% 25% 17% 17% 16% 16% 15% 15% 33% 6% Data Source: IMD, New Delhi, * States which are more important from view point of kharif Crop production are selected. Till 06 August, 2017, the number of deficit rainfall districts are at alarming rate in Karnataka (80%). In Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, the percentage of deficient rainfall districts has increased. In these two states now more than 50% of the total districts are rainfall deficient. In Haryana too, around 43% districts are rainfall deficient. However in other important states, the percentage of deficient rainfall districts remains less than 33. At all India level, the around 33% of the total districts in the country are rainfall deficient till 06 Aug Weekly Monsoon Report 9 Monday, 07 August 2017

10 KHARIF CROP SOWING PROGRESS As a consequent upon good rainfall seen during July, the sowing activities picked up momentum in the country. At all India level, around 83% of the normal area of whole Kharif season has been sown till 04 August Pulses have been sown on around 115% of the normal sown area under pulses during kharif season while cotton and sugarcane sowing is completed on around 93% and 99% respectively. The sowing of oilseeds and cereals have been done only at 81% and 74% of the normal sown area under these crops. As per the reports published by the ministry of agriculture, the total sown area as on 04 th August 2017, stands at lakh hectare as compared to lakh hectare seen at this time last year which is around 3% more. Highest percentage increment is registered in Cotton. The sown area under cotton increased by around 19% compared to the corresponding period of last year. Sugarcane sown area is increased by 9% followed by pulses (4%) and cereals (3%). There is substantial reduction in the oilseeds sown area (- 10%). In Pulses, Urad sown area is increased by 28% while Tur has seen a decline of 17% compared to corresponding period of last year. In Oilseeds, soybean and groundnut, the sown area has shown decline of around 10 and 13% compared to the corresponding period of last year. As on 04 August 2017, status of crops sowing As on 04 Aug 2017 Normal Area for Whole Kharif Season Share of Crop in Normal Area (In Lakh hectare) Area sown Change over % of Normal for Whole Share of Crop in Total Sown area of India Absolute Percentage Season A B C D E = C-D F = E/D G = C/A H I Total Cereals % % 74% 50% 50% Total Oilseeds % % 81% 17% 19% Total Pulses % % 115% 14% 14% Cotton % % 93% 13% 11% Sugarcane % % 99% 6% 5% All Crops % % 83% 100% 100% Source: MoAFW As on 04 Aug 2017 Normal Area for Whole Kharif Season Area Sown Change over % of Normal for Whole Season (In Lakh hectare) Share of Crop in Total Sown area of India Absolute Percentage A B C D = B-C E = D/C F = B/A G H Cereals a) Rice % 71% 32% 31% c) Bajra % 83% 7% 6% d) Maize % 99% 8% 9% b) Jowar % 63% 2% 2% Total Cereals % 74% 50% 50% Pulses Weekly Monsoon Report 10 Monday, 07 August 2017

11 As on 04 Aug 2017 Normal Area for Whole Kharif Season Area Sown Change over % of Normal for Whole Season Share of Crop in Total Sown area of India Absolute Percentage A B C D = B-C E = D/C F = B/A G H a) Tur (Arhar) % 96% 4% 5% b) Urad % 146% 4% 3% c) Moong % 123% 3% 3% Total Pulses % 115% 14% 14% Oilseeds a) Soybean % 90% 11% 13% b) Groundnut % 84% 4% 5% c) Sesamum % 68% 1% 1% d) Castor seed % 23% 0% 0% Total Oilseeds % 81% 17% 19% Other Cash Crops Cotton % 95% 13% 11% Sugarcane % 99% 6% 5% Jute & Mesta % 84% 1% 1% All Kharif Crops Total Kharif % 83% 100% 100% Crops Source: MoAFW MARKET FEEDBACK ON SOWING STATUS OF IMPORTANT COMMODITIES Note: This section gives some sense about the sowing progress and crop growth status in important commodities as received from the discussion with the farmers and market value chain participants from time to time. It may significantly vary from government / other sources as well as the actual status. Thus, it may not be used for wider generalization of the results. Gujarat Scenario:- In Gujarat, the districts like Banskantaha, Patan, Sabarkanthan, Mahesana, Mobri and Surendra Nagar have seen heavy rains causing floods in some areas and water logging. The north Gujarat region comprising of districts like Banaskantha, Sabarkantha, Patan, MMahesana have witnessed heavy rains. Weekly Monsoon Report 11 Monday, 07 August 2017

12 In Banaskantha, the market sources are estimating a crop loss to the extent of 50-60% owing to water stagnation in the fields. The nearby areas of Banaskanta like Tharad, Palanpur, Deesa, Badgaon, Iqbalpur, Deodar, Bhabhar are also affected. These are the areas where Cotton, Guar, groundnut and castorseed are primarily grown. The crop loss may range from 30-35%. In Sabarkanta district the damage to the above crops could be in the range of 30-35% as reported by the market participants. In Rajkot regions, damage to the cotton crop is expected near 10-12%. In Patan district, the total crop loss could be in the range of 15-20%. The Saurashtra region, comprising the districts like Surendranagar, Morbi, Junagarh, Rajkot is a major cotton and groundnut growing area. In Surendera Nagar, cotton sown area was reported to increase by 20-25% but due to recent rains the crop damage is considered to the extent of 15-20%. Thus, the gains which could be realized through increased sown area are neutralized by damage caused by rains. In the areas like Surendranagar, Kadi and Deesa, the Guarseed sown area reduced by around 10-15% this year compared to last year as per the market sources. In the areas where there is crop damage, the farmers may prefer to sown during August the Castorseed crop. Thus, its area may increase this year. Rajasthan Scenario:- No major crop loss is reported from heavy rain in the areas like Jodhpur. In other areas like Jalore/Pali/Sumerpur/Barmer/Jaisalmer, sowing has yet not completed. The areas like Kota, Bundi, Baran, Jhalawar the crop condition is good. Therese areas have not witnessed any heavy rainfall. The soybean sowing is down by 15-20% during current year compared to last year. Farmers preferred to take Maize, Urad and Paddy in place of soybean. In area like Sri Ganganagar, Bikaner, Hanumangarh crop conditions are reported normal. Rains too have not remained very heavy in these areas. Majorly Soyabean sowing Decreasing reason low yield of Soybean and Price of Last year. Punjab & Haryana Scenario:- Rains are deficient in some areas however these states have alternative sources of irrigations. Thus not much impact of deficit rains should be seen in these states. In Bhiwani region the Cotton sowing increased by around 40-50%. In Hissar region, the Bajra and Guar area decreased by around 25-30% and substitute crop is Cotton. In Sirsa region, the cotton crop sown area is higher by around 25-40%. In Bhatinda region, the cotton area increased by around % from last year. The Guarseed area may decline by around 30% from last year. There is whiteflies attack on the cotton crop on about ha land in Haryana. The attack is believed to have reached the level of economic threshold limit. The fields in the districts of Haryana, Sirsa and Fatehabad are found to be infected by this disease. The farmers are advised by the concerned agencies to take required steps to contain the problem. The cotton crop in parts of Punjab has also been hampered by whitefly attacks. However the affected areas are still to be served by the concerned departments to assess the situation. Whitefly damages the cotton crop by either sucking sap from the leaves directly, or by infecting the crop with cotton leaf curl virus. The whitefly attack had resulted in a huge loss in 2015, fearing Weekly Monsoon Report 12 Monday, 07 August 2017

13 which farmers in Haryana planted just 217,000 ha in High temperatures accompanied with poor rainfall in cotton growing belts of Haryana are likely to further worsen the current whitefly attack persisting on the crop, as the insects will not get washed away, agricultural experts said. Districts in the cotton belt of Punjab--Muktsar, Bathinda and Mansa--are also seen bearing the brunt of whitefly attack, mention the report appeared at the market research portal Cogencis dated 28 July Maharashtra Scenario:- The rains are deficient in many areas. However no major damage to crops is reported due to water stress. In Nagpur region, market sources say that the cotton area increased from last year by around 10 %. The soybean area is same as seen last year. In Jalgaon regon, the soybean sowing is decreased by around % and substitute crop is Urad. No loss till now. Maize area is reported to decline by around 15% from last year. Madhya Pradesh Scenario:- In Dewas, Indore, Khandwa, Neemuch, Guna and Sagar region, the soybean condition is good. In the Khandwa and Sujalpur and nearby area, the Soybean sowing is down 15%. The substitute crop is Urad. No major loss is reported. In the areas like Harda and Ashoknagar, the soyabean sown area declined by around 35% from last year. In most of the areas farmers have preferred Urad as a substitute crops for soybean. Soybean Crop Status in Sagar and Khandwa (Madhya Pradesh) Soybean Crop Status in Khandwa (MP) Weekly Monsoon Report 13 Monday, 07 August 2017

14 Feedback At: Disclaimer This Report is for general information of the recipients. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match the views of the reader. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or other needs of the reader. This document is not intended to be and must not be taken as the basis for any investment decision. It should be noted that the information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable. We are not soliciting any action based upon this material. Neither NICR, nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. Weekly Monsoon Report 14 Monday, 07 August 2017