United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "United Nations Conference on Trade and Development"

Transcription

1 United Nations Conference on Trade and Development 1th MULTI-YEAR EXPERT MEETING ON COMMODITIES AND DEVELOPMENT April 218, Geneva Assessing the recent past and prospects for grains and oilseeds markets in 218/19 By Darren Cooper International Grains Council The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of UNCTAD.

2 IGC 211 Assessing the recent past and prospects for grains and oilseeds markets in 218/19 Some tentative observations United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Multi-year Expert Meeting on Commodities and Development 1 th session Geneva April 218 Darren Cooper International Grains Council

3 IGC 211 The International Grains Council (IGC) Grains Trade Convention (GTC) Information sharing, analysis and data on global markets for wheat, coarse grains, rice and oilseeds Commodity coverage has expanded significantly in recent years Rice included in the definition of grains in the GTC from 1 July 29 Oilseeds formally included from 1 July 213 Monitoring of national policy developments Food Assistance Convention (FAC) Its objectives are to save lives, reduce hunger and improve food security, while enhancing the nutritional status of the most vulnerable populations

4 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 IGC 211 Markets for grains, rice and oilseeds post solid gains, particularly during the early months of IGC daily grains and oilseeds index (GOI), January 2 = % IGC GOI is a weighted index, including 34 fob export quotations across a range of origins, spanning eight commodities For further information, see: /grainsupdate/igc_goi.xls; * refers to year-on-year change

5 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 IGC 211 Gains have been broad based in general, a combination of production worries and export demand IGC daily sub-indices, rebased: 17 Apr 217 = 1 Rice Maize Soybeans Wheat Wheat: Markets have been volatile over the period, with a particularly sharp spike in prices in mid-217, tied to high-protein grades. In 218, prices climb on US Plains dryness, some worries in the EU/CIS and logistics. Maize: Supported by concerns about South American crops, coupled with robust demand for US supplies. Buying interest in Ukraine also firm. Soyabeans: Displays considerable volatility, with dwindling crop prospects in Argentina a major factor. But there have been headwinds huge crop in Brazil and heightened worries about US-China trade Rice: Strength tied to firm export demand, especially from Asian buyers, as well as tighter supplies in major exporters.

6 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 IGC 211 Sentiment reflected by changes in traders net positions noting the soyabean complex shift CME Wheat MGE Wheat KCBT Wheat CME Soyabeans CME Soyameal CME Corn 14 Net position (' contracts) Net long Net short

7 IGC 211 During a key phase of development, conditions in Argentina have remained hot and dry Precipitation anomaly Temperature anomaly

8 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 IGC 211 Global markets strengthen on Argentine crop worries, with particularly sharp gains in soyameal 22 IGC GOI soyabeans sub-index, Jan 2 = 1 Soyabean export prices US$/t % Chg. % Chg. fob 1 Jan y/y Share of Argentina in trade * 21 Argentina Brazil % USA Soyameal US$/t % Chg. % Chg. fob 1 Jan y/y 43% Argentina Brazil USA Soyabean oil US$/t % Chg. % Chg. fob 1 Jan y/y 46% 17 Argentina Brazil USA * 5-year average

9 IGC /18 soyabean production Brazil s crop continues to get larger, Argentina s gets smaller 12 Argentina 12 Brazil 12 USA 217/18 Chg. from Oct to Mar Average 1 8 Average 6 Average /1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18

10 IGC 211 Further gains in global acreage projected for 218/19 again led by major producers 13 m ha World harvested area Key points m ha y/y USA % 12 Average Given current soy prices relative to other crops, such as maize, acreage gains possible, but limited by rotational needs? 11 Canada % Further modest increase in plantings likely, to new record, but less pronounced than in 217/18. 1 China % Tied to continued aim of reducing grains (maize) plantings in marginal areas, soy sowings to expand. 9 Ukraine 1.9-5% 8 7 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 (est.) (f cast) (proj.) Reports of reduced margins could discourage some farmers from boosting area. South America % Tentative, and linked to northern hemisphere crop outcomes. Anticipate gains in Brazil, some recovery in Argentina on rotational needs and lower export taxes.

11 IGC 211 World soyabean supply & demand situation and prospects - US stocks at 11-year high in 217/18 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 y/y 18 Heavy availabilities, especially in the US (est.) (proj.) change Opening stocks % Production % Total supply % Total use % of which: Crush % Closing stocks % Major exporters a) % Trade (Oct/Sep) % US Argentina Brazil a) Argentina, Brazil and US 9 217/18 world outturn smaller, but second largest of all time, but to recover in 218/19? Total use seen at a new peak, rising by 3% y/y. 6 Trade to advance to a record of 153 on growing Asian needs. 3 Stocks to tighten in the major exporters in 17/18 and 18/19 we see a reverse of the situation from recent past. US stocks now expected to be ample, but heavy drawdowns likely in South America. 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 (proj.)

12 IGC 211 As with soy in Argentina, difficult weather impacts maize crops in the southern hemisphere 12 Brazil 6 Argentina 18 South Africa year ave /14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (est.) 17/18 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (est.) 17/18 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (est.) 17/18

13 IGC /19 world maize area projected to be flat 195 m ha World harvested area Average 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 (est.) (f cast) (proj.) Key changes m ha y/y Ukraine 4.3-3% Poor results in 217/18 and reduced profitability expected to discourage some farmers. USA % Amid comparatively better soyabean returns, maize area could drop y/y. However, any decline likely to be capped by rotation requirements. China % Despite strong local prices, policy changes to lead to a third consecutive decline in area.? Russia % Area expected to continue its upward trend. Abandonment projected to be lower y/y.

14 IGC 211 Global maize supplies set to tighten in 218/19, led by falls in China and major exporters 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 y/y (est.) (proj.) change 225 A tighter situation anticipated Opening stocks % Production 984 1,88 1,45 1,52 +.7% Total supply 1,268 1,382 1,382 1,36-1.6% Total use 974 1,46 1,74 1, % of which: Food % Feed % Industrial % Closing stocks % Major exporters a) % Ukraine Brazil Argentina US China Trade (Jul/Jun) % a) Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, USA 1 Production to edge lower, with tentative rebounds in South America contrasting with a fall in the US. 75 Feed and industrial needs to drive consumption higher. 5 Further tightening of stocks likely in 218/19, on drawdowns in China and major exporters. 25 Trade seen little changed y/y, at a peak of 15. Feed demand to underpin large imports across a number of regions. 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 f'cast 18/19 (proj.)

15 IGC 211 A third consecutive drop in world wheat area is projected in 218/ m ha World harvested area Key changes m ha y/y Average N & C America % 22 Increased spring wheat area forecast in Canada and the USA. Europe % 215 Sowings in parts of Northern Europe were limited by overly wet soils during planting. CIS % 21 Not all planned winter grain area was sown in Russia. Planting weather in Ukraine was better compared to the previous two years. North Africa 6.8-6% 25 Earlier dryness in Morocco expected to have restricted seedings. Far East Asia % 2 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 (est.) (f cast) (proj.) Despite high support prices, sowings in India seen 4% lower y/y, with some area switched into pulses.

16 IGC 211 World wheat supply & demand situation and prospects 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 y/y (est.) (proj.) change Opening stocks % Production % Total supply % Total use % of which:food % Feed % Industrial % Closing stocks % major exporters a) % Trade (Jul/Jun) % Major exporters Major exporters stocks tighter China a) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, US 6 Production seen 2% lower but, due to high carryins, supplies close to peak levels. 5 4 Food demand to underpin consumption growth 3 Leaving aside nominal inventories in China, major exporters stocks set to tighten 2 1 Global trade likely to advance to a new high of 179, with bigger purchases by Iran and India notable. 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 (est.) 18/19 (proj.)

17 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 IGC 211 Wheat trade potentially at a new high in 218/19, with share of Black Sea exporters staying elevated Asia & Africa at about 8% of trade Black Sea volumes close to record in 18/19? 18 Asia Africa Others Kazakhstan 16 Argentina 14 Ukraine Australia Canada EU USA 2 2 Russia (est.) (f cast) (proj.) (est.) (f cast) (proj.)

18 IGC 211 Rice trade to stay high in 218, at close to 46 compares to 41m five-year average Sub-Saharan Africa Far East Asia Other importers 18 (milled basis) 17 (milled basis) 17 (milled basis) Average Average Average

19 IGC 211 India to remain the biggest exporter in 218, taking market share from Thailand? 14 (milled basis) 1 (milled basis) 12 Thailand India 8 6 Vietnam (milled basis) China Will this trend be sustained?

20 IGC 211 World rice stocks kept high by accumulation in China...but those available to world market tighten 8 (milled basis) World stocks seen steady y/y 5 Stocks in Thailand to fall to a decade low? (milled basis) Major exporters Others * China 45 Thailand 4 India /8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 * Pakistan, USA, Vietnam

21 IGC 211

IFA Medium-Term Fertilizer Outlook

IFA Medium-Term Fertilizer Outlook IFA Medium-Term Fertilizer Outlook 2015 2019 Olivier Rousseau IFA Secretariat Afcome 2015 Reims, France October 21 st - 23 rd 2015 Outlook for World Agriculture and Fertilizer Demand Economic and policy

More information

Signs align for corn profit hopes Short crop in Brazil could be fix the market needs By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst

Signs align for corn profit hopes Short crop in Brazil could be fix the market needs By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst Signs align for corn profit hopes Short crop in Brazil could be fix the market needs By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst Corn growers enjoyed an outbreak of optimism last week at Commodity Classic

More information

SOUTH AMERICAN SOYBEAN CROP ESTIMATE INCREASED

SOUTH AMERICAN SOYBEAN CROP ESTIMATE INCREASED April 14, 2000 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info. 1787 SOUTH AMERICAN SOYBEAN CROP ESTIMATE INCREASED USDA s World Agricultural Outlook Board raised its estimate of combined Brazilian and Argentine soybean production

More information

Wheat Year in Review (International): Low 2007/08 Stocks and Higher Prices Drive Outlook

Wheat Year in Review (International): Low 2007/08 Stocks and Higher Prices Drive Outlook United States Department of Agriculture WHS-2008-01 May 2008 A Report from the Economic Research Service Wheat Year in Review (International): Low 2007/08 Stocks and Higher Prices Drive Outlook www.ers.usda.gov

More information

April 9, Dear Subscriber:

April 9, Dear Subscriber: April 9, 2014 Dear Subscriber: We will be adding material to this shell letter after the report is released on April 9, 2014 at 11:00 a.m CST. Be sure to click back on the link often for the latest information.

More information

World Wheat Supply and Demand. Crop Quality Seminars 2013 Ian Flagg

World Wheat Supply and Demand. Crop Quality Seminars 2013 Ian Flagg World Wheat Supply and Demand Crop Quality Seminars 2013 Ian Flagg Beginning Stocks 250 200 Exporter beginning stocks down 35% from 5-year average 199 199 174 150 125 100 83 122 50 0 27 14 14 32 48 38

More information

Agriculture Commodity Markets & Trends

Agriculture Commodity Markets & Trends Agriculture Commodity Markets & Trends Agenda Short History of Agriculture Commodities US & World Supply and Demand Commodity Prices Continuous Charts What is Contango and Backwardation Barge, Truck and

More information

AMIS Global Market Outlook 2017/18 Wheat & Maize 2017 China Agricultural Conference Beijing April 2017

AMIS Global Market Outlook 2017/18 Wheat & Maize 2017 China Agricultural Conference Beijing April 2017 17 17 AO 17AO 17AO AMIS Global Market Outlook 17/18 Wheat & Maize AO 17AO 17AO 17 hina Agricultural onference Beijing -21 April 17 AO 17AO 17AO AO 17AO 17AO Abdolreza Abbassian Senior Economist & AMIS

More information

Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors contributing to recent increases in food commodity prices

Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors contributing to recent increases in food commodity prices Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors contributing to recent increases in food commodity prices Ron Trostle Economic Research Service U.S. Department of Agriculture Agricultural Markets and Food

More information

Grain Market Outlook for

Grain Market Outlook for Grain Market Outlook for 2017-2018 KSU Ag Econ 520 Fall 2017 Manhattan, Kansas DANIEL O BRIEN EXTENSION AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIST Topics to be discussed.. 1) Grain Market Analysis & Outlook Corn & Grain Sorghum

More information

Contact: Dante Manocchio Richardson International

Contact: Dante Manocchio Richardson International The following information was presented at the 2015 Cereals & Oilseeds Workshop on Feb 25, 2015 and should not be copied or reproduced without permission from the author. Contact: Dante Manocchio Richardson

More information

World Steel Market and Ukrainian metallurgy in 2010

World Steel Market and Ukrainian metallurgy in 2010 2-Dec-21 Ministry of Industrial Policy of Ukraine SE UPE Co. Research & Consulting World Steel Market and Ukrainian metallurgy in 21 Vlasyuk V.S. SE UPE Co. Research & Consulting, Ukraine 69 th Session

More information

November 18, 1996 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info. 1706

November 18, 1996 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info. 1706 November 18, 1996 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info. 1706 LEAN HOG CARCASS BASIS The new Lean Hog futures contract differs from its predecessor in several ways. It is traded on carcass weight and price rather than

More information

Santa Claus rally could help corn Be ready to sell brief rallies when they come By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst

Santa Claus rally could help corn Be ready to sell brief rallies when they come By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst Santa Claus rally could help corn Be ready to sell brief rallies when they come By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst Rallies are always possible in corn, even in down markets. Trouble is, they don

More information

Ending stocks can adjust due to a variety of factors from changes in production as well as adjustments to beginning stocks and demand.

Ending stocks can adjust due to a variety of factors from changes in production as well as adjustments to beginning stocks and demand. 1 2 3 Wire services such as Reuters and Bloomberg offer a survey of analysts expectations for high-profile USDA reports. These surveys hold interest because they help clarify what constitutes a shock or

More information

Dairy Outlook. June By Jim Dunn Professor of Agricultural Economics, Penn State University. Market Psychology

Dairy Outlook. June By Jim Dunn Professor of Agricultural Economics, Penn State University. Market Psychology Dairy Outlook June 2015 By Jim Dunn Professor of Agricultural Economics, Penn State University Market Psychology Cheese prices have been rising this past month, rising 16 cents/lb. in a fairly steady climb.

More information

World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts. Lockup Briefing July 11, 2014

World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts. Lockup Briefing July 11, 2014 World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts Lockup Briefing World Wheat Production Country or Region estimate 2014/15 forecast June 11 Million Tons Percent Percent

More information

Ammonia costs spike sharply higher Nitrogen prices disrupt calm in fertilizer market By Bryce Knorr, grain market analyst

Ammonia costs spike sharply higher Nitrogen prices disrupt calm in fertilizer market By Bryce Knorr, grain market analyst Ammonia costs spike sharply higher Nitrogen prices disrupt calm in fertilizer market By Bryce Knorr, grain market analyst Ammonia joined other forms of nitrogen in the parade of higher costs, with contracts

More information

Food Outlook Global Market Analysis

Food Outlook Global Market Analysis Food Outlook Global Market Analysis May 2012 ISSN 1560-8182 HIGHLIGHTS Global food prices seem to have stabilized at a relatively high level of around 214 points as measured by the FAO Food Price Index.

More information

CORN: DECLINING WORLD GRAIN STOCKS OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER PRICES

CORN: DECLINING WORLD GRAIN STOCKS OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER PRICES CORN: DECLINING WORLD GRAIN STOCKS OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER PRICES OCTOBER 2000 Darrel Good Summary The 2000 U.S. corn crop is now estimated at 10.192 billion bushels, 755 million (8 percent) larger

More information

THE SOUTH AFRICAN GRAIN MARKETS QUARTERLY EARLY WARNING REPORT NO. 02 OF 2013

THE SOUTH AFRICAN GRAIN MARKETS QUARTERLY EARLY WARNING REPORT NO. 02 OF 2013 THE SOUTH AFRICAN GRAIN MARKETS QUARTERLY EARLY WARNING REPORT 1. SUMMARY NO. 02 OF 2013 The domestic closing stocks for maize in the current season are expected to decline by about 40.94% on the back

More information

Ukraine Winter Wheat: Sowing Progress (All years include estimated area for Crimea.)

Ukraine Winter Wheat: Sowing Progress (All years include estimated area for Crimea.) Sept 7 Sept 14 Sept 21 Sept 28 Oct 5 Oct 12 Oct 19 Oct 26 Nov 2 Nov 9 Nov 16 Million hectares 1,000 hectares 8,000 7,000 6,000 Ukraine Winter Wheat: Sowing Progress (All years include estimated area for

More information

SOYBEANS: LARGE SUPPLIES CONFIRMED, BUT WHAT ABOUT 2005 PRODUCTION?

SOYBEANS: LARGE SUPPLIES CONFIRMED, BUT WHAT ABOUT 2005 PRODUCTION? SOYBEANS: LARGE SUPPLIES CONFIRMED, BUT WHAT ABOUT 2005 PRODUCTION? JANUARY 2005 Darrel Good 2005 NO. 2 Summary USDA s January reports confirmed a record large 2004 U.S. crop, prospects for large year-ending

More information

The weather models continue to paint an optimistic picture for the new season. The South African maize belt could

The weather models continue to paint an optimistic picture for the new season. The South African maize belt could 22 September 2017 South African Agricultural Commodities Weekly Wrap The weaker domestic currency, coupled with higher Chicago grains and oilseed prices led to widespread gains in the South African agricultural

More information

India. India Grain Voluntary Update - October 2017

India. India Grain Voluntary Update - October 2017 THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Voluntary - Public Date: 10/3/2017 GAIN Report Number:

More information

Hog:Corn Ratio What can we learn from the old school?

Hog:Corn Ratio What can we learn from the old school? October 16, 2006 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info. 1944 Hog:Corn Ratio What can we learn from the old school? Economists have studied the hog to corn ratio for over 100 years. This ratio is simply the live hog price

More information

Crops Marketing and Management Update

Crops Marketing and Management Update Crops Marketing and Management Update Department of Agricultural Economics Princeton REC Dr. Todd D. Davis Assistant Extension Professor -- Crop Economics Marketing & Management Vol. 2016 (3) March 9,

More information

In its final estimates for the 2017 summer crop production season, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) lifted maize

In its final estimates for the 2017 summer crop production season, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) lifted maize 29 September 2017 South African Agricultural Commodities Weekly Wrap This was a data-packed week for grain and oilseed markets with releases that include production estimates update, producer deliveries

More information

Jabs International Pvt. Ltd.

Jabs International Pvt. Ltd. 1 Cumin 1 Global Cumin Production Cumin's Global Cumin Seed production is around 200-215 thousand tons. India is the leading in terms of cumin seed production and consumption. India, Syria and Turkey contributing

More information

Rice Outlook and Baseline Projections. University of Arkansas Webinar Series February 13, 2015 Nathan Childs, Economic Research Service, USDA

Rice Outlook and Baseline Projections. University of Arkansas Webinar Series February 13, 2015 Nathan Childs, Economic Research Service, USDA Rice Outlook and Baseline Projections University of Arkansas Webinar Series February 13, 2015 Nathan Childs, Economic Research Service, USDA THE GLOBAL RICE MARKET PART 1 The 2014/15 Global Rice Market:

More information

THE HIGHTOWER REPORT

THE HIGHTOWER REPORT Futures Analysis & Forecasting HightowerReport.com Strategies for the March 31st USDA Prospective Plantings Report Large Grain Supply May Not Be Enough! Several years ago, the amount of food consumed inside

More information

Food Outlook BIANNUAL REPORT ON GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS

Food Outlook BIANNUAL REPORT ON GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS Food Outlook BIANNUAL REPORT ON GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS November 2017 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Food Outlook report is a product of the FAO Trade and Markets Division. This report is prepared under the overall

More information

Update on Cotton: Prices, Responsible Sourcing, and Resources for Your Business

Update on Cotton: Prices, Responsible Sourcing, and Resources for Your Business Update on Cotton: Prices, Responsible Sourcing, and Resources for Your Business Hosted by United States Fashion Industry Association (USFIA) & Cotton Incorporated August 30, 2016 2:00 P.M. Eastern/11:00

More information

ISSN Food Outlook BIANNUAL REPORT ON GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS

ISSN Food Outlook BIANNUAL REPORT ON GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS ISSN 1560-8182 Food Outlook BIANNUAL REPORT ON GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS June 2013 The FAO Food Outlook Team is pleased to present this new edition of Food Outlook which incorporates many improvements, including

More information

Milk and Milk Products: Price and Trade Update

Milk and Milk Products: Price and Trade Update Milk and Milk Products: Price and Trade Update International dairy prices December 2017 1 The FAO Dairy Price Index d 204.2 points in November, up 11.2 points (5.8 percent) from January 2017. At this level,

More information

Update on the Asian Wood Markets

Update on the Asian Wood Markets Update on the Asian Wood Markets RISI North American Conference Boston, USA October 16 18, 2017 Bob Flynn Director, International Timber, RISI Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information Agenda Market

More information

Soy Canada SOYBEAN PROCESSING WORKSHOP PRESENTATION NOVEMBER 16, 2017 BRANDON, MANITOBA

Soy Canada SOYBEAN PROCESSING WORKSHOP PRESENTATION NOVEMBER 16, 2017 BRANDON, MANITOBA Soy Canada SOYBEAN PROCESSING WORKSHOP PRESENTATION NOVEMBER 16, 2017 BRANDON, MANITOBA Overview 1) Soy Canada & Mandate 2) Soybean Sector Update & Trends 3) Growth in Western Canada 4) Commodity Soybean

More information

World Sorghum Grain Producers

World Sorghum Grain Producers World Sorghum Grain Producers Million Metric Tons 18 16 14 12 12 10 8 6 7 7 6 6 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 0 14 MY 2014/15 MY 2015/16 MY 2016/17 Grain Sorghum Exporters Million Metric Tons 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

More information

2008 Annual Report on Lead Market

2008 Annual Report on Lead Market 2008 Annual Report on Lead Market With global lead ingot supply and demand balance converting the deficit in 2007 to a surplus in 2008, lead price retreated gradually in 2008 after rocketing greatly in

More information

THE SOUTH AFRICAN GRAIN MARKETS QUARTERLY EARLY WARNING REPORT NO. 01 OF 2013

THE SOUTH AFRICAN GRAIN MARKETS QUARTERLY EARLY WARNING REPORT NO. 01 OF 2013 THE SOUTH AFRICAN GRAIN MARKETS QUARTERLY EARLY WARNING REPORT 1. SUMMARY NO. 01 OF 2013 The domestic closing stocks for maize in the current season are expected to contract by about 21.39% on the back

More information

Global Market Pulp Statistics

Global Market Pulp Statistics Global Market Pulp Statistics Bleached Kraft Pulp November Data 217 Global Statistics for Bleached Kraft Market Pulp The statistics in this file is based on EPIS (European Pulp Industry Sector) data, distributed

More information

TOC INDEX. Basis Levels in Cattle Markets. Alberta Agriculture Market Specialists. Introduction. What is Basis? How to Calculate Basis

TOC INDEX. Basis Levels in Cattle Markets. Alberta Agriculture Market Specialists. Introduction. What is Basis? How to Calculate Basis TOC INDEX Basis Levels in Cattle Markets Feeder Associations of Alberta Ltd. Alberta Agriculture Market Specialists Introduction Basis levels are an effective tool to use for monitoring feeder and fed

More information

World Agricultural Supply And Demand Estimates

World Agricultural Supply And Demand Estimates United States Department of Agriculture Office of the Chief Economist World Agricultural Supply And Demand Estimates Agricultural Marketing Service Economic Research Service Farm Service Agency Foreign

More information

South African Milk Processors Organisation

South African Milk Processors Organisation South African Milk Processors Organisation The voluntary organisation of milk processors for the promotion of the development of the secondary dairy industry to the benefit of the dairy industry, the consumer

More information

Seventh Multi-year Expert Meeting on Commodities and Development April 2015 Geneva

Seventh Multi-year Expert Meeting on Commodities and Development April 2015 Geneva Seventh Multi-year Expert Meeting on Commodities and Development 15-16 April 2015 Geneva Recent Developments in Global Commodity Markets By Georges Rapsomanikis Senior Economist in the Trade and Markets

More information

United Kingdom Pig Meat Market Update. May 2012

United Kingdom Pig Meat Market Update. May 2012 United Kingdom Pig Meat Market Update May 2012 UK PRICES Having fallen throughout the first two months of 2012, deadweight pig prices have improved seasonally in recent weeks on the back of some tightening

More information

Global and U.S. Rice Markets Face Tighter Supplies in 2015/16

Global and U.S. Rice Markets Face Tighter Supplies in 2015/16 Global and U.S. Rice Markets Face Tighter Supplies in 2015/16 University of Arkansas Webinar Series November 19, 2015 Nathan Childs, Economic Research Service, USDA 11.20.15 PART 1 THE 2015/16 GLOBAL RICE

More information

POLYOLEFINS THE NEVER ENDING STORY

POLYOLEFINS THE NEVER ENDING STORY MARCH 2016 POLYOLEFINS THE NEVER ENDING STORY Martin Wiesweg Senior Director Polymers EMEA +49 211 97550707 Martin.Wiesweg@ihs.com Western Europe stays on a slow growth path World Economic Outlook / March

More information

Argentina. Poultry and Products Annual. Argentina Poultry & Products Annual

Argentina. Poultry and Products Annual. Argentina Poultry & Products Annual THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: GAIN Report

More information

marketreport FEBRUARY 2016

marketreport FEBRUARY 2016 marketreport FEBRUARY 2016 Onion & Garlic Dehydrated Onion Market Summary 2016 US onion crop planting progressing well; El Nino having benefic impact on CA snowpack and precipitation; Chopped/ minced and

More information

Indian Soybean meal- Demand /Supply. Pawan Kumar, Consultant, USSEC

Indian Soybean meal- Demand /Supply. Pawan Kumar, Consultant, USSEC Indian Soybean meal- Demand /Supply Pawan Kumar, Consultant, USSEC USSEC INTRODUCTION We Represent U S farmers U S Industry U S Department of Agriculture We work on finding new applications of soy & Implement

More information

John Deere. Committed to Those Linked to the Land. Market Fundamentals. Deere & Company June/July 2014

John Deere. Committed to Those Linked to the Land. Market Fundamentals. Deere & Company June/July 2014 John Deere Committed to Those Linked to the Land Market Fundamentals Deere & Company June/July 2014 Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures This presentation includes forward-looking comments subject to important

More information

World sugar market overview. Dubai, February 2017

World sugar market overview. Dubai, February 2017 World sugar market overview Dubai, February 2017 What flags over the months ahead? India: all eyes on what comes next CS Brazil: more sugar than anticipated? China and the multiple ways to fill the deficit:

More information

Executive summary. Butter prices at record levels

Executive summary. Butter prices at record levels June 2017 Executive summary Butter prices at record levels South African milk production growth disappointed in the first five months of 2017. Total production during this period is marginally lower than

More information

Hog Producers Near the End of Losses

Hog Producers Near the End of Losses Hog Producers Near the End of Losses January 2003 Chris Hurt Last year was another tough one for many hog producers unless they had contracts that kept the prices they received much above the average spot

More information

SOYBEANS: FOCUS ON SOUTH AMERICAN AND U.S. SUPPLY AND CHINESE DEMAND

SOYBEANS: FOCUS ON SOUTH AMERICAN AND U.S. SUPPLY AND CHINESE DEMAND SOYBEANS: FOCUS ON SOUTH AMERICAN AND U.S. SUPPLY AND CHINESE DEMAND APRIL 2002 Darrel Good 2002-NO.4 Summary Soybean prices during the first half of the 2001-02 marketing year were well below the prices

More information

Recalibration of the Phosphate Market

Recalibration of the Phosphate Market Phosphate Primer and Market Outlook Recalibration of the Phosphate Market Dr. Michael R. Rahm Vice President Market Analysis and Strategic Planning 19 th Annual Citi Chemicals Conference New York, NY December

More information

World Steel Recycling in Figures Steel Scrap a Raw Material for Steelmaking

World Steel Recycling in Figures Steel Scrap a Raw Material for Steelmaking World Steel Recycling in Figures 2006 2010 Steel Scrap a Raw Material for Steelmaking Contents Foreword 2 Executive Summary 4 Graphs & Tables 8 World Crude Steel Production 8 World EAF Production 8 Total

More information

Market Alert. China NPK Statistical Update February Highlights. China Plant Nutrient Exports. Exports

Market Alert. China NPK Statistical Update February Highlights. China Plant Nutrient Exports. Exports Market Alert China NPK Statistical Update February Exports China Customs reported that high-analysis phosphate exports (DAP/ MAP/TSP) fell to 65,200 tonnes in February, a drop of 54% from uary and 58%

More information

Who Will Own the Grain? Elevators Eye Improved Prospects

Who Will Own the Grain? Elevators Eye Improved Prospects November Who Will Own the Grain? Elevators Eye Improved Prospects Key Points: n Opportunities from significant futures market carry, weak harvest basis, and low transportation rates point to improved margins

More information

Black Sea Grain: Export expansion, new markets, Outlook for 2014

Black Sea Grain: Export expansion, new markets, Outlook for 2014 Black Sea Grain: Export expansion, new markets, 2000-2013. Outlook for 2014 Sergey Feofilov UkrAgroConsult Black Sea Grain Conference, April 17-18 2013 Black Sea Grain in the Global Markets Black Sea Wheat

More information

Field Pea and Lentil Marketing Strategies

Field Pea and Lentil Marketing Strategies EC-1295 Field Pea and Lentil Marketing Strategies George Flaskerud Professor and Extension Crops Economist Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics The United States is a small but growing producer

More information

Cattle & Beef Outlook

Cattle & Beef Outlook Cattle & Beef Outlook Glynn Tonsor Dept. of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University Overarching Beef Industry Economic Outlook Supplies Expansion continues, but has moderated Demand Mixed signals

More information

Wheat Outlook. U.S. 2017/18 all-wheat area planted projected to be smallest on record. Figure 1: U.S. wheat planted area by class

Wheat Outlook. U.S. 2017/18 all-wheat area planted projected to be smallest on record. Figure 1: U.S. wheat planted area by class Economic Research Service Situation and Outlook WHS-17d April 13, 2017 Wheat Chart Gallery will be updated on April 13, 2017. The next release is May 12, 2017. -------------- Approved by the World Agricultural

More information

Crops Marketing and Management Update

Crops Marketing and Management Update Crops Marketing and Management Update Department of Agricultural Economics Princeton REC Dr. Todd D. Davis Assistant Extension Professor -- Crop Economics Marketing & Management Vol. 2016 (4) April 22,

More information

U.S. Agriculture: Commodity Situation and Outlook

U.S. Agriculture: Commodity Situation and Outlook U.S. Agriculture: Commodity Situation and Outlook H. Scott Stiles Instructor - Economics University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture Farm Policy Education 2013 U.S. Crop Outlook Overview: Preliminary

More information

GROUNDNUT PRICES LIKELY TO BE AROUND Rs. 4800/q AT HARVEST

GROUNDNUT PRICES LIKELY TO BE AROUND Rs. 4800/q AT HARVEST GROUNDNUT PRICES LIKELY TO BE AROUND Rs. 4800/q AT HARVEST India is the second largest producer of groundnut in the world. On the global front, China leads in production, making up some 42 per cent of

More information

OUTLOOK FOR US AGRICULTURE

OUTLOOK FOR US AGRICULTURE Agricultural Outlook Forum 216 OUTLOOK FOR US AGRICULTURE Robert Johansson Chief Economist 25 February 216 Fig 2 Main themes for 216 1. The macroeconomy is weighing on trade, but there are reasons for

More information

Rising Food Prices in East Asia: Challenges and Policy Options

Rising Food Prices in East Asia: Challenges and Policy Options Rising Food Prices in East Asia: Challenges and Policy Options Luc Christiaensen,, World Bank, presentation at the Managing Vulnerability in East Asia workshop, Bangkok, June 25-26, 26, 2008 Outline Where

More information

Indonesia. Grain and Feed Update. Indonesia Grain and Feed Update July 2013

Indonesia. Grain and Feed Update. Indonesia Grain and Feed Update July 2013 THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Indonesia Grain

More information

Veal Price Forecast. October 2015

Veal Price Forecast. October 2015 Veal Price Forecast October 2015 VEAL PRICE FORECAST OCTOBER 2015 Veal Light Production Veal prices in 2015 have been stronger than anticipated and are expected to continue to show year-over-year increases

More information

Dairy Outlook. January By Jim Dunn Professor of Agricultural Economics, Penn State University. Market Psychology

Dairy Outlook. January By Jim Dunn Professor of Agricultural Economics, Penn State University. Market Psychology Dairy Outlook January 2015 By Jim Dunn Professor of Agricultural Economics, Penn State University Market Psychology Dairy prices have fallen in the past month, especially butter prices. The dollar is still

More information

Emerging Global Trade Patterns: USDA s Long-term Agricultural Projections

Emerging Global Trade Patterns: USDA s Long-term Agricultural Projections Emerging Global Trade Patterns: USDA s Long-term Agricultural Projections Midwest Agriculture s Ties to the Global Economy Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago November 28, 217 Chicago Jim Hansen, Ph.D. USDA,

More information

Fresh Peaches and Cherries: World Markets and Trade

Fresh Peaches and Cherries: World Markets and Trade United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Fresh Peaches and Cherries: World Markets and Trade Fresh Peach/Nectarine: 2014/15 Highlights Global production in 2014/15 of peaches/nectarines

More information

Dairy Outlook. April By Jim Dunn Professor of Agricultural Economics, Penn State University. Market Psychology

Dairy Outlook. April By Jim Dunn Professor of Agricultural Economics, Penn State University. Market Psychology Dairy Outlook April 2017 By Jim Dunn Professor of Agricultural Economics, Penn State University Market Psychology The Class III price in March was $1.07 lower than in February, while the Class IV price

More information

ISSN Food Outlook BIANNUAL REPORT ON GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS

ISSN Food Outlook BIANNUAL REPORT ON GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS ISSN 0251-1959 Food Outlook BIANNUAL REPORT ON GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS October 2015 The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any

More information

Keywords: Asparagus officinalis L., green asparagus, white asparagus, consumption, export, domestic, hemispheres, canned, fresh, frozen

Keywords: Asparagus officinalis L., green asparagus, white asparagus, consumption, export, domestic, hemispheres, canned, fresh, frozen 2005 UPDATE OF THE WORLD S ASPARAGUS PRODUCTION AREAS, SPEAR UTILIZATION, YIELDS AND PRODUCTION PERIODS (To be published in the Proceedings of the XI International Asparagus Symposium in Acta Horticulturae)

More information

The U.S. Over-Supply of Oil is Ending

The U.S. Over-Supply of Oil is Ending The U.S. Over-Supply of Oil is Ending Pay-It-Forward Network Art Berman November 17, 217 Slide 1 The U.S. Over-Supply of Oil is Ending The U.S. Over-Supply of Oil is Ending 11 WTI Price Stocks 239 213

More information

An overview of global cement sector trends

An overview of global cement sector trends An overview of global cement sector trends Insights from the Global Cement Report 1 th Edition XXX Technical Congress FICEM-APCAC 2 September, 213 Lima, Peru Thomas Armstrong International Cement Review

More information

Feed Grain Outlook June 2, 2014 Volume 23, Number 33

Feed Grain Outlook June 2, 2014 Volume 23, Number 33 June 2, Today s Newsletter Market Situation Crop Progress 1 Corn Use 2 Outside Markets 3 Marketing Strategies Corn Marketing Plan 5 Upcoming Reports/Events 6 Market Situation Crop Progress. This afternoon

More information

2017 China Apple Crop Outlook. SDIC Zhonglu Fruit Juice Company Zhonglu America Corporation Michael Choi

2017 China Apple Crop Outlook. SDIC Zhonglu Fruit Juice Company Zhonglu America Corporation Michael Choi 2017 China Apple Crop Outlook SDIC Zhonglu Fruit Juice Company Zhonglu America Corporation Michael Choi 1 2016 Crop Review 2 2016 Crop Utilization 3 2017 Crop Forecast 4 Apple Export, Import, Apple Price

More information

Market Overview. Southwestern Fertilizer Conference. July 2017

Market Overview. Southwestern Fertilizer Conference. July 2017 Market Overview Southwestern Fertilizer Conference July 2017 Forward Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements" (within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation

More information

U.S. 2013/14 Wheat Year in Review: Smaller Supplies and Higher Exports Lower Ending Stocks

U.S. 2013/14 Wheat Year in Review: Smaller Supplies and Higher Exports Lower Ending Stocks United States Department of Agriculture Electronic Outlook Report from the Economic Research Service www.ers.usda.gov WHS-2015-1 January 2015 U.S. 2013/14 Wheat Year in Review: Smaller Supplies and Higher

More information

Agrium: Growing Across the Value Chain

Agrium: Growing Across the Value Chain Agrium: Growing Across the Value Chain February 2009 Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements. Such forwardlooking statements involve known

More information

STATISTICS ON WORLD PRODUCTION, EXPORT, IMPORT, PRICES AND UTILIZATION OF RICE: REPORT COMPILED BY: IQRA JUNEJO

STATISTICS ON WORLD PRODUCTION, EXPORT, IMPORT, PRICES AND UTILIZATION OF RICE: REPORT COMPILED BY: IQRA JUNEJO STATISTICS ON WORLD PRODUCTION, EXPORT, IMPORT, PRICES AND UTILIZATION OF RICE: REPORT COMPILED BY: IQRA JUNEJO 1 TABLE OF CONTENT S:NO CONTENT PAGE # 1 Acknowledgement 3 2 Rice sector of Pakistan 4 3

More information

Decision enabling cash market analysis & price outlook. Report Summary Last closing USD (+16.00) per MT as on October 11, 2013

Decision enabling cash market analysis & price outlook. Report Summary Last closing USD (+16.00) per MT as on October 11, 2013 Decision enabling cash market analysis & price outlook For the week beginning Oct 15, 213 Argentina Soy Oil 1 Month Forward Fundamental Summary Report Summary Last closing USD 93. (+16.) per MT as on October

More information

South Africa s maize crop is generally in good condition across the country. The areas that started the season on a

South Africa s maize crop is generally in good condition across the country. The areas that started the season on a 20 April 2018 South African Agricultural Commodities Weekly Wrap The weather remains a key focus in the local agricultural market but could have a different impact on crops than the past couple of weeks.

More information

Corn & Soybeans. Corn (source WASDE) Soybean (source WASDE)

Corn & Soybeans. Corn (source WASDE) Soybean (source WASDE) Corn & Soybeans Corn (source WASDE) Estimate for the 2015-16 Season Global and US outlook Soybean (source WASDE) Estimate for the 2015-16 Season Global and US outlook Global ending stocks Corn and Soybeans

More information

Bunge - Wheat Market update. IAOM Manila 2012

Bunge - Wheat Market update. IAOM Manila 2012 Bunge - Wheat Market update IAOM Manila 2012 Bunge Today Key Facts Net Sales: $59 Billion Employees: ~35,000 Facilities: ~400 Countries of Operations: 30+ 6% 9% 12% 19% Average Net Operating Assets Agribusiness

More information

Analysis & Comments. Livestock Marketing Information Center State Extension Services in Cooperation with USDA. National Hay Situation and Outlook

Analysis & Comments. Livestock Marketing Information Center State Extension Services in Cooperation with USDA. National Hay Situation and Outlook Analysis & Comments Livestock Marketing Information Center State Extension Services in Cooperation with USDA April 2, 2015 Letter #12 www.lmic.info National Hay Situation and Outlook The 2014 calendar

More information

This Week. World Wheat Production and Markets 1

This Week. World Wheat Production and Markets 1 January 16, 2012 World Wheat Production and Markets With Western Canadian farmers getting prepared to market their future wheat crops without a Canadian Wheat Board as it presently exists, a review of

More information

Agriculture in A changing world. Dr. Agnes M. Kalibata Minister of State in charge of Agriculture (Rwanda)

Agriculture in A changing world. Dr. Agnes M. Kalibata Minister of State in charge of Agriculture (Rwanda) Agriculture in A changing world Dr. Agnes M. Kalibata Minister of State in charge of Agriculture (Rwanda) Characteristics of Agriculture in Africa Largest contributor to GDP (32%) Main source of income

More information

Wouldn t it be wonderful if someone. Merchandisers Corner

Wouldn t it be wonderful if someone. Merchandisers Corner Merchandisers Corner While you don t have a crystal ball, gathering meaningful market information can give you much more accurate price forecasts. By Diana Klemme, Vice President, Grain Service Corp.,

More information

U.S. food, seed, and industrial use of corn. Other 3,000 2,000 1,000

U.S. food, seed, and industrial use of corn. Other 3,000 2,000 1,000 FDS-10f June 14, 2010 Feed Outlook Allen Baker albaker@ers.usda.gov Edward Allen ewallen@ers.usda.gov Heather Lutman hlutman@ers.usda.gov Record Corn Ethanol Use for Ethanol Expected Higher Contents Domestic

More information

Global Wheat Trends. World wheat production and consumption

Global Wheat Trends. World wheat production and consumption The global wheat market over the past 10-15 years has proven to be relatively static with low-level growth in consumption and little growth in the amount of trade. Along with the United States, Canada,

More information

Yara International ASA SEB Investment Grade seminar

Yara International ASA SEB Investment Grade seminar Yara International ASA SEB Investment Grade seminar 24 Aug 2017 Thor Giæver, Investor Relations Safe operations is our first priority 4,5 4,0 TRI (Total recordable injuries 12-month rolling) 1 3,5 3,0

More information

The World Cotton Situation * Terry Townsend, Executive Director Armelle Gruere, Statistician. Projections to 2020

The World Cotton Situation * Terry Townsend, Executive Director Armelle Gruere, Statistician. Projections to 2020 INTERNATIONAL COTTON ADVISORY COMMITTEE 1629 K Street NW, Suite 72, Washington, DC 26 USA Telephone (22) 463-666 Fax (22) 463-695 e-mail secretariat@icac.org The World Cotton Situation * Terry Townsend,

More information

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates United States Department of Agriculture

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates United States Department of Agriculture ISSN 1554-9089 Office of the Chief Economist World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates United States Department of Agriculture Agricultural Marketing Service Farm Service Agency Economic Research

More information

Cattle Market Situation and Outlook

Cattle Market Situation and Outlook Cattle Market Situation and Outlook Rebuilding the Cow Herd Series March 28, 2007 Falls City, TX Coordinated by: Dennis Hale-Karnes CEA Ag & Charlie Pfluger-Wilson CEA Ag Prepared and presented by: Larry

More information

Price Monitoring for Food Security in the Kyrgyz Republic

Price Monitoring for Food Security in the Kyrgyz Republic Issue 18 May 2017 Price Monitoring for Food Security in the Kyrgyz Republic Monthly monitoring and outlook of basic food prices in the Kyrgyz Republic Highlights and outlook for the next few months Between

More information