Natural Resource Security: Water, Food, and Energy. Sylvia Lee March 6, 2014

Transcription

1 Natural Resource Security: Water, Food, and Energy Sylvia Lee March 6, 2014

2 We define global threats as those things which can bring humanity to our knees, alone or through cascading. negative effects made worse by factors unique to these new times. 2

3 Energy Insecurity Food Insecurity Systemic interdependencies and global risks Precarious global markets 3

4 Natural Resource Security is climbing up the national and global agenda Significant scarcity challenges for a number of key natural resources with potential impact on US security. The impacts of climate change may increase the frequency, scale, and complexity of future missions Our actions to increase energy and water security will increase the resiliency of our installations and help mitigate these effects. 4

5 Simplified Nexus Schematic From: World Economic Forum Global Risk Report

6 Underlying trends: Population growth Growth of middle class & associated consumption Shift to a more fractured, multipolar world order Increasing global water demand Increasing global food demand Deforestation Increased meat production Ecosystems destruction and biodiversity loss Climate change Increasing global energy demand Increased water intensive energy production (+ nuclear, unconventional gas) Energy resource competition Competition for land Water availability Increasing role of public enterprises (state-owned energy and infrastructure companies, sovereign wealth funds) Food availability Challenges to nascent systems of governance for energy extraction Increased frequency of extreme weather events (floods, droughts, hurricanes) Biofuels production (crop-based) Shock-induced food policy measures (food stores, hoarding, subsidies) Food price rise and volatility Energy price rise and volatility (oil and coal) Financial speculation States with Scarce Energy Resources: Local political economy impacts ALL LOCATIONS mediated through State strength / resiliency Economic strength / income distribution Government effectiveness / provision of basic services Rule of law / corruption Political stability Regional / International support Development and humanitarian assistance a Peacekeeping/conf lict mediation Investment and financial flow safeguards Resource sharing agreements IMPACTS Examples of potential knockon impacts: Economic growth / potential Poverty reduction / protection of human rights (including fulfilment of basic needs for food and water) Political stability Source: Global Witness 6

7 Population Explosion Change in Global Order Governance Consumerism System Blindness Increase Consumption Short Term Thinking Waste Changing Diets Environmental Degradation Attention Deficit C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Lack of Moral Conviction Leadership

8 Population Explosion Change in Global Order Governance Consumerism Decision Making Tools Changing Diets Environmental Degradation C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Data and Information Increase Consumption Waste Attention Deficit Governance Leadership 8

9 Data and Information 9

10 High frequency, high resolution satellite imagery improves crop monitoring Allows monitoring of crops in small fields and almost real time, small fields Provides dramatic jump in ability to forecast crop yields, predict failure, and strengthen famine early warning systems. BlackBridge MODIS Evapotranspiration estimates, 5m vs. 250m resolution in Senegal, by FEWS-NET 10

11 High resolution satellite imagery improves water resource monitoring BlackBridge- 5m resolution MODIS- 250m resolution Large number of the world s rivers can be monitored with high resolution imagery 11

12 On the ground reporting

13 Decision Making Tools 13

14 Over 50% of irrigated agriculture in areas of high or extremely high stress Source: WRI Aqueduct, Siebert et al Global Map of Irrigation Areas

15 Water stress will increase in many irrigated areas by 2025 (Based on IPCC Scenario A1b) Source: WRI Aqueduct 2011; Water stress data from The Coca-Cola Company. Siebert et al Global Map of Irrigation Areas

16 Water insecurity threatens North American shale energy development Source: CERES 2014 Hydraulic Fracturing and Water Stress

17 Water insecurity threatens energy security in China

18 Governance 18

19 Creative tools to strengthen governance - Security gaming to surface challenges, understand complexities, and identify solutions for managing resources. - Track 2 and 3 dialogues to build trust, and facilitate collaboration. - Support efforts to create new forms of governance. 19

20 Thank you 20