Analyses of woody biomass supply systems costs in Europe. Fulvio Di Fulvio, Ola Lindroos, Nicklas Forsell

Transcription

1 Analyses of woody biomass supply systems costs in Europe Fulvio Di Fulvio, Ola Lindroos, Nicklas Forsell

2 Increasing competition for roundwood

3 3

4 Sub unit level G4M Geographical based units 1x1 km Sub unit > Management Final felling Selective cutting Thinning Forest type (C, B) Tree size Harvest m 3 /ha Distance to road Slope Road Tr. Distance Fuel consumption per hour Hourly cost in ref. country Fuel consumption/m 3 Fixed Labor Operation Time consumption per m 3 F (tree size, harvest, distance, slope) s energy consumption/m 3 Country cost Adaptation s fuel consumption/m 3 s CO 2 emissions/m 3 RADR PPP Diesel price Cost per unit of product (m 3 ) Labor time per m 3 Labor time per hour Cost supply curves incl. road transportation s cost/m 3 s labor time/m 3

5 Selected harvesting and transportation systems CTL=cut to length method, WT=whole tree method HA=harvester, MFP=motor-manual felling & processing, MF= motor-manual felling FO=forwarder, SKL=skidder + logs, SKW= skidder + whole trees, CYW= cable yarder + whole trees PCH= processor head on excavator, PCM= motor-manual processing, TR WD= transportation of roundwood FO LR = forwarder + logging residues, CH=chipping, TR WC= transportation of woodchips

6 Forest plots features 1) Biophysical decisional Support matrix for allocating harvesting systems to geographically explicit harvesting units Is Slope >50% yes 4 Is 50% Slope>35% Is soil fertility Is DBH Is soil moist peatland? yes high? yes yes >50 cm? yes 8 Is soil moist peatland? yes 4 Is DBH >50 cm? yes Is soil moist peatland? yes Is DBH >50 cm? yes 8 Is DBH >50 cm? yes 7 2 HRU = Altitude & Slope & Soil Is broadleaves &DBH>40cm? yes 1 PX5 Altitude class, Slope class, Soil Class 2 PX5 Altitude class (m): 0 300, , , and > 2500; Slope class (deg): 0 3, 3 6, 6 10, 10 15, 15 30, and > 50; Soil texture class: coarse, medium, fine, stony and peat;

7 2) Literature Validation Mec(%) findings 3) Evolution of mechanization index Source: Metla, 2008

8 Collection of literature time consumption models (min/m3) Conifers Broadleaves Thinning Adaptation of TC based on spatial explicit parameters: - Average Stem Volume (Dbh, H) -Removal density (m 3 /ha) -Extraction distance -Slope adaptation (slope classes)

9 Hourly Cost Parameters collected from Reference Countries Ch tot j = 2 co aj Purchase price ($) Operational ($/SMH) Labor ($/SMH) Reference country Source Harvester Sweden SLU Forwarder Sweden SLU Chipper Sweden SLU Chainsaw Austria BWF Skidder Austria BWF Cable yarder Austria BWF Processor on excavator Austria BWF C ref ($) = Purchase power parity exchange rate as a long term indicator (based on GDP) compared to market exchange rates

10 Cost benchmarking co fl j = co Use globally available indicators: ecomy, policy, risk, taxation, social security, environment, infrastructures Consider long term dynamics Minimize the effect of short term variation 10

11 Country Trade Tariff RADR PPP ratio Labor cost/wage ratio Fuel price ratio Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom Ecometrics (globally available; min 130 Countries) The international trade tariffs World Bank: (average of last 5 years available ). RADR were calculated on the basis of the ICRG, International Country Risk Guide, (5 years average). The PPP was obtained from the World Bank: (average of last 5 years available ). The indirect labor costs on the wages were PWC (2012) and from the ILO database The fuel prices were obtained from GIZ (2013), taxation (VAT) on fuels was obtained from the IEA (2014) and European Commission (2014) Reference country for projecting the harvester costs to the EU Countries

12 Developing a method for cost adaptations to Country border Fixed cost inputs: Purchase price, depreciation & Interests on production items >Risk Adjusted Discount Rates,Trade Tariffs, shipment costs, taxes Labor cost: Wages, benefits and overhead costs >Purchase Power Parity ratio, minimum wages, social security costs, taxation Variable cost inputs: Fuels >Fuel price ratio Maintenance, repairs and other running costs > PPP ratio, Environment Validation of extrapolated costs with a pool of experts in forest engineering

13 Experts validation with harmonized cost accounting template Data received from 15 Countries: Australia Brazil Canada France Germany Italy Japan Latvia Norway Portugal Slovenia South Africa Spain Sweden North Sweden South US Est West Virginia US North Maine US West

14 Validation of explanatory ecometrics (x) R 2 =48.20% P j = K + γ 0 + γ 1 ln(icrg j )+ε R 2 =51.00% Cl j = R 2 =25.9% R 2 =49.50% r j = γ 0 + γ 1 ln(icrg j )+ε co fl j = co 14

15 Geographically explicit modeling of transportation routes from forest units (5x5 km) to facilities >shortest routes based on the open street map EU

16 Load capacities (Lc) for a truck and trailer according to infrastrutural limitations

17 Country Pulpmill Power Plant Applied density of facilities (N) City size (population 1 000) (N) (N) Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom Proxy on Location of Hubs Number of hubs for each Country AVERAGE NUMBER forest biomass plants pulpmills > Define the City Size

18 Cost supply curves Logging residues in the EU Current Prices Remote forests Forests close to facility on flat terrain

19 Cost mapping (eg. logging residues in Sweden) Comparing supply systems in a spatial explicit optimization

20 Benchmarking Sweden

21 Future development Production costs for plantations Stumpage prices adaptation More detail on on forest management costs Explicit modeling of extraction distances from forests to roads (eg. Hansen et al. maps) Evolution of forest mechanization Optimization of harvesting systems (GAMS) > MIN (Cost)