European forest sector carbon

Transcription

1 European forest sector carbon - future role of forest resource projections Gert-Jan Nabuurs Helsinki 16 March 06

2 Estimates for European forests Early inventory based assessments Recent advancements Future challenges

3 C sink in European forests/biosphere Carbon sink (Gt C a -1 ; positive sign: sink) Forest and woody biomass (IPCC) (1) Land use change and forestry (IPCC) (1) Biomass (Inventory) (2) Biomass+Harvest+Residues (Inventory) Forest stand (Eddy flux) (2) (3) European Community Forest stand (Eddy flux) (4) Biomass+Soil (C pools) (5) Soil only (C pools) (5) Trees (Inventory) (6) Biomass (Inventory) Biomass+Harvest+Residues (Inventory) (2) (2) West and Central Europe Biomass (Inventory) (7) European Continent Terrestrial biosphere (Inverse model) (8) Terrestrial biosphere (Inverse model) Terrestrial biosphere (Inverse model) Terrestrial biosphere (Inverse model) (11) (9) (10) Dolman et al (1) EEA/ETC Air Emissions 1999; (2) Kauppi and Tomppo 1993; (3) Martin 1998; (4) Martin et al. 1998; (5) Schulze et al. 2000; (6) Nabuurs et al. 1997; (7) Kauppi et al. 1992; (8) Bousquet et al. 1999; (9) Kaminski et al. 1999; (10) Rayner et al. 1997; (11) Ciais et al. 1995

4 3. The methods Flux (Pg C ) 1 fig4_eurasia European historical balance (own paper) Historic land use change Eddy flux Mesoscale -1 modelling -1.5 Inverse modelling Agr statistics Biome models? Proces models Forest inventories Remote sensing Experiments Soil monitoring

5 Early inventory based assessments

6 Early assessments (late eighties early nineties ) Simple, still very different Various compartments included Confusion over NPP, NEP, NBP static conversion of stemwood volume to aboveground biomass Often soil neglected

7 Development of user friendly tools CO2FIX, GORCAM, CASMOFOR, FULLCAM From mid nineties onwards Comparison of managed with unmanaged forest C balance Carbon stock (tonne C/ha) emission reduction 350 w ood products 300 Soil Biomass Time (yr) unmanaged managed

8 Methods: C balancing on the From simple assessments to upscaling basis of forest inventories Late nineties From single stand to Europe temporal variation is displayed as spatial variation ha Net carbon sink or source (Mg C ha-1 yr-1) (neg = source to atm) ha stand time (yr) 143 million ha Karjalainen et al.

9 Semi-dynamic temporal studies European forest sector carbon balance Tree Biomass Components of the total forest sector sink (Pg C y -1 ) Coarse woody debris Forest floor Mineral soil Wood Products Total (Nabuurs et al. 2003)

10 ;;;; Projecting the C balance Early 2000 s Area (1000 ha) Age class reserves Age class distribution European forests 1990 and 2050; large scale management models provide insight in drivers of the C balance (Nabuurs 2001) NBP per region (Karjalainen et al. 2003) ;;;;; ;;;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;; ;;;;; ;;;;; ;;

11 Converging estimates of the land C sink Janssens et al. Science 300

12 Recent advances Camels ( ) Carbo invent ( ) National systems (2004 present) Carbo Europe IP ( ) ADAM ( )

13 CAMELS: integration of methods Total Carbon stock AG+BG (g/m2) annual atm flux (g/m2) Total Carbon stock AG+BG (g/m2) annual atm flux (g/m2) % Age Class distribution % Age Class distribution % % years 10% 5% 0% % % % years 15% 10% 5% 0%

14 CAMELS: integration of methods CarbonCycleDataAssimilationSystem (CCDAS) Misfit to observations Atmospheric Transport Model: TM2 Biosphere Model: BETHY Misfit 1 CO 2 station concentration Fluxes Model parameter Forward Modeling: Parameters > Misfit Inverse Modeling: Parameter optimization FAPAR Gobron et al.

15 2003 drought: Ciais et al. 2005

16 Carbo invent progress in inventory based assessment of biomass and soil C stock and fluxes Integration of bottom up and top down

17 Carbo invent Biomass expansion factors (Lehtonen et al) Uncertainty analysis (peltoniemi et al)

18 Carbo invent Mineral soil C content 0-50 cm O layer C content

19 Applications of previously mentioned material: Potential for bio energy Ecologically constrained energy potential from forest residues Meyer, Lindner et al, EFI for EEA 1200 PJ in 2010 ~ 18 Mt C

20 National systems LULUCF Lead to progress in insights (e.g. programme of today) Highly variable between countries JRC has harmonisation task for the EU reasonably harmonised on forest biomass Worse on soils, Non CO2 GHG s Worse on LUC

21 future challenges:

22 policy discussion is moving on: adaptation and mitigation while Europe lacks multi sectoral econometric analyses of future carbon sequestration needed.. multi scale forest resource analyses, with econometrics, land use changes & trade multi functionality: carbon-water-biodiv: integrated land use analyses

23 ;;;; An outline and ideas ;;;;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;; ;;;;; ;;; Land Use/cover Biomass Productivity Scenario s Ancillary Cost / Technology data Integrated land use & econometrics Carbon supply curves

24 8 variables from 160,000 inventory plots Role of resource projections ;;;;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;;; ;;;;;;; ;;;;;;; ;;;;;;; ;;;;;;; ;;;;; ;;;;; ;;;;; ;;;;; ;;; ;;; ;;; ;;; ;;; ; ; ; ;

25 Making better use of GIS material

26 Linking single tree models to upscaling exercises

27 Possible results High resolution C balance, Carbo Europe IP Carbon supply curves US EPA, Murray et al.

28 Conclusion.. Large progress has been made over past decade Policy arena is moving on Still many processes are barely understood In both directions research should continue: a) understanding the processes, and b ) integrated, multi scale analyses

29 Thank you!