Exploring Coupled Dynamic Biogeochemical and Vegetation Models in Temperate Forest Ecosystems of the Eastern United States

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1 Exploring Coupled Dynamic Biogeochemical and Vegetation Models in Temperate Forest Ecosystems of the Eastern United States Todd McDonnell E&S Environmental Chemistry Salim Belyazid - Luc Bonten - Chris Clark - Gert Jan Reinds - Tim Sullivan 26th CCE Workshop and 32nd ICP M&M Task Force Meeting Dessau, Germany, April 2016

2 Acknowledgements Funding Agencies US Environmental Protection Agency National Park Service Contributors Mike Bell Tamara Blett Wendy Cass Troy Evans Abigail Hyduke Chad Keyser Janet Mol Jennifer Phelan Sam Simkin Wieger Wamelink Richard Waring 2

3 Questions to Explore VSD+-PROPS and ForSAFE-Veg 1. Do we have sufficient input data? MetHyd, GrowUp, PROFILE, VSD+, ForSAFE, PROPS, VEG At what spatial scales? 2. Considerations unique to Eastern U.S.? 3. Applicability to other regions of the U.S.? 4. How do the models compare? Structure/function Results 3

4 Outline Model site locations VSD+-PROPS GrowUp parameterization Calibration of initial C pool and soil C:N Interpretation of PROPS results Veg 4

5 Existing U.S. Model Applications ForSAFE-Veg Rocky Mountains (McDonnell et al. 2014, Sverdrup et al. 2011) Sub-alpine, Veg calibration Hubbard Brook and Bear Brook (Phelan et al. 2016) 24 other Northeastern sites (Phelan/Clark, in prep) Expand beyond data intensive sites VSD+-PROPS Hubbard Brook and Southern Appalachian Mountains (McDonnell et al. in prep) 5

6 In Progress: VSD+-PROPS (all 3 sites) and ForSAFE-Veg (PR and CC) Site Attribute Land Management VSD+PROPS Model Application Sites Hubbard Brook (HB) Piney River (PR) Cosby Creek (CC) White Shenandoah Great Smoky Mountains NF NP Mountains NP Model Sites Disturbance Early 1900s Early 1900s No major Harvest/hurricane Harvest Elevation (m) Annual Mean Temperature ( C) Dominant Maple-Beech- Mixed Oak- Mixed Oak- Vegetation Birch Black Cherry Sugar Maple Lithology argillic mafic argillic Other Model Data Availability ForSAFE-Veg MAGIC MAGIC 6

7 GrowUp pre-processor model Nutrient Uptake, Litterfall C and N Stem volume under natural rejuvenation: V (t) = V (t 1) + Gr max V t 1 K gr + V t 1 k turnover Initial Volume Volume increment Mortality 7

8 GrowUp pre-processor model Nutrient Uptake, Litterfall C and N Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) US Forest Service (Crookston and Dixon 2005) Based on forest growth measurements Forest inventory samples Undisturbed volume growth estimates Evaluate effects of fire, insects, pathogens Forest Type Group Name Northern hardwood Intermediate Oak Moist Oak/Cove hardwood Model Site Applied Hubbard Brook Piney River Cosby Creek 8

9 GrowUp pre-processor model Nutrient Uptake, Litterfall C and N FVS model output: Cosby Creek 9

10 VSD+ Calibration: Cosby Creek Manual: Two-step process Initial C pool = 19,000 g C/m2 Initial soil C:N = 17 Increased litterfall C by 120% Decreased initial soil C:N to 17 10

11 U.S. PROPS: 5-Dimensions soil ph + soil C:N + N deposition + Air temperature + Precipitation 20,857 relevés 5,246 species Used for U.S. PROPS (Version 1) PROPS models for 327 species (n > 25) (out of 1,876 species found at 1,214 survey sites) 11

12 N Deposition at relevés used for U.S. PROPS 12

13 N Deposition at relevés used for U.S. PROPS All sites Sites in north and northeast (red box) Figure 9. Distribution of total N deposition among a) all sites (n = 1214) and b) sites located in 13

14 Results for Cosby Creek Ambient Deposition Scenario: Cosby Creek VSD+ - Soil ph - Soil C:N - N deposition - Precipitation - Air temperature PROPS - Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) - 6 indicator species 14

15 Isolines for Cosby Creek Indicator Species 15

16 Hubbard Brook Cosby Creek Piney River

17 ForSAFE-Veg Hubbard Brook Phelan et al. (2016) Piney River In progress Model Sites Cosby Creek In progress 17

18 Veg: Table Complete for all species (n=73) Physiological traits Scientific Name Common name t-in (1-4) t-out (1-4) Root (1-4) Shading height Palatability Acer saccharum sugar maple Trillium erectum red trillium Dennstaedtia punctilobula hayscented fern Climatic response Tmin Tmax Light class Light variability Moisture class Dry tail Wet tail Acer saccharum sugar maple LV4 3.5 DT2 DT2 Trillium erectum red trillium LV2 3 DT2 DT2 Dennstaedtia punctilobula hayscented fern LV3 2 DT3 DT3 Soil chemical niches Nitrogen Nitrogen variability class (long tail) ph Class Acid Tail Basic tail Acer saccharum sugar maple 2.5 NV2 3 AT2 BT3 Trillium erectum red trillium 2 NV3 2 AT1 BT2 Dennstaedtia punctilobula hayscented fern 2 NV4 2 AT3 BT1 18

19 Veg: Species Response metric Niche Alignment Quantify alignment between simulated abiotic conditions and optimum specified Veg niches Use to compare with PROPS output for occurrence probability Do VSD+-PROPS and ForSAFE-Veg show similar trends in biological response? If not, why? 19

20 Veg: Species Response metric Changes in niche alignment for: Positive indicator species - Same sets as PROPS Undesirable (invasive) species Critical Loads/Target Loads 20

21 Where to next? Finalize work in progress U.S. PROPS Version 2? Regional VSD+-PROPS? Expanded ForSAFE-Veg? Other model chains? 21

22 Thank You References Crookston NL and Dixon GE The forest vegetation simulator: A review of its structure, content, and applications. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture 49(1): McDonnell TC, Belyazid S, Sullivan TJ, Sverdrup H, Bowman WD, Porter EM Modeled subalpine plant community response to climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition in Rocky Mountain National Park, USA. Environmental Pollution 187: Phelan J, Belyazid S, Jones P, Cajka J, Buckley J, Clark C Assessing the Effects of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Soil Properties and Plant Diversity in Sugar Maple Beech Yellow Birch Hardwood Forests in the Northeastern United States: Model Simulations from 1900 to Water Air And Soil Pollution 227(84). Sverdrup H, McDonnell TC, Sullivan TJ, Nihlgard B, Belyazid S, Rihm B, Porter E, Bowman WD, Geiser L Testing the Feasibility of Using the ForSAFE-VEG Model to Map the Critical Load of Nitrogen to Protect Plant Biodiversity in the Rocky Mountains Region, USA. Water Air And Soil Pollution 223: