Ensuring Water in a Changing World

Transcription

1 Ensuring Water in a Changing World Climate Change & The Global Water Cycle: Recent Regional Experiences Soroosh Sorooshian Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing University of California Irvine Association of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO) webinar series on the human health effects of climate change. April 29 th, 2008

2 University of California Irvine (UCI) and Arizona (UA)

3 CHRS & Affiliates: A truly International Team and many more

4 A Unique Planet: Blue, Green and alive!

5 Atmosphere of Earth vs. Mars and Venus Earth's atmosphere: 78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen, and 1% other gases

6 Distribution of Freshwater

7 Distribution of Fresh Water Use USA China 380 India 7.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 41.7% 45.2% Water Source Fresh Water Use (10 9 Cubic Meters) Water Use 13.1% 87.0% 93.0% Agriculture Domestic Industry 117 Russia Japan Brazil 23.0% % 60.0% 18.6% % 59.4% 49.5% 22.0% 17.1% 70.3 Iran 92% 6% 2%

8 Increasing Population: Number of Mega Cities Projected Global Population: 8.3 Billion by 2025 Global Urban population 1970: ~37% 2010: ~53%

9 The Big Question as to Whether Our Planet Is Warming Up and The Hydrologic Cycle is Intensifying, has been addressed by The Recent IPCC Report

10 Evidence for reality of climate change: Glaciers Melting 1909 Muir Glacier, Alaska 2000 Toboggan Glacier Alaska Alpine glacier, Austria Provided By: Kevin Trenberth

11 Global Temperature Anomalies: 2007 Tied (with 1998) for the second warmest year (2005 Warmest) Source: NASA GISS 2007

12 Global Warming And Hydrologic Cycle Connection Heating Temperature Evaporation Water Holding Capacity Atmospheric Moisture Green House Effect Consequence: Intensification of Hydrologic cycle Source: Gi-Hyeon Park

13 Observed changes: Heavy Precipitation From : Total annual precipitation across the contiguous U.S. increased 7% Heavy daily Precipitation events have increased by 20% Facts from Observations Rainfall associated with warmer climates are more due to extreme events compared to colder climates 10 0 Confidence Index Source: Tom Karl NCDC-NOAA 2007

14 Record Floods: Among the worst Natural Disasters

15 Record Floods: Among the worst Natural Disasters

16 Los Angeles (1955)

17 Extreme Precipitation events: Texas, USA ( ) Event total precipitation (mm) Jun- 48 Jun- 52 Jun- 56 Jun- 60 Jun- 64 Jun- 68 Jun- 72 Jun- 76 Jun- 80 Jun- 84 Jun- 88 Jun- 92 Jun- 96 Jun- 00 Total precipitation (mm) and duration (days) of extreme events in Texas Normal annual precipitation in Texas is 650~750mm Source: J. Nielsen-Gammon et al., Event duration (days)

18 Changes in Peak Flows American River, California 250 American River Runoff Annual Maximum 1-Day Flow 225 Unimpaired Runoff at Fair Oaks ,000 cfs Water Year Red Line = Construction of Folsom Dam From: J. Andrew DWR-DFM

19 Observed changes: Drought Reconstruction Drought as documented in the paleoclimatic record? Within the past millennium there have been severe droughts in both the western U.S. and Midwest that have lasted for multiple decades (50 years) Confidence 0 Index Source: Tom Karl NCDC-NOAA 2007

20 000-year Climate history of central U.S. The US Breadbasket: The Mid-West Dust Bowl 2000 yrs. ago Today >100 year megadroughts 1930 s dustbowl 16th century megadrought Source: Overpeck 2004

21 Ensuring Water in a Changing World Challenge of predicting the future Climate: While we Attempt to Improve Our Scientific Understanding of the Climate System, We Face Major Issues With Uncertainties in Information We Can Provide to Users

22 Climate Predictions into the Future! Some Results at the Seasonal to Inter-annual and Longer time Scales:

23 Climate model Predictions about the future? globally DJF Precipitation Changes CM2 - Old model CM3 - Updated model Significant differences in regional outcomes! Source: Hadley Center (Climate Change Projections)

24 What do climate models tell us about the future? Model annual precipitation trends over 21 st century Hadley Center: Southwest dries out What to tell water managers? Canadian Center: Southwest extremely wet Source: US National Assessment Report, 2000

25 Canadian Prairie drought / km Source: Ronald Stewart

26 SEASONAL PREDICTIONS: Summer of Canada PREDICTION OBSERVATION Below Normal Above Normal Source: Ronald Stewart

27 (flooding at the end of the drought) St. Jean de Baptiste, Manitoba July 2005 Source: Ronald Stewart

28 Recent Extreme Conditions in the U.S. Southwest Normal Years Lake Powell, Colorado River, USA Sever Multi-year Drought through 2004 Source: J. Kane SRP 2004

29 Eye-Catching Article in Science Magazine

30 bserved changes: Drought Drought activity during the 20 th and early 21 st Century U.S. droughts show pronounced multi-year to multi-decadal variability, but no convincing evidence for long-term trends toward more or fewer events Confidence 0 Index Based on Palmer Drought Index Moderate to Extreme Drought Source: Tom Karl NCDC-NOAA 2007

31 Practices in Factoring in Climate and Extreme Events in Water Resources: Engineering Approach: Control, Store, Use & Deliver for Multi-Purposes

32 A Century of Water Resources Development: Engineering success! Hoover Dam Glen Canyon Dam Central Arizona Project Aqueduct

33 Built-In Resiliency in water resources Systems! Hoover Dam Time of Construction = 1935 Total Storage Capacity = 38.6 BCM Annual Inflow = 15.4 BCM Drainage Area = 432,500 Km 2 Time to fill =2.5 Years Power Generation = 2,074 MW Glen Canyon Dam Time of Construction = 1963 Total Storage Capacity = 33.3 BCM Annual Inflow = 15.4 BCM Drainage Area = 280,570 Km 2 Time to fill = 2.24 Years Power Generation = 1,356 MW

34 Storage Capacity/Streamflow Relationship California Region 100% Colorado Basin 400% B. Imam, CHRS-UC Irvine

35 News From Space Satellite Observations

36 Remote Sensing Systems (Spectral Signal) Human Eye Visible Range 40 Satellite 20 0 Bare Soil Reflectance ( % ) Wavelength (µm) Healthy Vegetation Stressed Vegetation Fresh Snow Sea Water

37 urrent Meteorological and Earth Observing Satellites in Space

38 Precipitation Observations: Which to trust?? Sources: R. Fulton, D.-J. Seo. and J. Breidenbach, AMS Short-Course on QPE/QPF, 2002

39 Satellite Products: Promising future

40 A Key Requirement! Measurement of Rainfall is a Major Challenge

41 Temporal Scale Importance: Daily Precip. at 2 stations A local floods Monthly Amount 75 mm Frequency 6.7% Intensity 37.5 mm B soil moisture replenished virtually no runoff Amount 75 mm Frequency 67% Intensity 3.75 mm Source: K. Trenberth, NCAR

42 Water Quality Concerns

43 Available Resources

44 Satellite Products: Promising future

45 Satellite Products: Promising future

46 Global Flood Archive for

47 U.S. Drought Monitor ( Multi Agency Effort)

48 U.S. Drought Outlook ( Multi Agency Effort)

49 AHPS Flood Forecast system (U.S.A)

50 Monitoring of Global Fires from Space

51 Thank You For Listening The Rio Grande River, NM Photo: J. Sorooshian 2005