Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity Issues in the Canadian Boreal Biome: The Cumulative Effects of Human Disturbance and Changing Climate

Transcription

1 Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity Issues in the Canadian Boreal Biome: The Cumulative Effects of Human Disturbance and Changing Climate D W Schindler University of Alberta Edmonton, Canada

2 Global Forest Watch

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4 Lakes as % of surface area

5 Wetlands as % of landscape

6 S. Bayley

7 Boreal Ecosystem Services-2002 dollars Anielski and Wilson 2009

8 Market Value of Boreal Resources 2002 Dollars Anielski and Wilson 2009

9 Taxonomic breakdown (by percentage) of threatened boreal species Above numbers do not include aquatic spp. Total Boreal spp = Ruckstuhl et al. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. B (2008) Bradshaw, C.J.A. et al TREE

10 UTIKUMA LAKE

11 N. America in a Greenhouse Dominated World? 2 x CO2 Current 4 x CO2

12 16% of global soils are in permafrost. They contain 1672 Pg C (50% global below ground C.). Permafrost melt is expected to add 400 Pg C to atmosphere by Tarnocai et al. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 2009

13 Comparison of Carbon Storage in Boreal, Temperate, and Tropical Forests Carbon Stores-Boreal, Tropical and Temperate Forests Biome Area (x 10 6 ha ) Based on Kasischke, 2000 Soil Carbon (Pg) Plant Biomass Carbon (Pg) Total Carbon (Pg) Boreal Forest 1, ? Tropical forest 1, Temperat e forest 1, (One Pg [petagram]=one billion metric tonnes or one trillion kg) Woods Hole Res. Center 2007 after Kasischke 2000; Tarnocai et al 2009

14 CO 2 uptake by terrestrial vegetation Aquatic systems have been forgotten in landscape carbon flux measurements Inflow (DIC, DOC, POC) CH 4 evasion and ebullition CO 2 evasion (or invasion) Outflow (DIC, DOC, POC) Littoral sediments Carbon pool/biota (DIC, DOC, POC) Sedimentation (POC) Profundal sediments Benoy, G. et al. 2007

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16 Insect outbreaks enhanced by warming climate Dendroctonus ponderosae, 80% of BC s lodgepole pine by communities, families affected in B.C. 500,000 trees affected in Alberta and increasing 50 communities, 30,000 jobs at threat in AB Dendroctonus rufipennis, million ha in Alaska

17 Mountain pine beetle in Alberta Sustainable Resources Development

18 Est megatonnes CO 2 emitted by 2020 Choristo-neura fumeriina Dendroctonus rufipennis Dendroctonus ponderosae Kurz et al Nature

19 Canadian GCM Predicted increase in forest area burned under 3x CO 2 Hadley GCM Flannigan, M.D. et al Climatic Change but this is without recent insect damage. Ave %

20 Experimental Lakes Area June 1974 Schindler 1988 Bioscience

21 Experimental Lakes Area July 1980 Schindler 1988 Bioscience

22 Canadian Boreal Initiative 60% of Global standing water is in Boreal regions

23 Renewable Freshwater Resources Top 7 Countries % of global supply Brazil 12.4 Russia 10.0 Canada 6.5 Indonesia 6.5 USA 6.4 China 6.4 Colombia 4.8 Sprague 2006

24 unknown Ave. Annual Runoff, mm <50

25 Schindler and Donahue 2006 PNAS Bow Glacier in 1897 Source: John Collie, Whyte Museum, Banff AB and in 2002 (Source: Graeme Pole, 2003)

26 Relative change in summer flow in the Peace and Oldman Rivers At Peace River and Lethbridge, AB Peace River (Peace River) % Oldman River (Lethbridge) % 160 % of initial flow Year Schindler and Donahue 2006 PNAS

27 Lewis et al. in press Aq. Ecosystem Health

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29 Temperate reservoirs Tropical reservoirs >1000

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31 Reservoirs, some Reservations: Pollute fisheries with mercury Emit some greenhouse gases Displace people and wildlife habitat Cause channel morphology to change Deprive downstream users of water Deprive downstream fishes of habitat

32 Oil Sands: Surface Mining vs. In Situ Extraction Deep oil sands cover an area almost 50x greater than mineable deposits Perception: in situ oil sands = environmentally benign

33 Oil Sands- Scraping Bottom? National Geographic Mar 2009

34 250 Winter low flows, Athabasca River m 3 sec Oil sands development Slope: -1.5 m 3 sec -1 year Schindler et al Year

35 Projected maximum water diversions by oil sands mines, Athabasca River Basin. Source: Schindler et al. 2007

36 New industrial development (Petro Canada/UTS Fort Hills) along the eastern bank of the Athabasca River, on 12 August 08.

37 Suncor s Oil Sands Operation Mackenzie River Basin Board Mackenzie River Basin State of the Aquatic Ecosystem Report 2003.

38 PAHs? Aquifers? Hg? As?

39 Next slide shows simulation of future development footprint based development of existing leases

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41 Woodland caribou in decline in deep oil sands areas Courtesy: Wayne Lynch Source: Alberta Woodland Caribou Recovery Team. Alberta Woodland Caribou Recovery Plan 2004/ /14 (2005)

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43 Wolverine Fisher Marten Coyote

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45 Black throated green warbler

46 Red Breasted Nuthatch

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48 Guaranteed by Treaty 8 to ACFN Incursion of oil sands development on Treaty Lands

49 Global Forest Watch

50 Global Forest Watch

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53 Saving the Canadian Boreal Biome Substantial regulation of GHG now. Large conservation reserves protected from development (50%?). Include ecological services in economic analyses and development decisions. Strict policies on oil sands, forestry, hydroelectric development, shoreline development. Reduce motorized access to boreal regions. Enhanced use of integrated watershed approaches to reveal erosion of biogeochemical processes and ecosystem services.

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55 Needed: A better dialogue with decision makers

56 Politicians fiddle while Earth burns.

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58 160 Relative change in summer flow in the South Saskatchewan River at Saskatoon, SK 140 % of initial flow (-83.6%) Schindler and Donahue 2006 PNASYear

59 Permafrost in Northern Soils C. Tarnocai et al Global Biogeochemical Cycles. 18,782,000 km 2 (16% of global soils) in tundra and boreal regions Contain 1672 Pg carbon, 50% of below ground carbon on Earth Previous estimates were Pg Many papers record permafrost degradation CO 2, methane releases Estimated losses are up to 400 Pg C by 2100 (these numbers are poorly known)

60 Experimental Lakes Area August 1975 Schindler 1988 Bioscience

61 Experimental Lake Area June 1980 Schindler 1988 Bioscience

62 1800?? IPCC 2001 Tonnes carbon per hectare

63 Boreal Carbon Pool >25% of global terrestrial carbon pool (IPCC) 55-60% is in peatlands (113 Pg or 10 9 metric tonnes) ** 22-30% in forest soils (Lavoie et al. 2005) 5-15% in plant biomass (Lavoie et al. 2005) 33 Pg in lake sediments (Molot and Dillon 1995) 1672 Pg in permafrost in boreal + tundra (Tarnocai 2009)

64 Fragmentation Impacts Satellite image of in situ oil sands exploration Schematic of proportion of forest impacted

65 Rose Breasted Grosbeak

66 Bay Breasted Warbler

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68 8%