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1 Birds and Buffers on Military Lands The Impacts of Climate and Land-use Change Dennis Jongsomjit, Sam Veloz, Chrissy Howell, John Wiens PRBO Conservation Science Photos by Peter LaTourrette, Peter Knapp, and PRBO
2 Who Is PRBO? Founded 1965 Study Sites Long-term monitoring informs research Apply bird ecology to advance biodiversity conservation
3 Recent Focus Has Been Only On Climate Change What are the comparative impacts of climate change and land-use change around military bases in CA? What are the potential impacts of land-use change across a range of housing densities? How will these impacts vary regionally?
4 What are Department of Defense lands and why should we care? Zack Denning
5 DoD Land Ownership In CA Federal Gov t manages ~100 million acres of land DOD manages ~4 million acres (about 4%)
6 Military Mission and Responsibilities Maintain military readiness via testing and training
7 Military Mission and Responsibilities Compliance with Federal laws Responsible for the protection and management of all T&E species on their land Restricted access has resulted in the persistence of species and habitats otherwise unprotected beyond their borders
8 Species/100,000 ha PRBO Conservation Science DoD Lands Are Important To Listed Species The highest density of threatened, endangered, at-risk species than any other federal agency landowner Nearly 450 Threatened and Endangered species found on DoD lands Stein et al. BioScience 2008
9 Conflicts with climate and land-use change Sophie Webb
10 Landowners PRBO Conservation Science Climate Change May Cause Loss Of Species NPS USDA Forest Service BLM USFWS DOD BOR Change in Species Richness Wiens et al Report to DoD Legacy Resource Management Program
11 Conflicts With Land-Use Encroachment Urban and suburban areas are projected to nearly double by 2070 Exurban development is projected to triple
12 Effects On Birds/Habitat Well Documented Fragments existing nearby habitat Introduction of non-native species Changes to natural community Interactions with human communities
13 Consequences To DoD Lands Increasing isolation of species populations Increased reliance on protected habitat More time and money spent managing habitat Increased restrictions on military training and testing
14 Compare climate and land-use change Methods Sophie Webb
15 The Framework Model current bird distributions (52 special status species) Project models using future climate change Calculate changes from climate Calculate potential land-use impacts
16 Species Distribution Models Observational Data Environmental Data Spatial Prediction of Suitability Maxent 3.3.3
17 Urbanization Will Continue To Grow Year 2000 Year 2070 EPA 2009 Theobald 2005
18 3 Buffers Examined
19 Climate Impact Impact of climate or Future species projection Current species projection
20 Land-use Impact Impact of housing Always Future species projection remove Future housing Future species projection remove Current housing
21 Bases Grouped By Ecoregion
22 Results Sophie Webb
23 Urbanization impacts may be greater climate change San Joaquin Valley km Climate High Low Very Low km 5km 10km km
24 Urbanization impacts may be greater climate change San Joaquin Valley km Climate High Low Very Low km 5km 10km km
25 Low Density Housing May Have High Impacts Increasing buffer width shows larger influence of exurban density housing Central Coast 2km 5km 10km km km Climate High Low Very Low
26 Low Density Housing May Have High Impacts Increasing buffer width shows larger influence of exurban density housing Central Coast 2km 5km 10km km km Climate High Low Very Low
27 Climate Positives May Be Negated 0.05 Southwest km Climate High Low Very Low km 5km 10km 2 km 5 km 10 km
28 Regional Variation Calls For Regional Management Southwest Mojave Desert km 2 5km 5 km 10km km Sonoran Desert km 5km 10km 2 km 5 km km km Climate High Low km 5km 10km Very Low
29 Conclusions Urbanization has the potential to affect the suitability habitat more than climate change In some cases, increases in habitat suitability can be completely counteracted by urbanization Effects will depend on species specific sensitivity to urbanization Effects will vary regionally
30 Combined Impacts May Lead To Species seeking refuge on DoD lands Establishment of non-native or invasive species or threaten the population viability of native species Isolation, restricting species ability to shift and making them more susceptible to rapidly changing climate
31 Recommendations Habitat managers and planners need to take into account impacts beyond climate change Large potential impacts of low density housing suggest opportunities to reduce impacts through reductions in sprawl Buffers can benefit all stakeholders but will require cooperation.
32 Acknowledgments Funders DoD Legacy Program CA Landscape Conservation Cooperative Faucett Family Foundation NSF (DBI ) Anonymous PRBO donor Collaborators Mark Snyder Climate Change and Impacts Lab, UCSC Diana Stralberg, Grant Ballard - PRBO John Alexander - Klamath Bird Observatory C.J. Ralph - Redwood Sciences Lab Brian Sullivan - Cornell Lab of Ornithology Andrea Jones - Audubon California PRBO project leaders, Steven Phillips, interns and volunteers PRISM Climate Group
33 Thank You
34 Point Count Data Sources Data available via CA Avian Data Center Klamath Basin Bird Observatory Redwood Sciences Lab US Forest Service Filters Presence only used Breeding season/range Spatial accuracy
35 Citizen Data Sources Data available via CA Avian Data Center Filters Presence only used Breeding season/range Spatial accuracy 5km
36 The Urban Gradient Urbanization effects: Source: Marzluff 2005 Urban Ecosystems Habitat fragmentation Reduced vegetation Changes in predator community Fewer native species Higher predation rates Higher parasitism Blair 1996 Ecol. Applications., Marzluff 2005 Urban Ecosystems, Clergeau et al Condor, Wilcove 1985 Ecology, Marzluff and Restani 1999, Marzluff and Ewing Restoration Ecol. 2001, Donnely 2002 U.W.
37 Urban Densities CA population continues to grow Very low density urbanization continues growing at higher rates Housing Density Units per ha Difference 2000 to 2070 (ha) Very Low ,115,128 Low ,580 Medium - High > ,773
38 DoD Lands Are Important To Birds Birds are the top 9 out of the top 10 most heavily invested in taxa Over $373 million invested for these top 10 over the last 18 years
39 Wrangling The Data 8 Environmental Space Variables - Annual mean temp, precipitation of the driest quarter, annual precipitation
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