IMPROVING FEDERAL ENERGY DEVELOPMENT DECISIONS: THE USE OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICE VALUATION
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1 IMPROVING FEDERAL ENERGY DEVELOPMENT DECISIONS: THE USE OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICE VALUATION ROBERT WINTHROP SOCIOECONOMICS PROGRAM USDI BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT, WASHINGTON, DC. INTEGRATING ECOSYSTEM SERVICES INTO ENERGY DEVELOPMENT PLANNING AND MITIGATION ACES AND ECOSYSTEM MARKETS 2012
2 NATIONAL SYSTEM OF PUBLIC LANDS
3
4 BUILDING INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY TO USE ECOSYSTEM SERVICES INFORMATION Technical capacity to assess and value ecosystem services in routine decision-making BLM-USGS ecosystem services pilot studies Consistent metrics, models, and tools for the use of ecosystem services information National Ecosystem Services Partnership activities Landscape-scale data analysis and planning BLM s Rapid Ecoregional Assessments A decision framework for energy development which includes regional assessment and offsite mitigation BLM Solar Regional Mitigation Planning 4
5 BLM-USGS ECOSYSTEM SERVICES PILOT STUDIES Phase I: Comparative assessment of ecosystem services valuation methods and tools Focus: feasibility Setting: San Pedro watershed, SE Arizona Phase 2: Estimation of ecosystem services flows and values for a complex resource planning decision Focus: usefulness for decision-making Setting: Moab, Utah Master Leasing Plan 5
6 PROJECT DESIGN (PHASE 1 SAN PEDRO) Services Tools Scenarios Carbon InVEST Mesquite Removal Water ARIES Urban Growth Biodiversity Cultural Other Methods Water Augmentation 6
7 SAN PEDRO STUDY AREA 2,800 sq mi headwater of Lower Colorado River Basin: undammed, perennial flow Substantial previous research Ecologically important Well organized stakeholders Environmental concerns The study is only intended to inform BLM decisions, not governance of the whole watershed. 7
8 INVEST: INTEGRATED EVALUATION OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND TRADEOFFS InVEST is a family of free tools to map and value ecosystem goods and services Runs in ArcGIS Developed by the Natural Capital Project (WWF, TNC, Stanford University, and University of Minnesota) 8
9 ARIES: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE FOR ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ARIES is a free application for mapping and valuing ecosystem services Web-based application Incorporates probability estimates and maps flows of services Funded by NSF; developed by a consortium including UNEP, University of Vermont, and Conservation International 9
10 CRITERIA FOR EVALUATING TOOLS/METHODS 1. Does it measure ecosystem services or ecological processes? 2. Time requirements? 3. Open source? 4. Current level of development? 5. Scalable & generalizable? 6. Ability to incorporate multiple valuation perspectives? 7. Responsive to scenarios of potential change? 10
11 InVEST ARIES RESULTS: ARIES & INVEST MODELS Carbon storage (tons) Combined surface and groundwater Biodiversity No uncertainty measure Carbon storage ($) Surface water only No biodiversity model Includes uncertainty measures 11
12 Carbon (tons) Water yield (cubic meters) Habitat quality (relative SCENARIO RESULTS: MESQUITE MANAGEMENT InVEST Change in carbon storage 0-5,000-10,000-15,000-20,000-25,000-30,000-35,000-40,000 Change in water yield 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Change in habitat quality 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% 12
13 CONCLUSIONS The methods and tools varied greatly in the time required for analysis. Well-defined scenarios and appropriate datasets are essential for models to produce useful results. Significant opportunities exist to reduce projectby-project time and data requirements. The capabilities and usability of ecosystem services tools, including ARIES and InVEST, are rapidly improving. 13
14 KEY VARIABLE: TIME REQUIREMENTS VS. ADDED INFORMATION Method/ Tool Synthesis of past primary valuation Value transfer Ecosystem Services Review Est. hours, pilot study Est. hours with highquality data Relative amt. of information provided Moderate Low Low InVEST (3 ecosystem services High ARIES (4 ecosystem services) Highest Comments Time needed for review and synthesis of the literature; could be greater in areas where more studies have been completed (for example, Pacific Northwest). Estimate for the Wildlife Habitat Benefits Estimation Toolkit. Time requirements would be substantially greater to build new transfer functions, particularly if using a Bayesian approach. Can be completed quite quickly but does not provide quantitative results; time to completion could be several times greater if a large number of stakeholders are involved. Time to complete could be drastically reduced with system for sharing data and underlying model assumptions. Included time to customize and extensively debug models, which will not be necessary for future applications. Spatial data management system reduces data input needs in future applications. No tool performs perfectly against all 7 evaluative criteria; suggests a time and place for different tools. 14
15 BLM-WIDE OUTCOMES Feasible for immediate agency-wide use Ecosystem Services Review, Wildlife Habitat Benefits Estimation Toolkit Feasible for agency-wide use given development of supporting databases Primary Valuation, Point Transfer, Function Transfer, InVEST Feasible for agency-wide use given pending development of global models or expanded underlying datasets Proprietary tools, feasible for use in high-profile cases where contracting with consultants is possible ARIES, EcoServ, SolVES EcoAIM, EcoMetrix, ESValue, NAIS Place-specific tools that require extensive developer support Ecosystem Portfolio Model, Envision, MEASURES, MIMES 15
16 BLM-USGS PILOT PROJECT PHASE 2 Emphasis on assessing the usefulness of ecosystem service valuation for BLM s resource management decisions. Project focus: the Moab (Utah) Master Leasing Plan EIS. Contending uses include oil and gas development, potash mining, recreation, and scenic values. Ecosystem services in study: ground water and scenic values. Project is characterized by very high scenic and recreational values, and a sensitive policy context. 16
17 The partnership is developing a work program with federal agencies to collaboratively develop guidance to make the use of ecosystem services more routine and tractable for resource managers. The objective is to develop a framework with methods and metrics that are transparent, consistent and comparable at a national level, can also be applied at local and regional scales with relevant region-specific information. 17
18 BLM S RAPID ECOREGIONAL ASSESSMENTS REAs look across an ecoregion to more fully understand: ecological conditions and trends; natural and human influences; and opportunities for resource conservation, restoration, and development. REAs assess at a landscape scale: the current REAs range from 11 to 91 million acres. REAs describe and map conservation elements, areas of high ecological value. REAs gauge the potential of these habitats to be affected by environmental change agents. REAs also help identify areas that do not provide essential habitat and are not ecologically intact or readily restorable. 18
19 19
20 MOJAVE BASIN & RANGE REA 50,000 SQUARE MILES; 14 BLM FIELD OFFICES 20
21 MOHAVE BASIN & RANGE REA: MANAGEMENT QUESTIONS Native Plant Communities (4) Terrestrial Sites of High Biodiversity (3) Aquatic Sites of High Biodiversity (3) Specially Designated Areas of Ecological Value (1) Grazing, Wild Horses and Burros (7) Soils (3) Surface and Subsurface Water Availability (6) Aquatic Ecological Function and Structure (2) Fire History (2) Fire Potential (2) 21
22 MANAGEMENT QUESTIONS (2) Invasive Species (5) Urban and Roads Development (5) Oil, Gas, and Mining Development (6) Renewable Energy Development (4) Groundwater Extraction and Transportation (5) Surface Water Consumption and Diversion (5) Climate Change: Terrestrial Resource Issues (6) Climate Change: Aquatic Resource Issues (5) Military Constrained Areas (3) Atmospheric Deposition (1) 22
23 FRAMEWORK FOR MANAGING OFFSITE MITIGATION BLM s policy on offsite mitigation (Instruction Memorandum ) Solar Programmatic Environmental impact Statement (six southwestern states) Solar Regional Mitigation Planning Intended to mitigate unavoidable adverse impacts associated with developing and operating utility-scale solar power generation facilities on public lands 23
24 BLM S SOLAR ENERGY REGIONAL MITIGATION PLANNING Solar Regional Mitigation Planning Dry Lake Solar Energy Zone Pilot Project Workshop 2 - October 24-25, 2012 Summary of Participant Feedback [...] In addition to ensuring that the SRMP process continues to provide incentives for development in SEZs (and, conversely, doesn t create any disincentives), BLM should establish metrics for measuring this outcome. 24
25 CONTACT INFORMATION Rob Winthrop, Senior Social Scientist, Division of Decision Support, Planning, and NEPA, USDI Bureau of Land Management, Washington, DC. Phone: ; [Ecosys svcs in energy devel - ACES Winthrop ]
26 THANK YOU! QUESTIONS? 26
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