AgMIP multi-model comparisons
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1 ABARES Agrifood CC and International Trade: ^ AgMIP multi-model comparisons Dr. Helal Ahammad Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences FAO EXPERT CONSULTATION ON Global Food Production under Changing Climate and Increased Variability: Implications for Trade and Food Policy 5 November 2013, FAO, Rome
2 Key insights from AgMIP on climate change and international agrifood trade Economic growth and population growth are the key drivers of agrifood trade Enhanced role for trade under climate change Qualified insights (not predictions)
3 Presentation outline Climate change and international agrifood trade AgMIP: Global economic modeling Models: Key features Scenarios and assumptions Modelled results: Key insights
4 Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) Forecasting Statistics Analysis The Carbon Farming Initiative A proposed common practice framework for assessing additionality Felicity Woodhams, Darren Southwell, Sarah Bruce, Belinda Barnes, Helen Appleton, Jasmine Rickards, James Walcott, Beau Hug, Linden Whittle and Helal Ahammad Research by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences Technical report 12.2 August 2012 Modeling: Global Trade and Environment Model (GTEM)
5 Brings together Climate Modellers Crop modellers Regional and global economic modellers Funded by : An overview CGIAR Program on CC, Ag and Food Security USDA UK Department of International Development
6 The soft-linked AgMIP impact modeling Climate Biophysical Economic General circulation models (GCMs) ΔTemp. ΔPrec. Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) ΔYield Global economic models ΔArea ΔYield ΔCons. ΔTrade Source: Nelson et al. (forthcoming)
7 AgMIP economic models & international trade modeling Partial equilibrium models: Net trade GCAM (PNNL) GLOBIOM (IIASA) IMPACT (IFPRI) MAgPIE (PIK) General equilibrium models: Two-way trade AIM (NIES) ENVISAGE (FAO/WB) FARM (USDA) GTEM (ABARES) MAGNET LEI-WUR)
8 AgMIP scenarios based on Two climate models Two socioeconomic pathways IPSL -CM5A -LR HadGEM2 -ES SSP2 SSP3 Five crop models LPJmL pdssat DSSAT EPIC PEGASUS
9 Scenarios modeling What was not modelled (not explicitly) Broader CC impacts Climate change policy response Planned adaptation including trade reform What was modelled Changes in natural resource endowments Autonomous and price responsive adaptation Qualified insights (not predictions)
10 Exports by commodity & by region Average over five years to 2009 Source: FAOSTAT (2013)
11 Imports by commodity & by region Average over five years to 2009 Source: FAOSTAT (2013)
12 Exports by commodity & by region At 2050, reference scenario (SSP2) with no climate change impacts assumed (million tonnes) Source: AgMIP economic modelling exercise
13 Index of export and production growth At 2050, reference scenario (SSP2) with no climate change impacts assumed (normalised to unity) Source: AgMIP economic modelling exercise
14 Net-importers and net-exporters At 2050, reference scenario (SSP2), with no climate change impacts assumed Source: AgMIP economic modelling exercise
15 Net-trade in coarse grains at 2050, USA Source: AgMIP economic modelling exercise
16 Net-trade in coarse grains at 2050, China Source: AgMIP economic modelling exercise
17 Net-trade in coarse grains at 2050, sub-saharan Africa Source: AgMIP economic modelling exercise
18 Changes in global production & exports At 2050, SSP3 relative to SS2, with no climate change impacts assumed, (million tonnes) Source: AgMIP economic modelling exercise
19 Changes in global production & exports At 2050, climate change scenarios relative to the reference scenario (SSP2) (million tonnes) Source: AgMIP economic modelling exercise
20 Lessons from the AgMIP exercise Climate change and international agrifood trade Drivers of trade Economic and population growth: significant Climate change: modest (globally) Model agreement Enhanced role of trade: robust Qualified insights (not predictions) Unfinished business Regional impacts analysis Modelling global actions on climate change
21 ABARES
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Originally published as:
Originally published as: Nelson, G. C., Valin, H., Sands, R. D., Havlik, P., Ahammad, H., Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Heyhoe, E., Kyle, P., Lampe, M. von, Lotze-Campen, H., Mason
Originally published as:
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