The Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs): Progress and use
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1 The Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs): Progress and use Brian O Neill National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) With contributions from: many SSP co-developers Thanks to: Bas van Ruijven, Emily Laidlaw for ICONICS SSP literature database IPCC Expert Meeting on Mitigation, Sustainability and Climate Stabilization Scenarios, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, April 26-28, 217
2 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) Socio-economic challenges for mitigation SSP 5: (Mit. Challenges Dominate) Fossil-fueled Development SSP 1: (Low Challenges) Sustainability SSP 2: (Intermediate Challenges) Middle of the Road SSP 3: (High Challenges) Regional Rivalry SSP 4: (Adapt. Challenges Dominate) Inequality SSP 2 Narrative Qualitative description of broad patterns of development Logic relating elements of narrative to each other Quantitative elements National: Population Education Urbanization GDP Socio-economic challenges for adaptation SSP narratives, quantitative elements: 217 special issue of Global Environmental Change. SSP Database, hosted by IIASA.
3 SSP Narratives SSP 3 SSP3: Regional Rivalry Multi-pole Cold War Conflict, focus on security Barriers to trade, migration Little investment in health, education Slow technological progress Weak institutions Slow income growth SSP5: Fossil-fueled development Rise of the global middle class Rapid technological progress Large investments in human well being (health, education) Well functioning institutions Rapid economic growth Fossil-centered energy system O Neill et al., 215.
4 SSP Population: Asia, Africa Population (Millions) SSP3 SSP5 China India Population (Millions) Nigeria Ethiopia Based on KC and Lutz, 215.
5 SSP Urbanization: Asia, Africa Urban Population (%) China SSP3 SSP5 India Urban Population (%) Nigeria Ethiopia Based on Jiang and O Neill, 215.
6 SSP per capita GDP: Asia, Africa GDP per cap (k$/pers) China SSP3 SSP5 India GDP per cap (k$/pers) Nigeria Ethiopia Based on Dellink et al., 215.
7 SSP Extensions: Regional AACA: Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic Absar & Preston: Southeast US CCAFS: C. America IMPRESSIONS: Europe + subnational case studies AgMIP: Sub- Saharan Africa CCAFS: E/W Africa AgMIP: South Asia CCAFS: S/SE Asia
8 SSP Extensions: Spatial population Global (Jones & O Neill, 216) Coastal (Merkens et al., 216) Africa (Boke-Olen et al.,217) Europe (Terama et al., subm.) Jones and O Neill, 216.
9 SSP Extensions: Subnational income distribution Initial distribution, 2 Population change SSP5, 23 Vietnam Population + structural change, 23 23, 92 countries (Hallegatte & Rozenberg, 217) Global (van der Mensbrugghe, 216) IIASA Hallegatte & Rozenberg, 217.
10 Applications: Baseline emissions scenarios SSPs SSP X IAMs AIM GCAM IMAGE MESSAGE- GLOBIOM ReMIND- MAGPIE WITCH Radiative Forcing (W/m2) Energy, Land use, Emissions 1 Radiative Forcing SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5 RCP SSP-based IAM scenarios: 217 special issue of Global Environmental Change. SSP Database, hosted by IIASA. Riahi et al., 216.
11 Applications: Mitigation scenarios SSPs SSP X IAMs AIM GCAM IMAGE MESSAGE- GLOBIOM ReMIND- MAGPIE WITCH Radiative Forcing (W/m2) 1 Radiative Forcing Energy, Land use, Emissions Baseline 6. W/m W/m W/m W/m SSP-based IAM scenarios: 217 special issue of Global Environmental Change. SSP Database, hosted by IIASA. Riahi et al., 216.
12 Applications: Climate projections (CMIP6) Radiative W/m2 Forcing (W/m2) ogenic Radiative Forcing Selected SSPbased marker scenarios RCP 4.5 SSP5-8.5 (Baseline) SSP3-7. (Baseline) SSP4-6. SSP2-4.5 SSP5-3.4-OS SSP4-3.4 SSP1-2.6 SSP1-1.9 ESMs ScenarioMIP Climate Projections
13 Integrated climate-society analyses SSP1 Sustainability Shared Socio-economic Pathways SSP2 Middle of the Road SSP3 Regional Rivalry SSP4 Inequality SSP5 Fossil-fueled Development Climate 21 forcing level (W/m 2 ) Scenarios conceptual framework: 215 special issue of Climatic Change. van Vuuren et al., 214.
14 Applications: Large coordinated projects SSP-related Information Project Narratives Quant. Elements AgMIP ISIMIP IPBES Agricultural Model Inter-comparison & Improvement Project Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services X X IAM scenarios X X X X X X TWI25 The World in 25 X X X CD-LINKS Linking Climate and Development Policies X X IMPRESSIONS EU project: Impacts and Risks from High- End Scenarios Shock Waves World Bank Report: Climate & Poverty X X BRACE X X X NCAR project: Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate change X X
15 Courtesy: K. O Neill Applications: ICONICS database (155 papers)
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17 ScenarioMIP Design Summary SSP1 Sustainability Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP2 Middle of the Road SSP3 Regional Rivalry SSP4 Inequality SSP5 Fossil-fueled Development Previous scenarios 8.5 +LTE Climate 21 forcing level (W/m 2 ) LTE +Ens OS +LTE Tier 1 Tier 2 Ens: Initial condition ensemble LTE: Long-term extension OS: Overshoot CMIP5 RCPs
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