NASA s Next Generation Earth-Observing Satellites; Opportunities for Global Change Research and Applications

Transcription

1 NASA s Next Generation Earth-Observing Satellites; Opportunities for Global Change Research and Applications By John Dwyer, USGS, EROS for NASA s Applied Sciences Program L. DeWayne Cecil Chief Scientist 1

2 NASA is Seeking Proposals That Focus on the Nine Next Generation Missions Augmented by Current Missions Where Needed and Appropriate Note: CIRMOUNT will receive notice for the 2007 solicitation 2

3 The Nine Next Generation Missions CloudSat (Launched April 28, 2006) - Cloud Property Profiles CALIPSO (Launched April 28, 2006) - Cloud Aerosol Properties Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) - Space-based measurements of atmospheric CO 2 Launch September 2008 Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM) - Sea surface height Launch June 2008 NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) - Climate change signals, global biological productivity Launch April 2009 Aquarius - Global sea surface salinity Launch July 2009 Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) - Global precipitation Constellation Launch 2014 Glory - Earth s energy balance and climate change Launch December 2008 Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) Land Surface Imaging Launch

4 Goals of the Science Framework Session Rapid Prototyping Workshop Overview Of An Example RPC Experiment Present Several Tools That Can Be Components In Rapid Prototyping Configurations Research Results and Science Products From: NASA s Modeling and Analysis Program» Earth System Modeling Framework NASA s Water and Energy Cycle Program Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) Project Columbia and Applied Sciences Visualization of Model Outcomes for Decision Support Maintain Scientific Rigor Throughout The Process Characterization and Reporting of Uncertainty Transparent and Inclusive Science and Engineering Communities Peer Review Scientific and Engineering Accountability; Agreed upon set of Metrics 4

5 System Diagram for NASA s Applied Sciences Activities Research and Analysis Program supply Applied Sciences Program Crosscutting Solutions National Applications demand Operations NASA Earth Science Research Solutions Network Rapid Prototyping Capacity R&O Integrated System Solution Societal Benefits Water and Energy Climate Evaluation Weather Carbon Solid Earth Atmospheric Composition Solar Verification and Validation Benchmarking Uncertainty Analysis, Scientific Rigor, Community Peer Review 5

6 Bringing Global Climate Change Model Projections to the Watershed Scale: Pitfalls, Opportunities, and Uncertainties for Decision Support Potential Partners EARTH SYSTEM MODELS AND DATASETS Watershed scale, 2-D, snow, ice, and water mass balance model (Plummer and Phillips, 2005) with input from NASA global scale projections Rigorous large ensemble probability distribution analyses OSSE datasets for next generation satellites Rigorous statistical design built into OSSEs upfront (NIST as a partner) Climate Models in ESMF: GISS Model E and other GMAO Analyses Data EARTH OBSERVATIONS Atmosphere: Aura, TRMM, OCO, CALIPSO, CloudSat, GPM, Aquarius Land : ICESat, MODIS Field Mission: Watershedscale airborne campaigns, Ground-based monitoring network *Next Generation Missions Predictions Uncertainty analyses, uncertainty analyses, Uncertainty analyses! Global/Regional/Watershed scale model products Regional differences in aerosols and trace gas concentrations and impacts on climatology month seasonal forecasts, 5 20 year projections, & Century timescale projections Natural & anthropogenic aerosols, black carbon Trace gas profiles Climate-Change Parameters Tropical/Global/Regional Precipitation Total Aerosols Observations RAPID PROTOTYPING V&V DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS Use OSSE simulated next generation and current mission datasets for climate change scenario assessments WITH associated uncertainties carried throughout projections Use OSSE simulated data from next generation missions with existing measurements of climate change parameters from space to estimate the watershed-scale mass balance and climate change impacts Interagency Alignment: CCSP, CCTP, US GEO VALUE & BENEFITS Impacts of global climate change on the Watershed scale Water resource management on local scale Climate-change impacts on wastemanagement facility sighting Decision support with uncertainty quantified and communicated (NSF as a partner) Uncertainty Analysis, Scientific Rigor, Community Peer Review 6

7 Bringing Global Climate Change Model Projections to the Watershed Scale: Pitfalls, Opportunities, and Uncertainties for Decision Support Watershed-Scale Applied Science Questions? (1) How can global predictions of the effects of future rapid climate change and variability be enhanced and used? (2) How are uncertainties in global projections compounded, or not, at the watershed scale? (3) What are the implications for decisionsupport? Øksfjordjøkelen, Norway Upper Fremont Glacier, Wyoming, USA 7 Beluka Glacier, Siberia, Russia

8 Tools to Address the Science Questions Datasets Generated From Future-Mission OSSEs OCO, CALIPSO, CloudSat, GPM, Aquarius Datasets From Current Missions Aura, TRMM, ICESat, MODIS Global Climate Change Model Projections Using All Data GISS E, other GMAO Analyses Global Model Output Used As Watershed-Scale Model Input ESMF Compliant NASA Model Codes Partner s ESMF Compliant Model Codes Uncertainty Analyses of Inputs and Outputs Decision Support Inputs/Outputs MAP 2006 OSSE Datasets Inputs/Outputs MAP 2005 Tools for Uncertainty Analysis GEOS-5 Watershed Scale MB MODEL JCSDA fvgcm (GEOS4) Project Columbia 8

9 Example Statistical Tools with Potential to Enhance OSSE Analysis/Interpretation and For Analyzing Uncertainty of Model Projections Statistical Analyses Built Into Experiments Up Front Allow efficient, unambiguous comparisons of different methods for using data, including interactions between factors Uncertainty analysis Propagates uncertainty in model inputs and outputs Necessary for realistic interpretation of all types of measurement results Computer intensive methods such as the Bootstrap and Bayesian analyses using Markov Chain Monte Carlo have the potential to handle complicated, intricate model projections and datasets Augment rigorous large ensemble probability distribution determinations 9

10 NASA s Applied Sciences Program Will Ask for Enhanced Visualization of Experimental Results for Decision Support WHERE DID WE GO WRONG? 10

11 Metrics for Determining Successes and Shortcomings of an Evolving Process Example Integrated System Solutions Metrics **Do Not Rely On One Metric Alone** Reduction and Communication of Uncertainty In Datasets In Climate-Change Projections (Forcings) In Decision Making Transparent and Inclusive Community of Practice Peer Review Improved or Enhanced Decision Support Expert analysts surveys are a significant first step, we must continue with more rigorous metrics, i.e., how did we enhance decision support, which combinatory factors/science products maximized enhancement? 11

12 Metrics Should Apply To All Rapid Prototyping Experiments Potential Experiments With Application in Alpine Environments EARTH SYSTEM MODELS AND DATASETS OSSE datasets for next generation satellites Climate Models: GISS Model E Earth System & Climate Change: GMAO Analysis Seasonal Prediction Models: NSIPP Analysis Aerosol Transport Models: RAQMS, GMAO fvcam Atmospheric Analysis Projects: ISCCP, GPCP LANL CICE: Sea Ice Model Data EARTH OBSERVATIONS Atmosphere: Aura, TRMM, OCO, CALIPSO, CloudSat, GPM Utilize the thermal IR of TES on Aura and the near IR of OCO for surface methane and carbon dioxide Land and Cryosphere : ICESat, Terrestrial Networks In the Arctic *Next Generation Missions Arctic Methane and Carbon Inventories for Climate Change Assessments and/or Weather Forecasts Predictions Global/Regional scale model products Regional differences in trace gas concentrations and impacts on climatology Early warning forecasts for rapid dramatic environmental changes month seasonal forecasts year forecasts Trace gas profiles CO 2 CH 4 (major GHG in arctic due to levels in melting permafrost) Cloud systems Tropical/Global Precipitation Total Aerosols Observations RAPID PROTOTYPING V&V DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS Use OSSE simulated next generation mission datasets for scenario assessment of rapid climate change in the Arctic and associated positive feedbacks due to loss of permafrost and snow cover Simulate the measurement of increases of CO 2, CH 4, and water vapor as a result of permafrost loss and associated positive feedback to climate system Interagency Alignment: CCSP, US GEO Potential Partners VALUE & BENEFITS Early warning of potentially dramatic increase in the loss of snow cover and permafrost in the arctic Protection of endangered species, coastal areas, and anthropogenic infrastructure in the Arctic Draft For Discussion Purposes DeWayne Cecil 4/14/06 Uncertainty Analysis, Scientific Rigor, Community Peer Review Carbon and Water Management OCO, GPM, CloudSat, CALIPSO, Aquarius EARTH SYSTEM MODELS AND DATASETS OSSE datasets for next generation satellites Atmospheric Analysis Projects: ISCCP, GPCP NGA gravity and targeting models coupled with GMAO ESMF compliant models Cloud assimilation Gravity anomaly assimilation, GMAO Data EARTH OBSERVATIONS Atmosphere: CALIPSO, CloudSat Land and Cryosphere : GRACE, Terra and Aqua (MODIS), ICESat Terrestrial gravity-calibration networks Use of Satellite Data, Model Projections, and Ground-Based Data for Improved Homeland Security *Next Generation Missions Predictions Global/Regional scale model products Regional differences in gravity anomalies Characterization of uncertainties in scenario assessments Cloud systems Gravity maps Drought Assessment And Air Quality OCO CloudSat CloudSat Observations RAPID PROTOTYPING V&V DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS Use OSSE simulated next generation mission datasets for scenario assessment of gravity maps and cloud cover Simulate the effects of gravity anomalies and cloud cover on targeting Interagency Alignment: US GEO Potential Partners U.S. Department of Defense National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency U.S. Department of Homeland Security VALUE & BENEFITS Improved response to threats to National Security Improved a- priori National Security threat scenario assessment Draft For Discussion Purposes DeWayne Cecil 4/14/06 Uncertainty Analysis, Scientific Rigor, Community Peer Review EARTH SYSTEM MODELS AND DATASETS OSSE datasets for next generation satellites Clouds and Precipitation Assimilation Aerosol Transport Models: RAQMS, GMAO fvcam Climate Models: GISS Model E Earth System & Climate Change: GMAO Analysis Data EARTH OBSERVATIONS Atmosphere: Aura, TRMM, OCO, CALIPSO, CloudSat, GPM Land : Terrestrial Networks Field Mission: INTEX-B / MILAGRO *Next Generation Missions Characterization of Precipitation and Air Pollution: Drought Reduction and Air Quality Predictions Correlations between air pollution and amount of precipitation Global/Regional scale model products Regional differences in aerosols and trace gas concentrations and impacts on air quality month seasonal forecasts year forecasts Natural & anthropogenic aerosols, black carbon Trace gas profiles Cloud systems Tropical/Global/Regional Precipitation Total Aerosol Amount Observations RAPID PROTOTYPING V&V DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS Use OSSE simulated next generation and current mission datasets for scenario assessment of the apparent correlation between level of air pollution and amount of precipitation (Borys and Lowenthal, 2003; Rosenfeld, 2006) Use spaceborne, surface, and airborne measurements and model data products for verification & validation of drought prediction and air quality modeling tools Interagency Alignment: CCSP, US GEO Homeland Security CloudSat CALIPSO GRACE 12 Potential Partners VALUE & BENEFITS Potential tool to aid in the prediction of fluctuations in drought conditions Air quality monitoring support tool Draft For Discussion Purposes DeWayne Cecil 4/14/06 Uncertainty Analysis, Scientific Rigor, Community Peer Review

13 Contact Information L. DeWayne Cecil, Ph.D. Chief Scientist NASA Applied Sciences Program NASA Headquarters 300 E St. SW Washington, DC lcecil@hq.nasa.gov 13