Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) ~ Research & Support for Climate Services? ~ WMO-GFCS

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1 Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) ~ Research & Support for Climate Services? ~ William J. Gutowski, Jr. Iowa State University and Co-Chair, With thanks CORDEX to many others, Science including Advisory... Team (SAT) WMO-GFCS

2 CORDEX Regions Goals: Cover all major land masses + Arctic Build on prior experiences These give opportunities and challenges. WMO-GFCS

3 CORDEX Scientific Vision To advance and coordinate the science and application of regional climate downscaling through global partnerships Goals: To better understand relevant regional/local climate phenomena, their variability and changes, through downscaling. To evaluate and improve regional climate downscaling models and techniques To produce coordinated sets of regional downscaled projections worldwide To foster communication and knowledge exchange with users of regional climate information WMO-GFCS

4 CORDEX Scientific Challenges Added value Internal variability & added value as functions of scale; Bias correction uncertainties and consistency; User-oriented metrics Human element Coupling of regional climate and coastal megacities; Bridging with urban parameterisation development; Land use change Coordination of regional coupled modelling Ocean-ice-atmosphere; Lakes; Dynamic land surface; Cryosphere; Natural fires; Atmospheric chemistry; Carbon cycle; Aerosols; Marine biogeochemistry Precipitation Convective systems; Coastal storm systems; MJO/Monsoon Local wind systems Wind storms; Strong regional winds; Wind energy WMO-GFCS

5 CORDEX Linkages A CMIP6 Diagnostic MIP How can we assess future climate changes given climate variability, predictability and uncertainties in scenarios? IPCC Interest CORDEX Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORE) Succinct set of downscalings for IPCC assessments WMO-GFCS

6 Opportunities/Challenges for GFCS CORDEX??? Understand regional phenomena Improve regional climate downscaling Produce regional downscaled projections Foster knowledge exchange with users User community dialogue? Climate services? Seasonal prediction? Regional observations? Climate science communication? WMO-GFCS

7 CORDEX-ESGF CORDEX-ESGF is in operation since mid September 2013 Number of users is growing (more and more data available) 2843 users in the CORDEX-ESGF group (11 Jan 2017) downtime

8 CORDEX data on ESGF Number of files Africa 50km Europe 50km Europe 12km Arctic 50km South Asia 50km North America 50km South America 50km Central America 50km MENA 50km Antarctic 50km East Asia 50km MENA 25km Australasia 50km Central Asia 50km North America 25km North America 12km Most important: number of scenarios and RCM-GCM combinations per domain provided by DKRZ

9 CORDEX Challenges Funding Uneven development across regions Simulation matrix gaps Developing country data access WMO links Opportunity? Interactions with World Bank

10 Thank You! Recent Publications Giorgi, F., and W. J. Gutowski, 2015: Regional Dynamical Downscaling and the CORDEX Initiative. Ann. Rev. of Environment and Resources [DOI: /annurev-environ ] Gutowski, W. J., and Coauthors, 2016: WCRP Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX): A Diagnostic MIP for CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development [DOI: /gmd ] - Part of a special collection of papers on CMIP6 Giorgi, F., and W. J. Gutowski, 2016: Coordinated Experiments for Projections of Regional Climate Change. Current Climate Change Reports [DOI: /s ]. ) WMO-GFCS

11 Reserve Slides

12 Workshop: Scoping a Framework for WCRP Regional Activities Hamburg, Germany October 2016 Needs: Clarify relationship of WCRP & CORDEX to climate services Clarify scope of WCRP science vis-à-via climate information Enhance connections among WCRP activities for regions Leg 1 Foundational Climate Science (Curiosity-driven research/ Fundamental knowledge) Leg 3 Trans-disciplinary Engagement Leg 2 Application-inspired Climate Science

13 WCRP, CORDEX & Regional Activities: Recommendations Leg 1 CORDEX will be an integral part of developing WCRP s portfolio on regional studies. Other contributors to regional climate science? Coordination? Leg 2 WCRP will seek to advance climate-system understanding relevant to regional socio-ecological challenges (through a Working Group on Information for Regions). Who should provide input to guide a WGIR? Leg 3 WCRP, via multi-disciplinary communities, will dialogue with high level boundary organizations on climate information needs. How should WCRP engage with multi-disciplinary communities? Who are they? How are social sciences engaged (uptake of new information, ethical issues,...)? WMO-GFCS

14 CORDEX IPCC Interest CORDEX Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX CORE) Motivated by IPCC Workshop on Regional Climate (Sept. 2015) WCRP Scoping Workshop on a framework for reg. studies (Oct. 2016) Current elements Succinct set of downscalings for each region Provide a core foundation for additional work by others Span plausible range of climate change => 3 distinct GCMs CMIP5 (CMIP6 supplement): RCP8.5, RCP2.6 Downscaling: 3-4 RCMs? ESD methods? Resolution: km, uniform within a region

15 Issue: Web Portals Data Sources WMO-GFCS (Hewitson et al., 2017, in press) What is data credible, defensible and actionable? Who would you trust with your money?

16 Workshop: Scoping a Framework for WCRP Regional Activities Hamburg, Germany October 2016 Emergence of regional issues in international climate science Needs: Clarify relationship of WCRP & CORDEX to climate services Clarify scope of WCRP science vis-à-via climate information Enhance connections among WCRP activities for regions (

17 WCRP, CORDEX & Regional Activities Leg 2 Application-inspired Climate Science - Use-inspired fundamental research - Research to understand critical phenomena - Goal: Understanding of processes governing climate relevant to users of climate information Leg 3 Trans-disciplinary Engagement - Requires dialogue with boundary organizations - Can view as translational science - Goal: Provide climate information, not numbers, as an outcome of the engagement WMO-GFCS

18 Caution: Process Fidelity? Heat Stress (HS) in Greater St. Louis region 2 NARCCAP models (Steinweg & Gutowski, 2015) WCRP WGRC Distillation Workshop October 2014

19 Caution: Process Fidelity? Heat Stress (HS) in Greater St. Louis region 2 NARCCAP models (Steinweg & Gutowski, 2015)

20 Caution: Process Fidelity? Heat Stress (HS) in Greater St. Louis region 2 NARCCAP models (Steinweg & Gutowski, 2015)

21 Caution: Pay attention to unforced variability

22 (NARCCAP; McGinnis & Barsugli, 2013)