BUILDING BRIDGES TO A LOW CARBON FUTURE

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1 BUILDING BRIDGES TO A LOW CARBON FUTURE UNIVERSITY O F TEXAS ENERGY WEEK DOYLE N. BENEBY PRESIDENT & CEO, CPS ENERGY FEBRUARY 17,2015 1

2 CPS ENERGY OVERVIEW Largest municipally owned, vertically integrated electric & gas company in the nation- 756K Electric & 334K gas customers Lowest rates among the top 10 largest U.S. cities Designated by Bank of America Merrill Lynch as the Premier Credit Rating in industry Innovative public private partnerships have yielded 548 jobs & $622M in economic impact to-date in local San Antonio community $11B in asset base, $2.5B in annual revenue 14% of customers are on a Demand Response program which is equivalent a total of 135MWs San Antonio Ranks 6th in Nation for Solar Energy * Vision 2020 transition s CPS Energy from a company that is highly dependent on power from traditional generation sources to a company that provides competitively priced power based on a diverse generation portfolio. 2

3 THE CASE FOR LOW CARBON APPROACH Hyperactive Regulatory Environment EPA Clean Power Plan (111D) MATS 316A&B Methane Market Dynamics Declining Solar Prices / Grid Parity Increased Scalability of Storage Technologies Declining Natural Gas Prices Demand Response / Lower Demand Consumer Behavior Flexibility Control Demographics 3

4 HYPERACTIVE REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT Ozone Beginning CAIR Phase I Seasonal NOx Cap CAIR Vacated CAIR Remanded Reconsidered Ozone NAAQS NO2 Primary NAAQS SO2/NO2 Revised Ozone NAAQS SO2 Primary cancelled NAAQS Proposed CAIR Replacement Rule Effluent Guidelines proposed rule Final CSAPR Rule CAIR/CSAPR CSAPR put on hold, CAIR still effective SO2/NO2 Secondary NAAQS CSAPR remanded CAIR still effective Effluent Guidelines Final rule expected Ozone NAAQS Revision 316(b) final rule issued 316(b) Compliance- Depends on Permitting Authority discretion Water Effluent Guidelines Compliance 3-5 yrs after final rule Earliest possible compliance date for effluent guidelines Expected Ozone Designations '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 CAMR & Delisting Rule vacated PM-2.5 SIPs due ( 97) Begin CAIR Phase I Annual NOx Cap Begin CAIR Phase I Annual SO2 Cap Proposed Rule for CCBs Management PM2.5 Next PM- 2.5 NAAQS Revision MATS proposed rule 316(b) proposed rule MATS final rule Feb 2012 NSPS GHGs for new units proposed Ash New PM-2.5 NAAQS Designations Begin Compliance Requirements under Final CCB Rule NSPS GHGs for existing units proposed Hg/HAPS CSAPR started Jan. 1, 2015 MATS Compliance 3 yrs after final rule (April 2015) NSPS GHGs for existing units finalized CO2/GHGs Final Rule for CCBs Mgmt Get ahead of the issues, rather than be defined by them. 4

5 MARKET DYNAMICS: DECLINING SOLAR COST/GRID PARITY *Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 5

6 MARKET DYNAMICS: NATURAL GAS FORECASTS 6

7 MARKET DYNAMICS: DECLINING CONSUMPTION U.S. Electricity Demand Growth (Annual and Moving Average in %) 15% % 5% 0% Historical Projected Latest EIA projection* Average: 0.9%/year -5% Three-Year Moving Average Trendline Primary product of electric utilities continues to decline year over year Sources: *EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013; EIA, Monthly Energy Review (Dec. 2013); ScottMadden analysis 7

8 CONSUMER BEHAVIOR: MASS CUSTOMIZATION / PREFERENCES Information Value Market Segmentation Pricing Cost Customer Behavior Market Segmentation Market Segmentation Technology Enabler Developing deeper insight into customer behavior, and anticipating changes, is critical to future market share 8

9 THE CPS ENERGY STORY Diversity of Generation Natural gas bridge fuel Incremental integration of renewables Grid of the Future Interoperability via Open Architecture Data Analytics Public Private Partnerships Technology/Innovation Economic Development Education Human Capital Investment Training & development De-bureaucratizing 9

10 CPS ENERGY 2020 GENERATION DIVERSIFICATION GOALS 20% renewable energy capacity in power generation mix 65% of generation low-carbon 771MW energy efficiency STEP goal* Wind 8.13% STEP 1.56% Solar 0.03% Landfill Gas 0.25% Purch Pwr 5.47% Natural Gas 6.93% Gas 6.93% STEP 7.65% Wind 12.10% Solar 2.11% Landfill Gas 0.24% Purch Pwr 0.48% Natural Gas Gas 19.57% 19.57% Nuclear Nuclear 31.78% 31.78% Coal Coal 45.86% 45.86% Nuclear 23.46% Nuclear 23.46% Coal 34.39% Coal 34.39% 2010 Generation Projected Generation 2020 Traditional 84.57% Renewables 8.41% Traditional 77.42% Renewables 14.45% *STEP (Save for Tomorrow Energy Program) 10

11 GRID OF THE FUTURE: INTEROPERABILITY VIA OPEN ARCHITECTURE Traditional Energy System Future Energy System The Grid Interoperability between providers and customers creates most value: prosumers 11

12 PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS: NON-TRADITIONAL STRATEGIC ALLIANCES 12

13 HUMAN CAPITAL INVESTMENT Don t just survive in a changing environment, THRIVE 13

14 CHALLENGES Cyber and Physical Security Concerns Natural Phenomena Increasing Global Coal Demand Disaster recovery Utility Adaptability 14

15 ALL FIXED SET PATTERNS ARE INCAPABLE OF ADAPTABILITY OR PLIABILITY. THE TRUTH IS OUTSIDE OF ALL FIXED PATTERS. BRUCE LEE 15