2005 Integrated Electricity Plan. Provincial IEP Committee Meeting #2 Planning Criteria February 22/23, 2005

Transcription

1 2005 Integrated Electricity Plan Provincial IEP Committee Meeting #2 Planning Criteria February 22/23, 2005

2 2005 IEP Objectives Means Objectives Ends (Fundamental) Objectives Agenda Items No net imports Supply > Demand No dependence on US No loss of control to US companies Continued public ownership of resources Diversity of supply (including coal) Security * Cost - Average Risk A) Planning Criteria B) Financial Analysis C) Employment & Economic Development Flexibility to import green power Increase the number of communities integrated into the system Distributed Generation Diverse Generation Open and fast review process Recognition for BC Hydro Minimize environmental Impacts And/or increase positive environmental impact Reliability for consumers D) Role of Public and Private Sectors E) Clean and Green Definitions F) Measuring Environmental Impacts Minimize risk of transmission failures Air, Land and Water G) Diversity/Distributed Generation Increase/decrease private sector involvement * H) Other topics Maintain/increase regional equity * New research and development in BC Increase employment 3/31/05 Page 2 NEW - Regional workshops

3 Objectives of this session Understand industry standards for reliability and BC Hydro s Planning Criteria Understand how reliability is currently treated in portfolios Confirm committee is satisfied these criteria will allow BC Hydro to meet the reliability objective 3/31/05 Page 3

4 Reliability - definition Adequacy The ability of the electric system to supply the aggregate electrical demand and energy requirements of their customers at all times, taking into account scheduled and reasonably expected unscheduled outages of system elements Security The ability of the electric system to withstand sudden disturbances such as electric short circuits or unanticipated loss of system elements. 3/31/05 Page 4

5 Why Planning Criteria and how are they used? Ensure BC Hydro has a reliable system Requirement to meet certain planning criteria to be connected to western North America grid Dictate when new resources or upgrades are needed for reliability 3/31/05 Page 5

6 Reliability : Customers and BCH perspectives Generation Transmission Distribution CHL zero 15% 85% Consequence -severe - severe -local - system wide - wide spread -outages problems blackouts - economic - economic - local impacts impacts impacts Customers Customer Hours Lost (CHL) Time to Restore frequency Duration 3/31/05 Page 6

7 Agenda for Presentation Review industry reliability standards Explain BC Hydro s current planning criteria for Generation, Transmission, and Distribution 3/31/05 Page 7

8 Regulatory and Reliability groups 3/31/05 Page 8

9 Regulatory Authority BC Utilities Commission (BCUC) BCUC has regulatory authority over BC Hydro, and approves BC Hydro s reliability standards. NERC (National Electricity Reliability Council) NERC is a voluntary organization that is responsibility for Transmission reliability standards in the US NERC is promoting the development of a new mandatory system of reliability standards and compliance, backstopped in the United States by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission 3/31/05 Page 9

10 Regional Reliability Councils Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) Establishes mandatory operation standards and guidelines that describe good planning practices Required by NERC to establish a resource adequacy processes 3/31/05 Page 10

11 Western Interstate Board and CREPP Western Interstate Board is an organization of 3 provinces (including BC) and 12 western states Committee on Regional Electric Power Cooperation (CREPC) Concentrating on resource assessment 3/31/05 Page 11

12 Conclusions for Regulatory All regulatory agencies and governments at all levels are interested in Reliability Due to the interconnection of the bulk electric system, joint planning and co-ordination is required. 3/31/05 Page 12

13 Reliability : Customers and BCH perspectives Generation Transmission Distribution CHL zero 15% 85% Consequence -severe - severe -local - system wide - wide spread -outages problems blackouts - economic - economic - local impacts impacts impacts Customers Customer Hours Lost (CHL) Time to Restore frequency Duration 3/31/05 Page 13

14 Generation Reliability Planning Capacity Criteria 3/31/05 Page 14

15 Constraints in Generation Systems Energy Constrained Capacity Constrained System Hydro Systems Thermal Systems Adequacy Annual Reserve Margin Metric Load/Resource Balance Constraint Fuel Limited Machine limited 3/31/05 Page 15

16 Constraints in BC Hydro s System BC Hydro historically was energy constrained, but now capacity requirements are often driving new resource acquisitions. Both energy and capacity reliability metrics are required and used by BC Hydro Peak Load (MW) 6,816 7,513 8,646 10,143 Capacity Reserve 33% 26% 25% 15% 3/31/05 Page 16

17 Capacity Reliability Planning Methods Deterministic Planning Reserve Margin Probabilistic Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) [probability] Hourly Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) [probability] Expected Unserved Energy (EUE) [kwh/year] Economic reliability planning (Shortage Value) 3/31/05 Page 17

18 Generation Capacity Adequacy Metrics Increasing computation complexity Adequacy Aspect Frequency Duration Magnitude Value Shortage LOLP LOLE EUE Value!!!!!!!!!! 3/31/05 Page 18

19 Target Planning Reserve Margins Reserve Margin 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% BC Hydro CPUC Avista Pacificorp Idaho Power Portland General Electirc Puget Sound Electirc Hydro Quebec 3/31/05 Page 19

20 BC Hydro s Capacity Planning Criterion 14% planning reserve calculated from LOLP analysis Criterion is 1-day-in-10-years Peak Load Forecast 1:2 Design Temperature Duration curve for daily values Resource Counting Dependable capacity Forced outage rates LOLP Analysis Output 14% reserve margin (includes 400 MW from intertie) Peak load carrying capability of system 3/31/05 Page 20

21 How is Capacity Planning Criteria used? Dictates when new capacity resources are required in order to maintain reliability L/R Balance Peak Load Forecast 1:2 Design Temperature 12,000 11,000 10,000 Output from LOLP 14% reserve margin 400 MW (intertie) 9,000 8,000 7,000 Existing Supply Heritage Contract IPPs and contracts 6,000 F2005 F2006 F2007 F2008 F2009 F2010 F2011 F2012 F2013 F2014 3/31/05 Page 21

22 Example 3/31/05 Page 22 Note: From Pacificore public information sessions

23 Generation Reliability Planning Energy Criteria 3/31/05 Page 23

24 Energy Planning Criteria in hydro systems Account for annual hydro variability Hydro Generation Firm energy capability of Heritage hydro assets based on critical low flow period : 43,000 GWh Critical Period /31/05 Page 24

25 Energy Planning Criteria for Heritage Assets Critical Water Firm Energy Heritage Hydro 43,000 GWh Firm Energy Burrard 6,000 GWh 49,000 GWh Average Water Year Heritage Hydro 47,000 GWh Average Burrard usage or imports 2,000 GWh 49,000 GWh 3/31/05 Page 25

26 BC Hydro Long term goal for Reliability of Energy Supply BC Hydro will plan to have sufficient generation capability in BC to be able to meet domestic demand in any given year. 3/31/05 Page 26

27 5,000 4,800 4,600 4, IEP results Self Sufficiency Gas & Electricity Price Forecast High NEB EIA Alt HR Confer NPV ($Millions) 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 EA1 Non-Firm Imports for Incremental Demand EA2 3,000 GWh per year Non-Firm Imports (CCGTs) EA3 Energy Self- Sufficiency (CCGTs) EA4 3,000 GWh per year Energy Surplus (CCGTs) 3/31/05 Page 27 EA5 3,000 GWh per year Non-Firm Imports (Fixed Cost Resources) EA6 Energy Self- Sufficiency (Fixed Cost Resources) EA7 3,000 GWh per year Energy Surplus (Fixed Cost Resources)

28 Transmission Reliability Planning 3/31/05 Page 28

29 WECC/NERC Planning Standards (Revised April 10, 2003) Includes mandatory standards and guidelines that describe good planning practices Requirements are primarily to avoid cascading outages and affecting the control area s neighbour. Minimum operating reliability general system instability, uncontrolled separation, cascading outages, or voltage collapse will not occur as a result of any single contingency or multiple contingency of sufficiently high likelyhood Single contingencies (N-1) should not lead to loss of demand or curtailed firm transfers (although interruptions to local network customers connected to the faulted element may occur) 3/31/05 Page 29

30 WECC Mandatory Operating Reserves Greater of - single contingency - sum of 5% (hydro) and 7% (thermal) of load WECC also sets requirements for spinning reserve BC Hydro is part of Northwest Power Pool, which has a reserve sharing agreement. 3/31/05 Page 30

31 Transmission Planning and IEP BC Hydro gives portfolios to BCTC, who indicate what reinforcements are required to meet N-1 contingency and other stability requirements. 3/31/05 Page 31

32 Distribution Planning 3/31/05 Page 32

33 Distribution Distribution Reliability is currently undertaken based on historical performance of the distribution system combined with performance targets for improvement or maintenance of current performance. The system performance is measured in terms of frequency and duration of outages including the resulting Customer Hours Lost (CHL) metric. Based on actual performance and economics, Distribution targets areas where frequent, long and high number of customers impacted outages have occurred. 3/31/05 Page 33

34 Distributed Generation and Reliability Distributed Generation may have some benefit in local area and affect CHL metric. This is not measured in our portfolio analysis. Distributed Generation could have some cost savings in Distribution Lines that is not accounted for in our portfolio analysis. May be able to apply general rules of thumb for cost savings. 3/31/05 Page 34

35 Reliability - Summary Objective of Reliability met by: 14% capacity planning reserve MW interie Firm energy to meet load under critical water N-1 contingency for transmission planning 3/31/05 Page 35

36 3/31/05 Page 36

37 WECC sub-regions Sub-regions actively developing their own resource adequacy standards California 90% of peak load + 15% reserve covered by forward commitments 1-year ahead 5% reliance on spot market Northwest Planning and Conservation Council (NWPCC) System as many similarities to BCH 3/31/05 Page 37

38 Criteria and method behind reserve margin Criteria Probablistic Method BC Hydro 1-in-10 LOLP CPUC deterministic Avista deterministic Pacificorp 1-in-10 & economic LOLP and EUE Portland General Electirc deterministic (based on FERCS SMD) Puget Sound Electirc deterministic & economic Hydro Quebec 2.4 hr per year BPA 3/31/05 Page 38

39 Example 3/31/05 Page 39 Note: From Pacificore public information sessions

40 BC Hydro Proposed Next Steps for Capacity Criteria 1) use existing models and information to develop LOLP vs planning margin graph Graph of increasing costs vs planning margin A graph similar to first graph will be presented to PIEPC in March 3/31/05 Page 40