2005 Integrated Electricity Plan Modelling Approach IEP Provincial IEP Committee Meeting #4 May 31/June 1, 2005

Transcription

1 2005 Integrated Electricity Plan Modelling Approach 2005 IEP Provincial IEP Committee Meeting #4 May 31/June 1, 2005

2 IEP Road Map Part 2 Key Input Assumptions Part 1 Planning Objectives and Principles Part 4 Supply/Demand Outlook Part 5 Part 6 Portfolio Development and Analysis Action Plan Resource Options Part 3 Stakeholder & First Nations Engagement May 31/June 1, 2005 Page 2

3 Demand Supply Outlook - Energy 85,000 75,000 65,000 Firm Energy (GWh) 55,000 45,000 35,000 25,000 15,000 5,000 F2006 F2007 F2008 F2009 F2010 F2011 F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019 F2020 F2021 F2022 F2023 F2024 F2025 Heritage Energy Resource Smart Existing Purchase Contracts Duke Point Power Revelstoke Unit 5 F2006 and F2007 Calls 2004 Forecast before Demand Side Management 2004 Forecast after Energy Efficiency 2004 Forecast after Energy Efficiency and Load Displacement May 31/June 1, 2005 Page 3

4 Demand Supply Outlook - Capacity 17,000 Peak Demand & Dependable Capacity Supply (MW) 15,000 13,000 11,000 9,000 7,000 5,000 F2006 F2007 F2008 Heritage Hydroelectric Heritage Thermal F2009 F2010 F2011 F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015 May 31/June 1, 2005 Page 4 F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019 F2020 F2021 Existing Purchase Contracts Resource Smart Duke Point Power Revelstoke Unit 5 F2022 F2023 F2024 F2025 F2006 and F2007 Calls 2004 Forecast before Demand Side Management 2004 Forecast after Energy Efficiency 2004 Forecast after Energy Efficiency and Load Displacement

5 Resource Options Generic Bundles Energy Supply Curves for Generic Bundles 175 Unit Energy Cost ($/MWh) Average Annual Energy (GWh) Small and Micro Hydro Medium Hydro Large Hydro Power Smart Natural Gas (Resource Smart) Natural Gas Coal Wind Geothermal Biomass Resource availability of coal and natural gas is not a constraint for generation within the province during the planning period. May 31/June 1, 2005 Page 5

6 Modelling Approach Portfolio Construction Portfolio Evaluation Portfolio Results Key Inputs Demand Existing Supply Resource Options Portfolios MAPA Multi-Attribute Portfolio Analysis Portfolio 3E Portfolio 3D Portfolio 3C Portfolio 3B Portfolio Transmission Planning Assumptions Time frame Planning Criteria HYSIM BC Hydro System Simulation Model Financial Assumptions Results Summary Energy Market Scenarios May 31/June 1, 2005 Page 6

7 Portfolio Analysis Models MAPA multi attribute portfolio analysis -Manually schedule new resources -Pulls attribute information from resource options database - Tracks attributes for portfolios - receives dispatch information from Hysim - calculates the portfolio cost (fixed charges plus dispatch cost) Hysim hydrological system simulation model May 31/June 1, 2005 Page 7 - dispatches the supply resources, and determines expected energy generation including imports/exports Order of dispatch: Take or pay contracts (fixed resources) Heritage hydro without storage Heritage hydro with storage, thermal, or imports

8 MAPA - Portfolio Development Schedule new resources 1) to meet demand (energy and capacity) 2) to meet objective of portfolio 3) based on least cost May 31/June 1, 2005 Page 8

9 MAPA - Scheduling Resources Portfolios: MAPA IEP xls w ith HysimOutput_NEB Price xls - 05 Mar P2f P4a BU1 Mata ID Project Nam e Existing PS 2, CFT, Res Smart, Committed Green/CBG Green - Least Cost 3 Units for Dependable Capacity yymm-yymm Existing Hydro HtgRes BCH Heritage excl. 155MW Ft.Nelson n.a PSM-2b Pow er Smart 2 n.a New BCH Hydro REV5 Revelstoke New Unit 5 n.a REV6 Revelstoke New Unit 6 n.a MCA5 Mica New Unit 5 n.a MCA6 Mica New Unit 6 n.a Site-C Peace River Site C n.a. Sub-Total New BCH Therm al - Kelly Lake Gas (I) GF-CCGT-500 Greenfield Combined Cycle Gas Turbine MW n.a GF-CCGT-500 Greenfield Combined Cycle Gas Turbine MW n.a. GF-CCGT-500 Greenfield Combined Cycle Gas Turbine MW n.a. GF-CCGT-250 Greenfield Combined Cycle Gas Turbine MW n.a GF-CCGT-250 Greenfield Combined Cycle Gas Turbine MW n.a. SH-L40-LM Small Hydro projects all less than $40/MWh n.a SH-40-NC Small Hydro projects betw een $40/MWh and $50/MWh n.a May 31/June 1, 2005 Page 9

10 MAPA Schedule of new additions Firm Energy Capability (GWh) 72,500 70,000 67,500 65,000 62,500 60,000 57,500 55,000 Non-Firm Imports Energy Balancing Resource (Green) Fixed Cost Resource 250 MW Coal 500 MW Coal Vancouver Island 250 MW CCGT Kelly Lake 250 MW CCGT Kelly Lake 500 MW CCGT Load Centre 250 MW CCGT Load Centre 500 MW CCGT 52,500 Downstream Benefits 50,000 47,500 45, May 31/June 1, Fiscal Year (Year Ending March 31) Page Burrard Repower Site C Green Resource Smart including Revelstoke and Mica VI Call for Tenders Existing Supply Peak Load with Power Smart

11 MAPA - Portfolio Development Fiscal Year (year ending March 31) Peak Load with Power Smart 56,910 57,508 58,104 58,987 59,854 60,768 61,692 62,579 63,495 Existing Supply 56,855 56,855 56,855 56,833 56,724 53,720 50,738 50,738 50,738 Revelstoke Unit Mica Unit Revelstoke Unit Mica Unit Site C ,285 4,570 4,570 4,570 Resource Smart Green ,643 2,999 4,406 5,267 7,234 Load Centre 250 MW CCGT Load Centre 500 MW CCGT Kelly Lake 250 MW CCGT Kelly Lake 500 MW CCGT Vancouver Island 250 MW CCGT Burrard Repower VI Call for Tenders 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1, MW Coal MW Coal Fixed Cost Resource Downstream Benefits Energy Balancing Resource (Green) Non-Firm Imports May 31/June 1, 2005 Page 11

12 MAPA Tracks attributes GHG & Local Emissions ImpGHG GHG Imports (1000 tonnes) GHG Cost (NPV $million) CO2 GHG Local (1000 tonnes) GHG Cost ( NPV $million) NOx NOx (tonnes) VOC VOC (tonnes) Sox SOx (tonnes) Co CO (tonnes) PM PM (tonnes) Footprint Reservoir, access roads, right-of-ways Transmissions right-of-ways Rate Impact Total Revenue Requirements Averaged in Total Rate $ $ $ $ $ $ Rate Change from 2003/04 Rate 2.09% 1.76% 1.47% 1.75% 3.22% 1.71% Time weighted Rates ($/Mwh) ref to 2003/04 $ $ $ $ $ $ Time Weighted Average Rate Change 0.92% 1.00% 1.04% 1.09% 1.22% 1.25% May 31/June 1, 2005 Page 12

13 Hysim Dispatch of resources Portfolio BGS3, Phased Shutdown (6% Discount Rate) NEB Gas Prices 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 Summary Sheet Dispatch (GWh) Load Total Generation HY00 BCH Large Hydro HY0H Other Hydro & small BCH BU00b Burrard DSB Burrard Repower / DSB ICP ICG Alcan Alcan ResourceSmaResource Smart GreenIPPs IPP+CBG VI CFT VI CFT CCGTF CCGT OtherGen Others Deficit Deficit TotImp Import TotExp Export BC Generation 57,532 57,737 58,256 59,639 61,231 65,313 May 31/June 1, 2005 Page 13

14 MAPA calculates portfolio cost Corporate Cost ($million) TotImp$ Import Cost TotExp$ Export Income Net Trade Cost Generation s New Capital Fixed Costs (existing resources): Large Hydro (BCH+Aquila) Small/Med Hydro (IPP) Burrard Other thermal and VI CFT Green Sub-total Fixed Costs (new resources): New Large Hydro Resource Smart Natural Gas Green Variable Costs: ExeHydro$ Existing Hydro Rental BU00b Burrard New CCGTs New CCGT Total Gen. Cost May 31/June 1, 2005 Page 14

15 Results from 2004 IEP 5,000 4,800 NPV ($Milions) 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 3,800 Gas & Electricity Price Forecast High NEB Alt HR EIA Confer 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 P2 BASE CASE Natural Gas at Remote Location P3a Power Smart 3 - Likely Achievable P3b Power Smart 3 & 4 - Upper Achievable P4a Green P4b Diverse Green P5 Natural Gas at Load Centre P6 Coal P7 Canadian Entitlement to Downstream Benefits P8 Large Hydro May 31/June 1, 2005 Page 15

16 80,000 Results from 2004 IEP Local GHG Emissions (1000 tonnes) Cumulative over 20 years 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 Gas & Electricity Price Forecast Confer EIA NEB High Alt HR 10,000 0 P2 BASE CASE Natural Gas at Remote Location P3a Power Smart 3 - Likely Achievable P3b Power Smart 3 & 4 - Upper Achievable P4a Green P4b Diverse Green P5 Natural Gas at Load Centre P6 Coal P7 Canadian Entitlement to Downstream Benefits P8 Large Hydro May 31/June 1, 2005 Page 16

17 5,000 Results from 2004 IEP 4,800 Net Present Value including Greenhouse Gas Cost ($10/tonne of GHG) Net Present Value excluding Greenhouse Gas Cost 4,600 4,400 NPV ($Millions) 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 P2 BASE CASE Natural Gas at Remote Location P3a Power Smart 3 - Likely Achievable P3b Power Smart 3 & 4 - Upper Achievable P4a Green P4b Diverse Green P5 Natural Gas at Load Centre P6 Coal P7 Canadian Entitlement to Downstream Benefits P8 Large Hydro May 31/June 1, 2005 Page 17

18 4,400 Results from 2004 IEP 4,200 4, % NPV ($Millions) 3,800 3,600 3,400 3, % -10% +20% -10% Power Smart 3 (+20% ), Power Smart 4 (+40% ) P4a* - $55/MWh -10% +20% +20% -10% -10% +20% -10% -10% 3,000 P2 BASE CASE Natural Gas at Remote Location P3a Power Smart 3 - Likely Achievable P3b Power Smart 3 & 4 - Upper Achievable P4a Green P5 Natural Gas at Load Centre P6 Coal P8 Large Hydro May 31/June 1, 2005

19 Results from 2004 IEP 16,000 14,000 Short Term (person-years) Long Term (full time equivalent jobs) 12,000 10,000 Workforce 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 P2 BASE CASE Natural Gas at Remote Location P3a Power Smart 3 - Likely Achievable P3b Power Smart 3 & 4 - Upper Achievable P4a Green P4b Diverse Green P5 Natural Gas at Load Centre P6 Coal P7 Canadian Entitlement to Downstream Benefits P8 Large Hydro May 31/June 1, 2005

20 Significant Difference What is a significant difference between portfolios for different attributes? Depends on accuracy of model Depends on uncertainty of input data Depends on significance of attribute (forcing affect) May 31/June 1, 2005 Page 20