Effect of changing anthropogenic and climate conditions on BOD loading and in-stream water quality in Europe
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1 Effect of changing anthropogenic and climate conditions on BOD loading and in-stream water quality in Europe Anja Voß, Ilona Bärlund, Manuel Punzet, Ellen Kynast, and Frank Voß Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel Ce n t e r f or En v i r o n m en t al Richard Williams, NERC-CEH Olli Malve, SYKE GWSP - Conference of the Global Catchment Initiative (GCI) Bonn, December 2010
2 Main issues for global water quality modelling with WorldQual Build a simple water quality model on global scale to assess future loading and indicate the subsequent state of aquatic ecosystems Develop long-term water quality scenarios with continental coverage (Europe) Develop a tool for on-going assessment of water quality Substances: BOD, TDS, TN, TP, total Coliforms, water temperature Why BOD?: indicator for the overall health of aquatic ecosystems, important for global research
3 Pollution loads Point sources Diffuse sources Scattered settlements Agriculture Geogenic background Urban surface runoff Domestic (sewage) Manufacturing (waste water)
4 BOD grid cell input for Europe 2005
5 BOD in-stream concentrations Europe July 2005
6 Key drivers of changes in in-stream concentration Example 1 Urban runoff and diffuse loadings Temperature Precipitation Climate Water availability Flow velocity Decay rates In-stream concentration
7 IPCC-SRES scenario family Global A1 B1 Self-interest/Reactive Solidarity/Pro-active IPCM4-A2 MIMR-A2 A2 B2 Regional
8 Effect of climate change on BOD loadings
9 Effect of climate change on in-stream concentration Changes in water quality classes in July (2000s vs. 2050s) (without socio-economic changes) IPCM4-A2
10 Key drivers of changes in in-stream concentration Example 2 Temperature Precipitation Climate Sectoral loadings Water availability Flow velocity Decay rates Socio-Economy Water use Population Treatment level Landuse Livestock In-stream concentration
11 Scenario overview A2
12 Effect of climate and socio-economic change on BOD loadings Western Europe Northern Europe Southern Europe Eastern Europe (central) Eastern Europe (eastern) Western Asia
13 Effect of climate and socio-economic change on instream concentration Changes in water quality classes in July (2000s vs. 2050s) Economy First IPCM4-A2
14 Effect of climate and socio-economic change on instream concentration Changes in water quality classes in July (2000s vs. 2050s) Sustainability Eventually IPCM4-A2
15 Conclusions Water quality is a great challenge for researchers. It is equally an issue for households, agriculture, and industrial development. With the implementation of a simple water quality model we are able to reproduce loadings to and concentrations within the river network. Offers a possibility to calculate scenarios on continental scale Climate change on its own will have a smaller effect on water quality Climate and socio-economic change together will have a bigger effect on water quality due to the interaction of climate water use water availability Socio-economic changes can overlay the effect of climate change
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