A European Space Agency Initiative on Climate Change

Transcription

1 A European Space Agency Initiative on Climate Change Dr Stephen Briggs Head, ESA Earth Observation Science, Applications and Future Technologies ILA, Berlin 27 May 2008

2 Based on information compiled by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP). (Image: MERIS mosaic) Data Sources: Carbon Dioxide: NOAA. Land Cover: Goldewijk & Battjes, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Netherlands, Temperature: Source unspecified. Species Extinction: Reid & Miller, World Resources Institute, Washington DC, Nitrogen: Vitousek, 1994, Human Population: US Bureau of the Census

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4 Vulnerability Assessment : Impacts as a function of Climate Change (Parry et al

5 Climate change is a major environmental, development and security issue that, left unaddressed, threatens a sustainable future for both developed and developing countries. Bob Watson, Chief Scientist, UK Dept. of Environment & ex- Chairman IPCC, Chief Scientist World Bank & NASA Financial Times, 15 th April 2008

6 Emission scenarios / stabilisation levels IPCC (2007) WG III, Figs. SPM.7,8

7 Contributions to uncertainty in predicted decadal mean temperature versus the lead-time of the prediction (Cox & Stephenson (2007) Science, 317, 207.) Initial Condition Uncertainty Total Uncertainty Emissions Scenario Uncertainty Process/Parameter Uncertainty

8 Europe s expanding capacity ERS 1 ERS ENVISAT Oceans Sea Ice Cryosphere Land Surface Climatology + Global Ozone + Terrestrial biosphere + Ocean colour + Atmospheric chemistry

9 GLOBAL SEA LEVEL RISE Courtesy of Remko Scharroo

10 Estimate of Residual Trends in Global Sea Surface Temperature AVHRR data trend: 0.09 K / decade ERS-1/2 ATSR data trend: 0.13 K / decade

11 Greenland mass balance Mass deficit: 83±30 Gt/yr in ±37 Gt/yr in /3rd of loss due to dynamic thinning. Greenland s contribution to sea level rise has been doubling between 1995 and 2005 Eric Rignot, JPL Changes in the Velocity Structure of the Greenland Ice Sheet, Science vol. 311 no. 5763, pp Courtesy of Rignot & Kanagaratnam,

12 ESA Climate Change Initiative - Background UNFCCC: creation of Convention post-unced Rio 1992 GCOS: 1992 given responsibility for defining climate observational needs GCOS Process (recent steps) Essential Climate Variables defined (2003) Second Adequacy Report (2AP) (2003) definitive document on status of data Implementation plan (2004) Requirements for satellite-based products for Climate (2006) (GCOS Climate Monitoring Principles) CEOS Response to GCOS: ESA Initiative on Climate Change Coordinated Response of Space Agencies to GCOS Requirements Presented by CEOS to UNFCCC CoP 12 in 2006 (interim) & CoP 13 in 2007

13 Programmatic Rationale Europe via EU is leading post-kyoto negotiations (Bali-roadmap) Space Agencies have taken responsibility for actions wrt UNFCCC Systematic observations / ECVs No current dedicated funded ESA programme exists Key European Asset: EO Archives (ESA & other) Opportunity to strengthen European role ESA in coordination with other Space Agencies International partners, Eumetsat, ESA Member States DUE Globxxx projects (see later) provide precursors High communication value for benefits of space, and for climate change itself

14 Scope of initiative WHAT? To systematically generate, preserve and give access to longterm data sets of the Essential Climate Variables (ECV) to meet needs of UNFCCC and IPCC WHY? EO from space plays a vital role in this endeavour and ESA through partnership in CEOS has committed to deliver global observations of ECV and associated products. OUTPUT ECV Records: Quantifying the state of the Climate system to (I) advance our knowledge of climate change, and (II) support work of UNFCCC and IPCC for mitigation and adaptation WHEN? ECV are needed up-to-date, and as soon as possible to support climate science and policy

15 The climate information system (from K. Trenberth: Observational needs for climate prediction and adaptation, WMO Bulletin 57(1), January 2008) and the position of the ESA climate change initiative within it.

16 INPUT FROM Long Term Archiving Programmes Multi-mission infrastructure Gather Re-processing ex archive (e.g. calibration) FEEDBACK LOOP: Deliver ECV generation (e.g. validation & bias) Exploit ECV assimilation & assessment OUTPUT TO International Climate Programmes EC & MS R&D Programmes IPCC Process, UNFCCC Show Education & Awareness

17 Global Land Cover at 300 meters (GlobCover project)

18 Ocean Colour pre-cursor (GLOBCOLOUR project) Global Ocean Colour for Carbon Cycle Research ESA GlobColour Project Global merged MERISMODIS-SeaWiFS ocean colour product (Chl_a) April Credit: ACRI, LOV, Univ. Plymouth, ICESS, NIVA, Brockmann Consult, DLR, ESA, NASA, GeoEye

19 ESA EO Launch Schedule ID Task Name 1 EO Programmes 2 MSG 2 3 Metop A 4 GOCE 5 SMOS 6 Cryosat 2 7 Aeolus 8 MSG 3 9 Swarm 10 Metop B 11 MSG 4 12 GMES Sentinel 1a- 1b 13 GMES Sentinel 2a- 2b 14 EarthCare 15 GMES Sentinel 3a- 3b 16 Earth Explorer 7 17 Metop C 18 MTG 1 ESA Initiative on Climate Change EO Programmes MSG 2 Metop A GOCE SMOS Cryosat 2 Aeolus MSG 3 Swarm Metop B MSG 4 GMES Sentinel 1a- 1b GMES Sentinel 2a- 2b EarthCare GMES Sentinel 3a- 3b Earth Explorer 7 Metop C MTG 1