Objectives: Learn more about similar watershed modeling efforts and explore opportunities for collaboration or model comparisons.

Transcription

1 Modeling of Canadian Agricultural Watersheds Projects & Data discussion 9 a.m a.m. (eastern), Monday, December 12, 2016 Facilitated by Becca Muenich, Graham Sustainability Institute, University of Michigan Objectives: Learn more about similar watershed modeling efforts and explore opportunities for collaboration or model comparisons. Discuss data sources and other strategies for modeling agricultural practices in different regions of Ontario. Agenda: Welcome and Introductions (Becca Muenich) Modeling Project Introductions (5 min. each ~ general approach, geographies, collaboration opportunities) Great Lakes Agricultural Stewardship Initiative Priority Subwatershed Project (Kevin McKague) MOECC s Mult-Watershed Nutrient Study (Mohamed Mohamed and Chris Wellen) Thames River modeling (Luis Leon) Great Lakes Midwest Sparrow Model (Glenn Benoy) U-M Watershed Assessment of Nutrient Contributions to the Detroit River (Awoke Teshager) Medway Creek Model and Edge-of-Field Monitoring (Merrin Macrae) Agricultural Data and Modeling Decisions IJC Manure Study (John Bratton) Discussion on data sources and availability (Awoke Teshager, Becca Muenich) o parameters for fertilizer use, manure management, locations of livestock Discussion of other questions, opportunities and challenges (All) o strategies for model comparisons and data sharing Contact List for Participants on Conference Call (organized alphabetically by last name): Name Organization Raj Bejankiwar International Joint Commission bejankiwarr@windsor.ijc.org Glenn Bennoy International Joint Commission bennoyg@ottawa.ijc.org Dieter Bouma University of Michigan boumad@umich.edu John F. Bratton Limnotech jbratton@limno.com Tom Bruulsema International Plant Nutrition Institute tom.bruulsema@ipni.net Gabrielle Ferguson Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs Gabrielle.Ferguson@ontario.ca Pradeep Goel Ministry of Ontario for Environment and Climate Change pradeep.goel@ontario.ca Luis Leon Environment and Climate Change Canada luis.leon@canada.ca Merrin Macrae University of Waterloo mmacrae@uwaterloo.ca

2 Kevin McKague Mohamed Mohamed Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs Ministry of Ontario for Environment and Climate Change Rebecca Muenich University of Michigan Dale Robertson United States Geological Survey Ramesh Rudra University of Guelph Katie Stammler Essex Region Conservation Authority Awoke Teshager University of Michigan Chris Wellen University of Windsor Wanhong Yang University of Guelph Notes from Presentations and Discussion on Call Part I. Modeling Project Introductions Great Lakes Agricultural Stewardship Initiative (GLASI) Priority Subwatershed Project (PSP) - Kevin McKague, OMAFRA (see slides below) Project website: Goal is to implement as many BMPs as possible in small watersheds so that they can monitor water quantity/quality at the edge of field and watershed outlet to assess effectiveness. Will involve monitoring of land activities through detailed, voluntary reporting by landowners and local climate stations. Also completing modeling as not everything can be captured by implementing and monitoring BMPs in 2 years. Wanhong Yang and Ramesh Rudra leading modeling efforts across six watersheds; two (North Medway and Jeanettes Creek) are in the Huron-Erie corridor watershed. Jeanettes is unique in having outlets that only flow when actively pumped. Modelers will be incorporating advanced SWAT techniques such as CanSWAT and SWATDrain to model at this fine scale. They are using the NMAN software to help keep track of and store land management activities Multi-watershed Nutrient Study - Mohamed Mohamed, MOECC, and Chris Wellen, U. of Windsor (see map below) Currently working in multiple watersheds, two of which are in the Thames River basin. Not implementing BMPs as part of the study, rather studying the current system, including nutrient export, event based sampling, weather, land use and land management (using GLASI landowner questionnaire). In the project, specifically looking at agricultural headwater watersheds that are small enough for intensive study, but large enough to provide variability in terms of land management, soils and outputs Chris is leading the modeling using the HYPE model to develop relationship between land use and physiography and nutrient export. HYPE is a simpler model than SWAT, will not include different BMP scenarios or short term variability. Sees potential for doing model comparisons in the future.

3 Thames River Modeling Study - Luis Leon, ECCC (no slides) Applying CanSWAT version in this SWAT modeling study of the Thames River watershed. Calculating loading, running scenarios, especially climate change scenarios. Also are working on a Lake St. Clair model that includes hydrodynamics and water quality. Great Lakes Midwest SPARROW Model - Glenn Benoy, IJC, and Dale Robertson, USGS (see slides below) Currently have a model for the Great Lakes Basin that is de-trended to 2002, but working on an update that will be de-trended to De-trending is a smoothing that occurs over year window for hydrology and weather data. This allows you to ID average hotspots that persist across multiple years. Lots of work to compile and harmonize data across large geography manure, fertilizer, stream flow, soils, land cover etc. At completion of project all input data and the model will be publicly available. Interested in collaborations. Sparrow can only look at few different management scenarios, but can do hotspot analysis to compare with other models and 2012 models not directly comparable due to different methodologies, but are thinking of ways to do this kind of comparison. Question from Tom about whether model distinguishes between manure that is excreted vs. applied to a field it does and this is particularly important for N which is readily volatilizes, but less important for P dynamics. Watershed Assessment of Nutrient Loads to the Detroit River - Awoke Teshager and Becca Muenich, U. of Michigan (see slides below) Funded from by Erb Family Foundation Project website: Goal is to assess nutrient loads in Huron-Erie Corridor from multiple sources and work with an advisory group (policy, management community) to explore options to reduce P loads. Currently in model development phase, focused on identifying appropriate land management data to incorporate into the model; also compiling monitoring data for calibration/validation. Also incorporating a lake model of Lake St. Clair (still exploring exact coupling mechanism), as well as digging into finer scale analysis/modeling of urban areas. Team is setting up model to enable comparisons with a few sub watersheds and intensive monitoring sites. Question about data about loads from Lake Huron to Lake St. Clair contact Serghei Bacaniov (bocaniov@umich.edu); Becca can help make connection if you are interested. Wanhong asked about SWAT version U-M is using 2012 SWAT, but knows there are more specialized updates coming out of U. Guelph. Discussion about how boundaries for this project compare to Thames model HRUs. Comparison runs are possible but different scale and input data must be taken into account. Best to look at whether models agree in direction of change rather than exact numbers. Medway Creek Model and Edge-of-Field Monitoring - Merrin Macrae, U. of Waterloo (see map below) Doing a compare/contrast study with partners in Quebec. Work is focused on Medway Creek (in upper Thames, highlighted in map) and Missouri Creek. In Medway Creek, student is incorporating edge-of-field monitoring data into SWAT to parameterize and calibrate model, not changing base model routines. Otherwise model is based on publicly available data, including some image analysis to identify land management variables.

4 Part II. Agricultural Data and Modeling Decisions IJC Fertilizer Work Group Study - John Bratton, Limnotech (see map below). Commissioned by IJC Science Advisory Board and their Science Priority Board. Limnotech is compiling data on nutrient inputs into the watershed, specifically comparing fertilizer and manure inputs. They are considering application techniques, manure sources and handling, the impact of greenhouses, and other sources like round-up, gypsum, etc. Geographic range includes watersheds for Huron-Erie Corridor and Western Basin of Lake Erie (see map below). The outcome for this work will be a report on this available data. Should be wrapped up in late spring Similar to USDA study for Maumee basin, where they concluded that manure provided about 15-20% of nutrient needs of crops. Also producing two state of the science reports: monitoring review and modeling review. Question about scale of reporting data availability is often counties for US but will be converted to watersheds. Question about estimates for manure produced for animals. For example, Canada estimates lower manure production rates. John will need to harmonize estimates but will be transparent about how. Kevin offered to help with understanding US vs. Canadian units. Discussion of Data Sources/Availability Fertilizer/Manure sources: o Glenn says Canadian Ag Census has a lot of data; have worked specifically with Statistics Canada and the National Research Council of Canada. Some of their data is at higher level and then scaled based on land use. Best to follow up with another call. o Kevin: part of the reason for doing smaller scale studies is to help verify some of the general assumptions about practices such as agronomic fertilizer rates. o Kevin: likely not as many large animal operations in Canada as in US/Ohio. General management o Becca: detailed models get data directly from producers, though this may not be shareable beyond project o Wanhong: on larger modeling projects they may consult with agricultural experts in the area to identify common management details. o Kevin: Publication 29 Drainage Guide for Ontario ( has some recommendations on depth and spacing that could be used in lieu of actual numbers for tile drains. OMAFRA tile drain layer indicates which properties have systematic or random tile drainage systems, but must be careful that variables like bushes can complicate interpretation. o Kevin: probably easiest to get BMPs (like filters, etc.) from aerial photos and remote sensing. DEMs can identify water control basins, but requires detailed analysis. Discussion of other Challenges/Questions/Opportunities Gabrielle: how do we deal with the fact that some data is not collected during the winter/non-growing season and we think BMP performance in winter is important? o Becca: SWAT is based on detailed landscape and physical variables. Primarily driven by growing season data but information (e.g., water quality outputs) can be extracted for non-growing season. It s hard to know how well model is performing during this time if winter monitoring data is not available for comparison.

5 o Ramesh: data from previous studies suggests in this part of Canada that winter flow is increasing and spring flow is decreasing. Other studies have also found that models do not fully capture these seasonal flow patterns and may over predict flow (SWAT & AGNAPS). Gabrielle: how do we address the differences and compare among the large-scale and small-scale modeling? o Smaller scale, detailed studies can identify variables that must be considered in larger models. o Becca: can extract outputs from larger models that match stream outlet points used by smaller models. Can also use the exact land management variables used in smaller models to see how results compare across projects as well as within project team when using detailed vs. generalized land management parameters. o Pradeep: could be issues with timeline of project, as well as time-scale of projects. Need to potentially look at annual vs. sub-annual scale in comparing outputs; Could be very interesting to compare across the different modeling approaches o Becca: we hope to have a calibrated model by spring Gabrielle: how do research teams deal with sharing data, especially given desire to publish? o Dale: everything in SPARROW will be publicly available, including base layers and outputs. Dale would prefer to collaborate and discuss data, but public data sharing is a new federal mandate. Plan to use o Becca: UMich study will also be sharing data and results, and potentially interactive tool publicly.

6 Project Consultation Call Modeling of Canadian Agricultural Watersheds Why are we interested? Study Area Huron Erie Corridor Watershed Becca Muenich December 12, 9 11 a.m. Phone: Code: % TP to WLB Awoke Teshager Don Scavia Call Objectives Learn more about similar watershed modeling efforts and explore opportunities for collaboration or model comparisons. Discuss data sources and other strategies for modeling agricultural practices in different regions of Ontario. Communication on the Call Mute your line during presentations (*6). Open time for questions and discussion after each presentation. Use chat box if you prefer. We invited: You Can See Call Participants Watershed modeling teams working in Huron Erie Corridor Ag experts Project advisors Others that you helped us identify

7 Agenda Part I Modeling Project Introductions (5 min each approach, geography and collaboration opportunities) Great Lakes Agricultural Stewardship Initiative Priority Subwatershed Project (Kevin McKague) MOECC s Multi Watershed Nutrient Study (Mohamed Mohamed) Environment Canada modeling (Luis Leon) Great Lakes Midwest Sparrow Model (Glenn Benoy) U M Watershed Assessment of Nutrient Contributions to the Detroit River (Becca Muenich) Medway Creek Model and Edge of Field Monitoring(Merrin Macrae) Agenda Part II Agricultural Data and Modeling Decisions IJC Fertilizer Work Group (John Bratton) Questions from U M Watershed Assessment (Awoke Teshager, Becca Muenich) parameters for fertilizer use, manure management, locations of livestock Discussion on data and other strategies for best representing diversity of agricultural practices Other modeling challenges or questions? Others? Agenda Part I Modeling Project Introductions (5 min each approach, geography and collaboration opportunities) Great Lakes Agricultural Stewardship Initiative Priority Subwatershed Project (Kevin McKague) GLASIPriority Subwatershed Project Modelling Activities within the Detroit River Basin MOECC s Mult Watershed Nutrient Study (Mohamed Mohamed) Environment Canada modeling (Luis Leon) Great Lakes Midwest Sparrow Model (Glenn Benoy) U M Watershed Assessment of Nutrient Contributions to the Detroit River (Becca Muenich) Kevin McKague, OMAFRA Webex Dec 12, 2016 Others?

8 PSP Background Priority Subwatershed Project (PSP) is a sub program of OMAFRA s Great Lakes Agricultural Stewardship Initiative (GLASI)Other projects intertwining through time (e.g AAFC: undertakingmore detailed soils investigation in the North Medway, a controlled drainage study was underway in the area prior to this study etc.) GLASI PSP Watershed Locations Overview of GLASI Priority Subwatershed Project Program can be found at: programs/glasi/priority subwatershed project/ Project Oversight/Contractor is OSCIA (Ontario Soil and Crop Improvement Association). Delivery Agents are the local Conservation Authorities.Key authoritiesfor sites pertinent to the Detroit River Study are: UTRCA, LTVCA PSP Objectives Objective:To implement as many BMPS as possible within a watershed and monitor the effects on water quality leaving the month.(high cost share, focused BMPS) Local climate stations established Monitoring water quantity and quality at the mouth and at some field edges within the areas(continuous or grab as budget allows) Monitoring Land Activities through voluntary cooperation with landowners Recognize we will NEVER be able to fully realize the BMP effects within the project s study period (about 2 years).therefore also has a modelling component PSP Modelling Approach Selected Modellers Gully, Garvey Glen, North Medway (Wanhong U of G Geography) Wigle, Jeanettes Creek, Kettle(Rudra U of G Engineering ) General Plan: Involve the modellers early into the study to help identify most critical field data collection requirements for modelling.main modelling activities are towards end of study. Maximize the field data collection with available budget Monitor water flow and water quality at what are believed to be key points in the priority watershed areas(continuous as well as grab sampling as budget allows) Will be applying various versions of SWAT to these relatively small watersheds (i.e. small watershed application of SWAT (CanSWAT, SWATDrain, SWATVSA) Still in field instrumentation, data collection stage of project.

9 North Medway GLASI Watershed Jeanettes Creek (Beadreau/Deary/Dauphin Drains) Area:18.6 km2 (with 3 pumped outlets) Lowland Corn/soy/wheat Little manure Monitored pump outlet locations Collecting Land Activity Information Crops and Tillage(1 rotation cycle or 5 years) Fertilizer Application/Methods Rotational Nutrient Balance Organized and Analysed using NMAN software P Soil test = 32 (i.e. Fall 2012 to Fall 2013) Major drive to collect land activity data will occur this winter Other data being requested: Soil testing Tile drainage systems Other conservation measures implemented (e.g. grassed waterways, WASCoBs Data collection is voluntary Manure Application/Methods Can convert information stored in NMAN into a spreadsheet format

10 Importance of Local Data Collection Gully PSP Example Hydrology Modelled using Readily Available Data Importance of Local Data Collection Gully PSP Example Hydrology Modelled using Site Specific Data Flow at GULGUL5 NS =0.45 Flow at GULGUL /7/14 12/27/14 2/15/15 4/6/15 5/26/15 7/15/15 9/3/15 10/23/15 12/12/15 1/31/ Observed Modelled Agenda Part I Modeling Project Introductions (5 min each approach, geography and collaboration opportunities) Great Lakes Agricultural Stewardship Initiative Priority Subwatershed Project (Kevin McKague) MOECC s Mult Watershed Nutrient Study (Mohamed Mohamed, Chris Wellen) Environment Canada modeling (Luis Leon) Great Lakes Midwest Sparrow Model (Glenn Benoy) U M Watershed Assessment of Nutrient Contributions to the Detroit River (Becca Muenich) Others?

11 Agenda Part I Modeling Project Introductions (5 min each approach, geography and collaboration opportunities) Great Lakes Agricultural Stewardship Initiative Priority Subwatershed Project (Kevin McKague) MOECC s Mult Watershed Nutrient Study (Mohamed Mohamed) Environment Canada modeling of Thames River (Luis Leon) Great Lakes Midwest Sparrow Model (Glenn Benoy) U M Watershed Assessment of Nutrient Contributions to the Detroit River (Becca Muenich) Others? Agenda Part I Modeling Project Introductions (5 min each approach, geography and collaboration opportunities) Great Lakes Agricultural Stewardship Initiative Priority Subwatershed Project (Kevin McKague) MOECC s Mult Watershed Nutrient Study (Mohamed Mohamed) Environment Canada modeling (Luis Leon) Great Lakes Midwest Sparrow Model (Glenn Benoy) U M Watershed Assessment of Nutrient Contributions to the Detroit River (Becca Muenich) Others? Modelling of Canadian Agricultural Watersheds: Binational SPARROW Model for the Great Lakes Basin SPARROW Models: Four Key Datasets Monitoring stations Stream network Dr. Glenn Benoy (IJC) Dr. Dale Robertson (USGS) Sources Model Development Land-to-water delivery

12 Partners & Collaborators Area to Create Enhanced Network and Catchments Canada United States Environment and Climate Change Canada US Environmental Protection Agency Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada US Forest Service Natural Resources Canada US Army Corps of Engineers Statistics Canada Heidelberg University Ontario Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry Manitoba Sustainable Development Saskatchewan Water Security Agency City of Winnipeg Departments of Natural Resources, Environmental Quality, Pollution Control, Health, among others, in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Virgina, West Virginia, Wisconsin Winnipeg River ~ 152, 396 km^2 Great Lakes ~ 555, 118 km^2 Credit: Base map from OpenStreetMap contributors Sources of Stream Networks Reach Catchments Allow Areal Variables to be Calculated

13 Land Use / Land Cover Canadian LC Dataset US LC Dataset Harmonized Land Use / Land Cover Water Open Water Open Water Snow/Ice Perennial Snow/Ice Perennial Snow/Ice Developed Developed Urban Barren/Non-vegetated Rock/Rubble Exposed Land Sparsely Vegetated Bedrock Sparsely Vegetated Till-colluvium Bare soil with cryptogam crust - frost boils Bryoids Herb Tussock graminoid tundra Dry graminoid prostrate dwarf shrub tundra Barren Land Unconsolidated Shore Lichens Moss Barren All Forest (13 types) Forest Forest Shrub (6 types) Shrub Grassland/Herbaceous Sedge/Herbaceous Grassland/Shrub Perennial Cropland and Pasture Pasture/Hay Pasture Cultivated Agricultural Annual Cropland Cultivated Crops Agricultural Land All Wetland (5 types) Wetland Wetland Fertilizer & Manure Both act as nutrient (N & P) sources in the models Both datasets are derived from national agricultural surveys (census) Fertilizer & Manure Both act as nutrient (N & P) sources in the model Both datasets are derived from national Agricultural surveys Canadian data available by sub-subdrainage areas (SSDA) US data available by US counties (political boundaries) Canadian data available by sub-subdrainage areas (SSDA) Interpolated data from available CDs and fertilizer by CCSs; political boundaries US data available by US counties (political boundaries) CD = Census Division; CCS = Consolidated Census Sub-division

14 Fertilizer & Manure Fertilizer Distribute data to Agricultural and Pasture land classifications US Based on county-level estimates (Ruddy, et al., 2006) Canada: Source: AAFC/SC - purchase by area in $/ha Fertilizer Canada - expenditures by province Calculate & apply conversion factors for N & P Distribute to appropriate LC (Ag/Past) Fertilizer Manure Issues!: Canadian data suppressed due to Statistics Act Solution: Use CCS and CD data instead Sources: Livestock: Animal head count / Area Conversion factor for N & P Requires harmonization between Canada & US Develop cross-walk tables Watch catchment borders: International (US/Canada) Model boundary Assumption: Manure applied to Agricultural and Pasture LC Distribute data to LC

15 Manure 2002 Farm Fertilizer TP Inputs Issues!: Canadian SSDA data suppressed Use CD data where available Some data in those regions still not fully available - have to live with Catchments at or near borders as for fertilizer Soil Agenda Part I Canadian data Worked closely with AAFC: Soil Landscape v.2.2 Assumption on a range of permeability values Determined based on surface texture Harmonize US/Canada data Based on STATSGO data Developed: Soil permeability (cm/hr) Clay content (%) Modeling Project Introductions (5 min each approach, geography and collaboration opportunities) Great Lakes Agricultural Stewardship Initiative Priority Subwatershed Project (Kevin McKague) MOECC s Mult Watershed Nutrient Study (Mohamed Mohamed) Environment Canada modeling (Luis Leon) Great Lakes Midwest Sparrow Model (Glenn Benoy) U M Watershed Assessment of Nutrient Contributions to the Detroit River (Becca Muenich, Awoke Teshager) Others?

16 Watershed Assessment of Nutrient Loads to the Detroit River Project Study Area Watershed Assessment of Nutrient Loads to the Detroit River Project period: Funded by the Erb Family Foundation Project Objectives: Engage policy and management community Develop watershed models to assess nutrient loads from different sources. Explore options for reducing P loads from the most important sources Watershed Assessment of Nutrient Loads to the Detroit River Status Initial model setup completed (pending AG comments if further modification is needed) Defining subbasins Defining Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) in each subbasin Identifying most common crop rotations in each HRU Creating all SWAT model text files Watershed Assessment of Nutrient Loads to the Detroit River Status Preparing management input files Point sources Fertilize/manure application Tile drainage Others Preparing calibration files Flow/water quality observations

17 Watershed Assessment of Nutrient Loads to the Detroit River Managing Lake St. Clair A Lake model has been developed for the Lake ELCOM CAEDYM Lake St. Clair 3 D hydrodynamic & water quality model Modifying SWAT reservoir parameters/routines based on Lake Model results Using a combination of SWAT and a Lake model Urban areas Urban modeling and source identification Watershed Assessment of Nutrient Loads to the Detroit River Agenda Part I Modeling Project Introductions (5 min each approach, geography and collaboration opportunities) Medway Creek Great Lakes Agricultural Stewardship Initiative Priority Subwatershed Project (Kevin McKague) MOECC s Multi Watershed Nutrient Study (Mohamed Mohamed) Environment Canada modeling (Luis Leon) Great Lakes Midwest Sparrow Model (Glenn Benoy) U M Watershed Assessment of Nutrient Contributions to the Detroit River (Becca Muenich) Medway Creek Model and Edge of Field Monitoring(Merrin Macrae) Others?

18 Agenda Part II Agricultural Data and Modeling Decisions IJC Fertilizer Work Group (John Bratton) IJC Manure and Fertilizer Study John Bratton Limnotech Questions from U M Watershed Assessment (Awoke Teshager, Becca Muenich) parameters for fertilizer use, manure management, locations of livestock Discussion on data and other strategies for best representing diversity of agricultural practices Other modeling challenges or questions? Agenda Part II Agricultural Data and Modeling Decisions IJC Fertilizer Work Group (John Bratton) Questions from U M Watershed Assessment (Awoke Teshager, Becca Muenich) parameters for fertilizer use, manure management, locations of livestock Discussion on data and other strategies for best representing diversity of agricultural practices Other modeling challenges or questions? Watershed Assessment of Nutrient Loads to the Detroit River Questions/Needs Local source to estimate fertilizer application at a finer scale than province How previous SWAT/similar modelers estimated Rate and timing per crop type Experience from agriculture experts Manure production Amount of manure (we have livestock counts/county) Locations of large feeding operations (we have number of livestock farms/county) Tile drainage We have OMAFRA tile drain layer Depth and spacing BMPs Cover crops Buffer strips Grassed waterways etc