EMISSIO REDUCTIO A D CO TROL RATIFICATIO OF GOTHE BURG PROTOCOL A D OBLIGATIO S OF ATIO AL I DUSTRY

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1 EMISSIO REDUCTIO A D CO TROL RATIFICATIO OF GOTHE BURG PROTOCOL A D OBLIGATIO S OF ATIO AL I DUSTRY Aleksandar JOVOVIĆ Dušan TODOROVIĆ Marko OBRADOVIĆ Dejan RADIĆ University of Belgrade, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Serbia I TRODUCTIO The Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution is one of the central means for protecting our environment. It has, over the years, served as a bridge between different political systems and as a factor of stability in years of political change. It has substantially contributed to the development of international environmental law and has created the essential framework for controlling and reducing the damage to human health and the environment caused by transboundary air pollution. It is a successful example of what can be achieved through intergovernmental cooperation. The Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution entered into force in It has been extended by eight specific protocols: Protocol on Long-term Financing of the Cooperative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP) (Geneva, September 1984); Protocol on the Reduction of Sulphur Emissions or their Transboundary Fluxes by Ćat least 30 per cent (Helsinki, July 1985);

2 Protocol concerning the Control of Nitrogen Oxides or their Transboundary Fluxes (Sofia, October 1988); Protocol concerning the Control of Emissions of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) or their Transboundary Fluxes (Geneva, November 1991); Protocol on Further Reduction of Sulphur Emissions (Oslo, June 1994); Protocol on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) (Aarhus, June 1998); Protocol on Heavy Metals (Aarhus, June 1998); Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone (Gothenburg, November 1999); Former Yugoslavia ratified the Convention by the Law on Ratification and the EMEP protocol by the Law on Ratification of the Protocol to the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution on Long-Term Financiang of the Co-operative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-Range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe. The Republic of Serbia accepted the Convention and the EMEP protocol as legal successor from the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. So far, Serbia has not ratified any of the Protocols following the EMEP Protocol. Determination of our country is accession to EU and harmonization of national legislation with EU regulations, as well as ratification of the 1998 Protocol on Heavy Metals, the 1998 Protocol on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs Protocol) and the 1999 Protocol on Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone (Gothenburg Protocol) to the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution. According to the National Programme for Integration of the Republic of Serbia into EU (NPI), three mentioned Protocols should be ratified in Since obligation taken over within these international and EU regulations will require significant activities in the state with the engagement of financial means, it is necessary to carefully plan those activities. The process of ratification and implementation of the Protocol on heavy metals, POPs Protocol and Gothenburg Protocol is presented in the National Action Plan (NAP). The NAP includes the legislation of the Republic of Serbia relevant to the CLRTAP protocols, ratified conventions and multilateral agreements, competent institutions responsible for the implementation of specific requirements of the Protocols, as well as analysis of the current national legislation in accordance with the Protocols requirements, propose measures for reducing and control of the emissions of sulphur, nitrogen oxides, ammonium, volatile organic compounds, heavy metals and persistent organic pollutants caused by anthropogenic activities and for which there is a probability to cause unfavorable effects on human health and natural ecosystems. The Plan includes detailed analysis of each specific requirement of the relevant Protocol, describes the status and proposes future measures, responsible institutions and timeframe for their implementation. SHORT I TRODUCTIO TO THE GOTHE BURG PROTOCOL Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone (Gothenburg Protocol) represents a document oriented towards reduction of emission of a great number of pollutants with its objective being acidification, eutrophication and ground-level ozone abatement. According to the Protocol provisions, previously mentioned objectives will be accomplished through implementation of national emission limits set for sulphur dioxide,

3 nitrogen oxides, ammonia. It has been estimated that the mentioned emission limits defined by the Protocol for each country which signed it, must be achieved by The Gothenburg Protocol was signed on November 30, 1999 in Gothenburg, Sweden, as 8 th Protocol of the CLRTAP convention. On March 1, 2005, Portugal was the sixteenth country that ratified the Gothenburg Protocol, which has officially enabled the Protocol to enter into force. In that way, the Gothenburg Protocol entered into force on May 17, The Protocol also sets tight limit values for specific emission sources (e.g. combustion plant, electricity production, dry cleaning, cars and lorries) and requires best available techniques to be used to keep emissions down. VOC emissions from such products as paints or aerosols will also have to be cut. Finally, farmers will have to take specific measures to control ammonia emissions. Guidance documents adopted together with the Protocol provide a wide range of abatement techniques and economic instruments for the reduction of emissions in the relevant sectors, including transport. It has been estimated that once the Protocol is implemented, the area in Europe with excessive levels of acidification will shrink from 93 million hectares in 1990 to 15 million hectares. That with excessive levels of eutrophication will fall from 165 million hectares in 1990 to 108 million hectares. The number of days with excessive ozone levels will be halved. Consequently, it is estimated that life-years lost as a result of the chronic effects of ozone exposure will be about 2,300,000 lower in 2010 than in 1990, and there will be approximately 47,500 fewer premature deaths resulting from ozone and particulate matter in the air. The exposure of vegetation to excessive ozone levels will be 44% down on Since 2007, a working body of United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), in charge of strategies and estimates, has been implementing activities regarding the revision of Gothenburg Protocol. The work of this revised text is expected towards the end of The most important provisions of the Gothenburg Protocol are: Emission limits adopted for 2010 refer to limiting sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOC) and ammonia (NH 3 ). Definition of emission limits (given in t/year) is based on expected influence of pollutants, as well as on effects and expenses of available measures for emissions abatement. Emission limits have been set individually for each signatory state. Highest emission cut has been set for the signatory states with high emissions of considered pollutants but which do not require application of costly measures for emission abatement. Emission limits are set for specific emission sources, such as combustion plants, electro power plants, cement plants, dry cleaning facilities. The best available techniques (BAT) are to be used in order to achieve pollutant emissions control. Various instructions defining different techniques as well as economic instruments for considered emissions abatement have been adopted as guidance documents. As for the specific emission sources, the Protocol designates emission limits for NO x originating from big stationary turbines. Protocol provisions designate that an adequate emission limit defined for new stationary sources must become obligatory a year after, at latest, the official Gothenburg Protocol entered into force in a considered state. Sulphur content ceiling of 0,2% has been designated for gaseous and liquid fossil fuels (except for the fuels used in motor vehicles) which became obligatory on July 1, 2000, i.e., the ceiling content of 0,1% which became obligatory in January 2008.

4 Implementation of Gothenburg Protocol provisions is conducted in the EU through application of Directive on National Emission Limits (NEC Directive). It is expected that the majority of states which ratified the Gothenburg Protocol in 1999, will achieve the obligations defined by the Protocol. Resulting from reduced usage of coal in the European countries industry and displacing it with natural gas during 70s and 80s of the last century, European countries have achieved cuts in pollutant emissions even higher than required by the Gothenburg Protocol. Therefore, forest ecosystems and lakes acidification in a great part of Europe has been stopped. However, abatement of NO x emissions in the traffic sector was even lower than it was initially expected. As the Protocol designates the requirement for a relatively modest reduction of ammonium emission, deposition of nitrogen components is increasing. During its drafting, it was estimated that implementation of the Gothenburg Protocol will lead to a cut in sulphur dioxides emissions in 1990 of at least 63%, 41% in NO x emissions, 40% in volatile organic compounds and 17% in ammonia emissions. Additionally, expected effects of Protocol implementation in Europe are: to reduce areas with acidification level higher than allowed from 90 million hectares registered in 1990 to 15 million hectares; to reduce areas with eutrophication level higher than allowed from 165 million hectares registered in 1990 to 108 million hectares; to reduce the number of days with ground-level ozone higher than allowed by 50%. Resulting from the previously mentioned, it is estimated that the reduction in years of human life expectancy which occurs as a consequence of exposure to ground-level ozone in 2010 will be by 2.3 million lower than in Additionally, it is expected that number of premature deaths resulting from exposure to effects of ground-level ozone and suspended particles in the air will be by lower than in 1990.The quantity of vegetation exposed to ozone concentrations which are higher than the allowed ones will be lower by 44% in 2010 in relation to the adequate parameter from However, in many European regions exposure of the population to effects of ground-level ozone and suspended particles will remain higher than the value recommended by World Health Organization. In countries of Benelux, northern Italy, Russia and Ukraine, previously considered health risks will remain higher than in other parts of Europe. It is expected that levels of air pollution with pollutants which are the subject of this Protocol will increase. As there is a great potential for cost-effective implementation of measures for abatement of considered pollutants emissions in Eastern European countries, at present, activities are being implemented on development of adequate legislation in counties such as Russia and Ukraine. Emissions reduction in maritime transport and ambitious objectives in reduction gasses with greenhouse effect and climate changes prevention offer additional possibilities for air pollution reduction in EU with relatively low overall expenses. Additional problems to be considered relate to negative influences of biomass and biodiesel combustion on air quality. Review activities related to Gothenburg Protocol started in December It is expected that the revised Protocol will define even lower emission limits for 2020.including the new emission limits for particulate matters emissions as well as to update the so called technical annexes of the Protocol and instructions following he Protocol. In addition to that, it is expected that the revised text will define target emission which will be targeted for 2050.

5 Negotiations on Protocol revisions will be held throughout 2009 and 2010, so a final version of the revised text of the Protocol would be available during OVERVIEW A D A ALYSIS OF THE PROTOCOL A D CURRE T RESULTS OF THE GOALS IMPLEME TATIO Since Gothenburg Protocol was adopted, knowledge and information relating to emissions of harmful matters have been significantly expanded, primarily from the aspect of identifying a wider range of emission sources, gathering more accurate statistic data and solving perceived differences related to estimated emission levels from certain sectors of different states. In the last 10 years, SO 2, NO x, volatile organic compounds (VOC) and particulate matters (PM) emissions have been significantly reduced. It is expected that the positive emission reduction trend will continue to grow primarily as a result of implementation of the current legislation defining the obligation of air emissions regulation. On the other hand, regarding the reduction of NH 3 emissions, only very modest results have been recorded. However, even with recorded improvements, current emissions of majority of harmful matters are still two to three times higher than the emission from the pre-industrial age. States which have signed or ratified the Gothenburg Protocol record a more significant emission reduction than countries which have not joined the Protocol, in which growth of overall emissions can be expected. Based on the meteorological center data founded as a part of European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) in 2004, overall SO 2 emissions in all signatory states at the geographical area covered by EMEP model were approximately 15 million tones. The given value represents a reduction of 65% in relation to the emission level from This significant reduction of overall emissions already represents an achievement of Protocol requirements in relation to the designated emission reduction for the period of However, about 10% of the states which ratified the Protocol must implement additional measures so as to bring their SO 2 emissions to accord with Protocol requirements and as well as with the appropriate emission limits designated for Overall NO x emissions in the period of were reduced by 30% to the level of 18 million tons. In this way, it is necessary to achieve a reduction of overall NO x emissions by 15% in order to bring them into accord with emission limits defined for One half of the states which ratified the Protocol have to additionally reduce their emissions in order to achieve compatibility with national limits defined for NH 3 emissions were 7 million tons in 2004, which represents a reduction of 22% in reference to the level from The mentioned reduction was very close to the targeted one which was defined by the Protocol for However, around 15% of states that ratified the Protocol up to 2004 have not reduced their emission to the level which would be sufficient for bringing them to accord with emission limits defined for NH 3. Overall emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) were about 15 million tons in 2004 which was 38% less in reference to emissions from 1990 but still by 2-6% above the emission limit defined by the Protocol for the period to As it was previously mentioned, ECE countries covered by the EMEP model have recorded a significant reduction in pollutants emission in the period from From the aspect of

6 sector emissions, highest reductions, relative as well as absolute ones, have been recorded in the electric energy production sector which has achieved a SO 2 emission reductions of up to 70% (or more than 16 million tons) and NO x emission reduction by almost 50% (or 2.8 million tons) in comparison with referent values. The greatest part of the mentioned reductions was achieved as a result of economic restructure of Central and Eastern Europe country economies in the period to follow 1990 which lead to a significantly less coal consumption electric energy production plants. In the EU countries implementation of harmful matters emissions control measurements at the end-of-pipe has led to significant results regarding emission reduction. In addition to that, SO 2 emissions from the industrial and residential sectors were reduced as a result of decreased consumption of coal as primary energy-generating product. Transport sector, in spite of an increased traffic volume, registered reduced NO x emission by 28% and a 66% reduction in volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions. NH 3 emissions form agricultural sector and volatile organic compounds emissions originating from solvents were reduced by 20-30% (Table 1) Table 1. Emission reduction in the period from per sector (in kt and percents in reference to 1990) (source: GAINS model) A detailed analysis of factors which led to a recorded reduction of SO 2 emissions in Europe, point to the fact that following the Gothenburg Protocol signing, approximately 1/3 of registered reductions was achieved as a result of displacing coal or oil with cleaner fuels while the remaining reduction was achieved through harmful matters emissions control measurements at end-of-pipe. Projections for the period to 2010, made through the GAINS model, indicate that, in spite of expected economic growth, reduction of all harmful matters emissions will still continue, primarily it being a result of structural changes in energy and agriculture sectors, as well as in the fields of legislation in pollution prevention and controlling pollutants emission into the air. (Figure 1)

7 Figure 1. Depiction of a significant reduction which can be achieved through implementation of existing regulations, except in the cases of ammonia and CO2 (source IIASA) Expenses Implementation of the Gothenburg Protocol provisions should enable a more economic emission reductions in signatory states in relation to the strategy of equal that is, balanced emission reduction which would be based on requests for equal reduction per capita or equal emission reductions in certain sectors of all European countries. However, the Gothenburg Protocol could offer an even more economic approach to achievement of necessary emission reductions. Overall expenses of emission control measurements implementation in 2010 were estimated to 70 billion EUR, including the estimated 7 billion EUR of variable costs anticipated for achieving additional Protocol requirements. Positive effects of Gothenburg Protocol implementation have been estimated to a value of billion EUR (considering the population s health improvement and effects estimated through a valorization of life expectancy reduction resulting from effects of considered emissions). The analysis conducted on the EU-27 territory has indicated that expenses of achievement of designated objectives can be lower if the following is taken into consideration: additional measures implemented in the maritime transport sector, possible emission reductions in non-eu countries, as well as implementation of additional activities directed towards reduction of gasses with greenhouse effect. Synergy with climate change policy Numerous analyses indicate that there is a strong connection between air pollution and climate change phenomena. Main sourced of air pollution and greenhouse effect gases are identical: fossil fuels combustion processes, transport and agriculture sectors. Certain measures of air pollution prevention are equally efficient for emission reduction of the gasses with greenhouse effect. Some measures (such as energy saving measures) influence reduction

8 of both types of emissions, while others reduce emission of gasses affecting air pollution, but at the same time cause the increase in emissions of gasses with greenhouse effect. For example, biomass usage for heating in households contributes CO 2 emission reduction, while on the other hand can cause increased NO x and particulate matter emissions. Climate change also affects the atmospheric transport and chemistry of the aerial processes through, for example, increases of temperature and reduction of air humidity. Climate change affect in that way the changes in relations between emission sources and recipients of the pollutants from air. Climate change also lead to changes in distribution of atmospheric precipitations which can lead to changes in critical loads and vegetation sensitivity to atmospheric pollution. Certain pollutants (such as sulphates) have the so called cooling effect, while others (such as ozone and grime) contribute to increase in the atmospheric temperature of the air. Climate change causes an increased grime transport to Arctic area which affects the Earth s reflexive factor (albedo). Air pollution can lead to changes in regional distribution of atmospheric precipitations. The influence of atmospheric pollution on ecosystems can also cause changes in the carbon circulation cycle: ozone impairments cause reduced carbon separation regarding the fact that higher deposition of nitrogenous components (in the systems with a limited presence of N) stimulates the input of carbon. With exception of the reduced energy consumption resulting from economy restructure in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, fossil fuels consumption and resulting CO 2 emission are continuously increasing. Meeting the Kyoto Protocol obligations is achieved through reduction or limitation of emissions in the new EU members, reduction of emissions of other gases with greenhouse effect and implementation of measures of CO2 emission reduction in the states which are not members of the Annex 1, which was made possible through mechanisms of joint implementation and clean development of the Kyoto Protocol. It should be mentioned that consumption and fuel type combusted directly affect the measures of emission reductions which have to be applied on waste matters treatment upon termination of production process in order to control SO 2, NO x, particulate matters and volatile organic compounds emission. Further researches have led to the extension of the existing mathematical models in order to take into account mutual interaction of measures implemented in order to control emissions of conventional pollutants and measures for prevention of GHG emissions. The new GAINS (Greenhouse Gas Air pollution Interactions and Synergies) model together with classical pollutants comprised by the RAINS model includes CO2, CH 4, N 2 O and fluorocarbons. In that way, the traditional RAINS model which considers pollutant gasses has become an integral part of the GAINS model, while the additional component within the GAINS model analyses the interaction of gasses which contribute the air pollution and gasses with greenhouse effect. Structural changes in energy, transport and agriculture sectors implemented in order to control emission of gasses with greenhouse effect, as additional positive effects have air pollution reduction. Combustion of smaller amounts of fuel directly affects on total SO2, NOx and particulate matters reduction which further results in less harmful influence of the mentioned gasses on human health and with a reduced acidification of ecosystems. A reduced CH 4 emission is directly connected to the less intensive formation of the ground-level ozone, and as a result of that its reduced influence on human health, vegetation and crops. In comparison with global effects of CO 2 emission reductions mentioned side-effects are mostly short-termed and of a local character.

9 Energy efficiency and energy management are two synergetic fields. Although there are adequate technological solutions, changes in energy consumers' habits also must be taken into consideration at definition of common air pollution reduction strategy and prevention of future climate change. Having in mind that it is very difficult to quantify the influence of consumers habits from the aspect of energy consumption, great number of changes in consumers behavior is still not integrated into the GAINS model. Considering the traditional methodology of expenses calculation, economic effects related to measures implementation such as switching to bicycle riding, wearing warmer clothes or consuming smaller quantities of meat can also be unfavorable although experience shows that the mentioned changes are result of one s own initiative but as the result of their promotion through inclusion of appropriate (economic) instruments. Trading with CO 2 emissions and implementation of other two flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol, such as joint implementation mechanism and clean development mechanism will additionally enable overflowing of positive effects of emission of greenhouse effects gasses emission reductions to other areas. It is recommended that each state conducts an analysis of overall expenses of the implementation of strategies for fighting against the climate change and air pollution for different variants of implementation of the emission trading schemes and to perform an appropriate optimization of the CO 2 which would be achieved through projects realized outside of the state borders. It should be mentioned that not all measures of climate change prevention will have positive effect on air pollution reduction. Furthermore, certain measures of climate change prevention can cause increased pollutants emission. Use of biomass as energy-generating product for generating heat and electric energy or as fuels in the transport sector can lead to increase in NO x and PM 2.5 emissions, not only as a direct consequence of biomass combustion but also as a result of additional emissions during production, transport and biomass processing. Depending on the type of the used biofuel significant effects on the life cycle of pollutants in the atmosphere. On the other hand, positive by-effects can be expected in the field of NH 3 emissions for example from the aspect of compost use in biogas production. Also, an additional analysis of radiation effects as a consequence of biofuel use is necessary. A significantly more intensive use of biomass will contribute the increase of land demand (agricultural and forest) which can lead to increased food price and deterioration of natural resources area. A change in land allocation can also lead to changes in the reflexive factor =, that is, Earth s albedo. Agriculture sector is a main source of anthropogenic emissions of NH 3, CH 4 and N 2 O. Certain activities performed on reduction of mentioned gases emission (such as changes in the cattle nourishment or reduced use of compost) can affect emission reduction for all three considered compounds. However, certain measures implemented in order to control NH 3 emission can lead to greenhouse effect gasses emissions increase (for example injecting compost and facilities for cattle with low emission characteristics in relation to NH 3 emissions lead to increase in N 2 O emissions while the covered suspension storages result in higher CH 4 emissions). Results of certain studies indicate the effect climate change have on the processes taking place in ecosystems, as well as on the long-term effect of the pollutants from the air. Chemical and biological influences on biochemical cycles are very complex and can lead to acidification and eutrophication due to deposition of sulphur and nitrogen components from the atmosphere. Climate change can also influence the retainment of nitrogen and organic acids extraction from soil, key processes which can lead to slower recovery from acidification

10 effects. Climate change affect physiological processes in plants and their development by influencing the reduced input of the so-called ozone flux. The excess of critical values in relation to negative influences on vegetation can, in the majority of European regions, in the period to come be reduced. As a result of reduced ozone input its concentration in the environment would increase which would then lead to increased radiation forcing. On the other hand, productivity losses caused by the ozone would continue so that, through ozone extraction would affect the cycle of carbon circulation. With the aim of achieving long-term goals of the Protocol, it is necessary to reconsider the possibility to change certain liabilities defined in the Protocol. A great potential for application of additional emission control measures has been observed, especially when taking into account the positive effects of measures applied to the emissions of greenhouse gases. New technologies, local and non-technical measures, integrated management of nitrogen emissions and reduction of emissions from maritime transport can provide additional economical reduction of emissions into the air. Figure 5 shows the possible improvement of the environmental situation as a result of the implementation of all feasible technical measures to reduce emissions of pollutants. It is necessary to note that in the estimates shown the potential contribution of measures reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, starting from reducing emissions from maritime transport and integrated management of emissions of nitrogen, is not taken into account.

11 Figure 5. Potential improvements of environment between 2000 and 2020 by existing regulations and maximal technically feasible reduction measures In order to enable an economical application of proposed measures, when revising the Protocol s requirements, it is necessary to take into account the relations between the application of planned measures and primary emissions of powder substances, transport of pollutants in the atmosphere, emissions from sea transport, management of nitrogen circulation cycle, potential synergic action of prevention measures of climate changes, and also negative effects that the measures for climate changes prevention can have on air pollution. The action plan prepared for East European countries, Caucasus and Central Asia (EECCA region) offers the possibility of knowledge and technology transfer aiming at measuring and modeling of air pollution in the said region, as well as support to the implementation of adequate plans and strategies for pollution reduction. In addition, for Balkan countries adequate financial funds have been provided to support the development of appropriate plans and implementation of accompanying activities, such as, e.g. bilateral consultations regarding

12 improvement of data accuracy utilized in GAINS model. In the meantime, meteorological center EMEP is implementing activities to enhance the geographic region encompassed by EMEP model, in order to enable the integration of information from EECCA region into the models used for pollution assessment. CO CLUSIO S 1. After the signing of the Gothenburg Protocol, a trend in reduction of emission of all pollutants has been observed. 2. In Europe from the 1980s, a trend in reduction of deposition of materials leading to acidification has been recorded, which has had positive effects on the chemical composition of soil and lake waters. However, deposition of nitrogen components from the atmosphere still remains a widespread problem in European ecosystems. Besides the reduced emission of ozone precursor, a clear trend in reduction of indicators showing the negative impact of ground-level ozone on the human health and ecosystems in Europe has not been observed yet. 3. Recent scientific findings indicate that exposure of European population to current levels of fine suspended particulate matters leads to significant shortening of life expectancy of the population. Secondary aerosols formed by precursor emissions of SO 2, NOx, volatile organic compounds (VOC) and NH 3 are a significant part of total suspended fine particulate matters PM2.5 present in ambient air. 4. Positive effects of measures and activities currently conducted within the realization of the goals of the Gothenburg Protocol exceed the cost of implementation of appropriate measures in order to implement the planned reduction of emissions of pollutants. However, the latest scientific findings indicate the fact that the measures implemented in the implementation of the Gothenburg Protocol yet lead to smaller improvements from the aspect of fulfilling the objectives of the Protocol in respect of the protection of people's health and natural ecosystems than initially thought. 5. In order to fully meet the objectives of the Gothenburg Protocol regarding the protection of human health and natural ecosystems it is necessary to implement additional measures to reduce emissions of pollutants. 6. Efficacy of the Gothenburg Protocol in achieving the goals will be greater if the greater number of countries decide to sign, i.e. ratify the Protocol. The objectives of the Protocol in terms of environmental protection (reduction of acidification, eutrophication and ground-level ozone) are in synergy with the objectives of reducing the impact of fine particle pollution on human health. Therefore, extending the area that includes the protocol, with the goal of inclusion of particle pollution problems, improves the efficiency of the implementation of strategies to prevent or reduce pollution. 7. In addition, efficiency of the application of additional measures in the Protocol must be considered in the context of fulfilling the objectives of other relevant strategies and plans, including the goals against climate change, security of energy supply, and sector objectives in the areas of transport and agriculture. 8. In addition to the available measures and principles of treating waste emissions by the end of the production process ( end-of-pipe" principle), non-technical and local pollution

13 prevention measures are becoming more significant, especially when the activities are conducted at the same time for fulfilling the goals of several strategies for solving different problems. International sea transportation sector will continue to represent an area with great potential for the application of economic measures for reducing emissions and preventing or reducing pollution. Other conclusions It is estimated that most of the objectives of the Gothenburg Protocol, in terms of reducing national emissions to the emission limits will be achieved. A large number of States Parties to the Protocol has already managed to reduce their emissions to levels below the defined limit values, which is mostly accomplished by fulfilling the requirements related to the accession to the European Union (EU), changes in the joint EU strategy for agricultural development or application of EU directives on emission sources, air quality, content of nitrate in underground water and the like. However, several of the signatory countries are facing serious problems in fulfilling their liabilities, particularly from the aspect of reducing its overall NOx emissions to the level defined by the Protocol. These problems are partly caused by improved inventory of base emissions, less efficiency of measures for regulation of emissions from the transport sector compared to the initially expected results and in some cases, insufficient implementation of the defined measures. When considering the need for implementation of additional measures to reduce emissions of pollutants and their efficiency, the following findings must be considered: Data and information about health effects caused by long-term exposure to impacts of air pollutants today are much detailed compared to the period of a few years ago. Studies conducted or published after 1999 enabled the quantification of reduced life expectancy of the population which comes as a result of exposure to impacts of fine suspended particulate matter in the air. In the analyses that served as the basis for the adoption of the Protocol in 1999, only ground-level ozone impact on human health in concentrations above 60 ppb was considered. However, recent research indicates the negative health effects occurring with the lower ground level ozone concentrations, which in order to protect human health requires the application of more strict measures regarding additional reduction of its formation. More detailed analysis of impact of deposition of harmful substances on natural ecosystems has indicated the higher sensitivity of ecosystems to the impact of substances that cause acidification and eutrophication as compared to earlier assumptions. Consideration of the environmental impact of ground-level ozone, based on the approach so-called ozone flux that gives a realistic biological description of the potential negative effects of ground-level ozone on vegetation, allows more accurate assessment of its harmful effects on crops, forest trees and natural vegetation. In Europe, awareness of the influence of other emission sources in the northern hemisphere on ground-level ozone is increasing. These sources can, in the case of unregulated emissions, reduce the positive effects of measures reducing emissions of pollutants in Europe. Improved inventory of emissions of anthropogenic origin indicates the existence of additional sources of emissions that were not considered in earlier estimates. The stated is especially important for reducing NOx emissions to the established emission limits. Achieved effect of application of certain measures to reduce and control emissions is less than initially expected.

14 Generally, the assumptions regarding the expected economic growth, conducted at the time of the adoption of the Gothenburg Protocol mostly proved to be correct, with the exception of certain countries of Eastern Europe. Notwithstanding the requirements of current legislation, long-term maintenance of the level of national emissions of pollutants below the prescribed limit values for 2010 will require continued application of current measures, and the introduction of additional activities on the prevention of pollution. A direct connection between the activities reducing emissions of greenhouse gases and emissions control problems of pollutants into the air has been observed. In some sectors, a significant reduction in emissions has been achieved compared to results achieved in other sectors. From the aspect of SO 2 emissions, the largest decrease was recorded in the case of emissions from large point sources, while in terms of NOx emissions and volatile organic compounds (VOC), emissions from the transport sector showed a most noticeable trend in decline. NH 3 emissions originating from the agricultural sector recorded a moderate downward trend. Contrary to this, emissions from international sea transport show more dynamic growth than initially expected. Projections for the future indicate that by the period of 2020, the emission of SO 2 and NOx from international sea transportation will exceed the total emissions of SO 2 and NOx from stationary sources. Numerous studies point to the fact that the costs of fulfilling the obligations under the Gothenburg Protocol be lower than initially expected. Technological development and the so-called global economy, i.e. increasing supply of various technological solutions on the market, can affect the reduction in real costs achieved (estimated after applying appropriate measures ie. ex post) and by 50% compared to initial projections (the exante). In addition, some measures that are being implemented as part of the realization of the objectives of other strategies and solving other problems (e.g., prevention of climate change, measures in agriculture, preservation of biodiversity, maintaining water quality, etc.) contribute to reducing the costs of prevention and control of air pollution. Application of non-technical measures and the implementation of structural changes in the reform of the economy also contribute to lowering the cost of control of air quality compared to the initial estimates made on the basis of the principle of treating waste emissions following the end of the production process (end-of-pipe "principle). Literature [1] National Action Plan (NAP), for implementation and ratification of the protocol on heavy metals, Gothenburg protocol and protocol on POPs to the Convention on long-term transboundary air pollution, Belgrade, [2] 1979 CONVENTION ON LONG-RANGE TRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION; [3] Baseline emission projections for the revision of the Gothenburg protocol up to 2020, Background paper for the 42nd Session of the Working Group on Strategies and Review of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution Geneva, September 8-10, 2008, CIAM Report 2/2008 [4] BIPRO, Identification, assessment and prioritisation of EU measures to reduce releases of unintentionally produced/released Persistent Organic Pollutants, REFERENCE:O /2005/419391/MAR/D4, FINAL REPORT, European Commission, Brussels, 2006; [5] ECE, Environmental performance reviews Republic of Serbia, Second Review, United Nations, New York and Geneva, 2007;

15 [6] ECE, Air Pollution Studies o. 15, Guidelines for estimating and reporting emission data under the convention on LRTAP, Prepared by the Convention s Task Force on Emission Inventories and Projections and the secretariat UN New York and Geneva, 2003; [7] ECE, Environmental performance reviews Republic of Serbia, Second Review, United ations, New York and Geneva, 2007; [8] ECE, Handbook for the 1979 Convention on long-range Transboundary air pollution And its protocols, New York and Geneva, 2004; [9] ECE, Strategies and policies for air pollution abatement 2006 Review, prepared under The Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution UN, New York and Geneva, 2007; [10] European Community (2001). DIRECTIVE 2001/81/EC OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 23 October 2001 on national emission ceilings for certain atmospheric pollutants. [11] Protocol on Pollutant Release and Transfer Registers ( [12] The 1999 Protocol to abate acidification, eutrophication and ground-level ozone to the 1979 Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution, UNECE