GAINS model Principle concepts and example applications for Europe and Asia

Transcription

1 GAINS model Principle concepts and example applications for Europe and Asia Z.Klimont et al. Mitigation of Air Pollutants and Greenhouse Gases (MAG)

2 How has pollution been reduced in Europe? 400% SO 2 emissions in Western Europe: A 1970 s perspective 350% 300% % to e tiv la re 200% P D G d a n 150% 2 S O 100% SO2 avoided through energy efficiency improvements changes in fuel structure (end- of- pipe) emission controls Actual SO2 Hypothetical GDP (3% growth/yr) Actual GDP (constant 2000 Euro) 50% 0%

3 How has pollution been reduced in Europe? 400% SO 2 emissions in Western Europe: % SO2 avoided through SO2 and GDP relative to % 250% 200% 150% Actual SO2 Hypothetical GDP (3% growth/yr) 100% 50% 0% Source: IIASA

4 How has pollution been reduced in Europe? Decoupling between GDP and SO 2 emissions in Western Europe SO2 and GDP relative to % 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% SO2 avoided through energy efficiency improvements changes in fuel structure (end- of- pipe) emission controls Actual SO2 50% 0% Hypothetical GDP (3% growth/yr) Source: IIASA

5 Air pollution policy processes in Europe Regional air quality policy process initiated by signature of the LRTAP Convention (1979) Change in approach: LRTAP SO 2 protocol (1994) - models were used for the first time Multi-pollutant/multi-effect approach introduced in Gothenburg Protocol (1999) and EU acidification strategy ( ) and applied in revised GP (2012) and EU NECD (2013) Lessons learned so far (policy-science perspective) Move towards regional policy triggered by e.g., destruction of common good Science has a role helping to separate policy and technical issues Building trust in science results takes time Robustness of results often more important than presentation of uncertainties Cost-effectiveness approach has been accepted but will be always confronted with equality/fairness of burdens Involving stakeholders from industry, NGOs essential

6 Despite the emission declines, significant air quality problems remain PM2.5: Human health, loss in stat. life expectancy Eutrophication: Ecosystems area with unsustainable nitrogen deposition Ground-level ozone: Health-risks (SOMO35) Acidification: Freshwater catchments with unsustainable acid deposition

7 Objectives and instruments of EU air quality policy Long-term objective of EU Environment Action Programme: Achieve levels of air quality that do not cause significant negative impacts on human health and the environment In practice: No-effect levels for health impacts from PM and O 3, critical loads for acidification and eutrophication Periodic reviews and revisions of the Thematic Strategies on Air Pollution establish concrete interim targets, taking into account costs and feasibility

8 The EU has established a comprehensive legisla6ve framework for PM control along three lines Ambient Air Quality Standards (to be achieved everywhere): PM10 (24 hrs): 50 µg/m 3, 35 exceedances allowed PM10 (1 year): 50 µg/m 3 PM2.5 (1 year): 25 µg/m 3 (Target value as of 2010, binding limit value as of 2015) Source- specific emission standards for TSP, SO 2, NO x, VOC, for sta6onary and mobile sources Na6onal emission ceilings for PM2.5, SO 2, NO x, VOC, NH 3 The European Commission ini6ates court cases for non- compliance

9 Policy response in Europe: Air quality management as a multi-pollutant/multi-effect task PM (BC, OC) SO 2 NO x VOC NH 3 Health impacts: PM (Loss in life expectancy) O 3 (Premature mortality) Vegetation damage: O 3 (AOT40/fluxes) Acidification (Excess of critical loads) Eutrophication (Excess of critical loads)

10 Na6onal emission ceilings are established based on the cost- effec6veness principle with the GAINS model (Greenhouse gas Air pollu0on INterac0ons and Synergies) IIASA s GAINS optimization model PM SO 2 NH 3 NO x VOC Health Eutrophication Acidification Ozone Policy targets on air quality

11 The GAINS cost-effectiveness approach as an iterative policy process Energy/agricultural projections Driving forces Emission control options Emissions Costs OPTIMIZATION Atmospheric dispersion Health and environmental impacts Environmental targets

12 The cost-effectiveness approach Models help to separate policy and technical issues: Decision makers Decide about Ambition level (environmental targets) Level of acceptable risk Willingness to pay Models Identify cost-effective and robust measures: Balance controls over different countries, sectors and pollutants Regional differences in Europe Side-effects of present policies Maximize synergies with other air quality problems Search for robust strategies

13 Scope for further environmental improvements in the UNECE area: 4(6) effects 100% Expected achievements of current policy; relative to 2000 Impact indicator in 2020 relative to % 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Closing the gap Scope 0% YOLLs O3 deaths Acidification, forest area Acidification, AAE all ecosystems Eutrophication, ecosystems area Eutrophication, AAE all ecosystems PRIMES MTFR Scope for measures National MTFR Scope for measures

14 Four options for target setting Where do we want to go by 2020? Environmental targets for a cost-effectiveness optimization must be achievable in all countries, should result in internationally balanced costs and benefits. Four options have been analysed with GAINS: 1. Uniform absolute targets ( caps ) on environmental quality (in terms of impact indicators) 2. Equal relative change ( gap closure ) in impact indicators compared to a base year 3. Equal portions of the possible improvements in each country (equal gap closure between Baseline and Maximum Technically Feasible Reduction) 4. Europe-wide improvements at least cost

15 Costs for reducing health impacts from fine PM Analysis for the EU Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) programme CASE C Annual Cost Millions CASE A CASE B % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Health improvement (Change between baseline and maximum measures)

16 Cost-effective strategies put different burdens on sectors 5 4 Emission control costs for achieving the air quality targets of the EU Thema6c Strategy Billion /yr Without Euro-VI With Euro-VI Without Euro-VI With Euro-VI National energy projections (+3% CO2) Climate policy scenario (-20% CO2) Power sector Industry Domestic Transport Agriculture

17 Cost-effective strategies put different burdens on countries Additional air pollution control costs as a percentage of GDP in 2020 (example for different ambition targets, GP review)

18 Different countries tackle different pollutants with different technologies Additional measures for SO 2 to achieve the MID case 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% UKRA_WHOL LITH_WHOL RUSS_EURO POLA_WHOL BELA_WHOL SPAI_WHOL BELG_WHOL ESTO_WHOL LATV_WHOL UNKI_WHOL HUNG_WHOL IREL_WHOL CROA_WHOL FINL_WHOL CZRE_WHOL SEMO_WHOL FRAN_WHOL MOLD_WHOL BOHE_WHOL PORT_WHOL GERM_WHOL GREE_WHOL DENM_WHOL ROMA_WHOL ALBA_WHOL NETH_WHOL SLOV_WHOL SWIT_WHOL MACE_WHOL SKRE_WHOL ITAL_WHOL AUST_WHOL BULG_WHOL NORW_WHOL SWED_WHOL CYPR_WHOL LUXE_WHOL MALT_WHOL UNECE EU27 noneu SO2 reduction in MID relative to baseline OTHER_SO2 ConComb Waste_burning_Agr Paper_Pulp IndOC Proc_Other DOM Refineries PP_Oil- fired PP_Coal- fired SO 2 Reduction rel. BL 20%- 46% Reduction rel. BL > 10% Reduction rel. BL > 2% Reduction rel. BL < 2%

19 GAINS framework including co-benefits on long and near-term climate mitigation PM (BC, OC) SO 2 NO x VOC NH 3 CO CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O HFCs PFCs SF 6 Health impacts: PM (Loss in life expectancy) O 3 (Premature mortality) Vegetation damage: O 3 (AOT40/fluxes) Acidification (Excess of critical loads) Eutrophication (Excess of critical loads) Climate impacts: Long-term (GWP100) Near-term forcing (in Europe and global mean forcing) Black carbon deposition to the arctic ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

20 Strong interactions between air pollution and climate policies Costs to meet the EU air quality and climate targets (EU-27, 2020) Billion /yr bn/yr 25 0 Business as usual National energy projections (+3% CO2 in National energy projections 2020) (+3% CO 2 in 2020) PRIMES energy scenario Illustrative projections with climate meeting measures the EU climate target (-20% (-20% CO CO2 in 2020) 2 in 2020) Indicative costs for changes in the energy system to meet climate and energy targets Costs for further measures to achieve the targets of the EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution Costs for implementing current air pollution legislation Source: IIASA GAINS

21 GAINS bas been also implemented for China, indicating significant co-benefits of cost-effective air pollution controls on GHG emissions Emission control costs for reducing PM health impacts in China by 50% Costs for reducing health impacts from air pollution by 50% (bn in 2030) GAINS optimization with GAINS air pollution optimization end-of-pipe with air pollution measures end-of-pipe only measures only -8% CO2 Same health impacts, GAINS optimization including greenhouse gas mitigation measures GHG measures: Energy efficiency, households Energy efficiency, industry Co-generation of heat and power Electricity savings, renewable Air pollution controls: energy Air Households, pollution controls: PM control Large Plants, PM controls Households, Large Plants, PM NOx control controls Large Plants, SO2 controls Large Plants, PM controls Large Plants, NOx controls Large Plants, SO2 controls

22 Conclusions Europe has successfully reduced air pollutant emissions, through a combination of energy efficiency measures, changes in fuel consumption patterns, and end-of-pipe emission control measures. EU air quality policy employs a three-pronged approach: Ambient air quality limit values, national emission ceilings, and source-specific emission limit values. To identify cost-effective packages of measures, the EU has applied a multi-pollutant/multi-effect approach that balances measures across pollutants/countries/sectors. There are potentially large co-benefits with greenhouse gas mitigation policies.

23 More details and background available from: General GAINS policy portal: MitigationofAirPollutionandGreenhousegases/Overview.en.html GAINS model: UNECE Gothenburg Protocol revision work Review of the EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (TSAP); towards revision of National Emission Ceiling Directive (NECD)