Climate Smart Urban Development in Chinese Megacities

Transcription

1 Climate Smart Urban Development in Chinese Megacities Qi He 1, Andy Gouldson 2, Andrew Sudmant 2, Dabo Guan 3, Qiang Zhang 1, Xujia Jiang 1, Sarah Colenbrander 3, Joel Millward-Hopkins 2, Han Ji 1, Bo Zheng 1 1 Tsinghua University, China 2 University of Leeds, UK 3 University of East Anglia, UK 4 International Institute for Environment and Development, UK a.gouldson@leeds.ac.uk

2 Chinese Cities and Carbon In 2015, 56% of China s population lived and more than 60% of China s GDP was generated in urban areas By 2030, Chinese cities will be home to more than 70% of the population and will generate 75% of GDP Urban dwellers emit 40% more than those who live in rural areas when Scope 1 and 2 emissions are considered and more still when Scope 3 emissions are considered Chinese policymakers have begun to focus on climate change: 42 low-carbon city and province initiatives have been adopted, including emissions targets for major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzen A carbon-trading program covering Beijing, Chongqing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Tianjin has been operating since 2014

3 Carbon Lock-in in Chinese Megacities What are the economic opportunities for low carbon development in Chinese megacities? Alternatively, what is the extent of carbon lock-in in Chinese megacities?

4 The Climate Smart Cities Programme

5 Methods An assessment of recent trends in the city s energy use, energy expenditure and GHG emissions, and projection of these trends (including for different sectors) over the next years (the business as usual (BAU) baselines); An evaluation of the marginal costs, direct benefits and carbon saving potential of a wide range of the low-carbon measures that could be adopted in different sectors in the city in the next decade (with 5% real interest rate); and An aggregation of the findings and the presentation of the economic case for investment in these options at scale in different sectors in the city over the next years. All based on a form of iterated participatory appraisal Geographical, temporal, technical and economic boundaries

6 Beijing Beijing has a population of 21 million people and is expected to grow to 30 million by 2030 To release pressure on the environment, resources and land, local government has been redistributing residents from the city center to the periphery, and relocating industries to neighboring cities From 2000 to 2014, emissions rose by 64%, and they are forecast to rise by 40% again under a business as usual scenario.

7 Beijing Scope for Lower Carbon Development 160% 140% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 111% 100% 89% Baseline Cost effective - including cost effective electricity grid measures Cost neutral - including cost effective electricity grid measures Technical potential - including cost effective electricity grid measures 20% 0%

8 Beijing Economics of Lower Carbon Development In the cost-effective scenario, investment of $35 billion (9% of urban GDP), with net economic benefits of $59 billion and a 8 year payback, would see 2030 BAU emissions fall by 21%, but they would still be 11% higher than in In the cost neutral scenario, investment of $137 billion of investment (37% of city GDP) would have a 28 year payback, would see 2030 BAU emissions fall by 28%, remaining equal to 2014 levels. Under the technical potential scenario, $326 billion of investment (88% of city GDP) with a payback period of 218 years, would see 2030 BAU emissions fall by 36% and 11% relative to 2014.

9 Shanghai Shanghai has a population of 24 million people, by 2030 the population is expected to be 30 million Shanghai is relatively wealthy and is more advanced in the shift from a manufacturing to service based economy. From 2000 to 2014, emissions rose by 81%, and from 2014 to 2030 they are forecast to rise by 59% under a business as usual scenario.

10 Shanghai Scope for Lower Carbon Development 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 159% 135% 121% 108% Baseline Cost effective - including cost effective electricity grid measures Cost neutral - including cost effective electricity grid measures Technical potential - including cost effective electricity grid measures

11 Shanghai Economics of Lower Carbon Development In the cost-effective scenario, investment of $59 billion (14% of urban GDP), with net economic benefits of $106 billion and a 6 year payback, would see 2030 BAU emissions fall by 15% but they would still be 35% higher than in In the cost neutral scenario, investment of $257 billion of investment (64% of city GDP) would have a 18 year payback, would see 2030 BAU emissions fall by 24%, but they would still be 21% higher than in Under the technical potential scenario, $715 billion of investment (178% of city GDP) with a payback period of 46 years, would see 2030 BAU emissions fall by 32% but be 8% higher than 2014.

12 Tianjin Tianjin has grown from 10 to 15 million since 2000, and is expected to grow to 21 million by It is a "National Central" city and is an area of high industrial concentration within the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolis. From 2000 to 2014, emissions rose by 197%, and from 2014 to 2030 they are forecast to rise by a further 119% under a business as usual scenario.

13 Tianjin Scope for Lower Carbon Development 250% 200% 219% Baseline 150% 167% 159% Cost effective - including cost effective electricity grid measures 100% 50% 0% 76% Cost neutral - including cost effective electricity grid measures Technical potential - including cost effective electricity grid measures

14 Tianjin Economics of Lower Carbon Development In the cost-effective scenario, investment of $71 billion (27% of urban GDP), with net economic benefits of $112 billion and a 6 year payback, would see 2030 BAU emissions fall by 23%, but they would still be 67% higher than in In the cost neutral scenario, investment of $333 billion of investment (125% of city GDP) would have a 18 year payback, would see 2030 BAU emissions fall by 28%, but they would still be 59% higher than in Under the technical potential scenario, $618 billion of investment (233% of city GDP) with a payback period of 23 years, would see 2030 BAU emissions fall by 65% and by 24% relative to 2014.

15 Conclusions There are certainly opportunities for low carbon development in established but still growing Chinese mega-cities Many of these opportunities are economic, but financing them is challenging and the costs are likely to escalate rapidly. A significant degree of carbon lock-in is then apparent current designs will generate substantial emissions for decades to come. On-going growth (albeit lower carbon growth) will quickly overwhelm carbon savings from significant investments. What does this mean for China s goal to peak emissions by 2030, and for the design of future cities in China?