Guanghua Wan Principal Economist

Transcription

1 Guanghua Wan Principal Economist

2 Main Messages Asia s urbanization is unprecedented & unique in several aspects leading to enormous challenges possibly including environmental degradation But urbanization can help! To ensure a win win scenario, green urbanization policies shall exploit unique features of Asia s urbanization and late comer s advantage

3 Asia s urbanization is unprecedented 1 billion Source: ADB estimates using UN(2012).

4 Unique feature 1: very fast speed 10% 210 years 49% 105 years 9% 51% 150 years 12% 51% 11% 95 years 51% 90 years 12% 50% 12% 65 years 54% 60 years 10% 52% 10% 55 years 51% 11% 61 years 51% Source: ADB estimates using Bairoch (2008) and UN(2012).

5 Unique feature 2: highest densities in the world Asia & the Pacific (17/25) Africa Europe Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa Source:

6 Unique feature 3: many megacities Megacities, 2010 ASIA: 12/23 Note: The circles indicate population sizes ranging from (10 million) to (39 million). The circles do not reflect the physical extents of the cities and any overlap between them merely reflects their relative population sizes and not any official acceptance or endorsement of any geographical sovereignty. Source: UN (2012).

7 Unique feature 4: low starting base Northern America Northern America 67% 63% Europe Europe 52% WORLD WORLD 43% Latin Latin America America & Caribbean Caribbean ASIA & PACIFIC ASIA & PACIFIC Africa Africa Source: ADB estimates using Bairoch (2008) and UN(2012).

8 Unique feature 5: the largest cities are likely to grow bigger Ratio of Population in Largest Cities over Urban Population (%) Source: ADB estimates using UN(2012).

9 thus more and bigger megacities are emerging Megacities, 2025 ASIA: 21/37 Note: The circles indicate population sizes ranging from (10 million) to (39 million). The circles do not reflect the physical extents of the cities and any overlap between them merely reflects their relative population sizes and not any official acceptance or endorsement of any geographical sovereignty. Source: UN (2012).

10 Unprecedented urbanization poses enormous challenges already serious Growing inequalities Rising urban crimes Expansion of slums Above all, environmental degradation Pollution Vulnerability to flooding

11 67% of Asian (vs. 11% Non Asian) cities fail to meet EU air quality standard EU standard Source: WHO (2012).

12 CO 2 emissions grow fast in Asia Source: ADB estimates using World Bank (2012).

13 and three of the top five CO 2 emitting economies are in Asia.

14 Environment may degrade further with growth Asia s Environmental Kuznets Curve CO2 emissions (tons/capita) =$6,107 Peak=$40, Source: ADB estimates using World Bank (2012). GDP per capita (in 2005 PPP)

15 CO 2 emissions may triple under the business as usual scenario Source: ADB estimates using World Bank (2012).

16 Asia is more vulnerable to coastal flooding Risk of Coastal Flooding by Region, 2000 Urban population at Risk (million) Share of Population at Risk (%) Urban Area at Risk ('000 km 2 ) Share of Area at Risk (%) Africa Asia and Pacific Latin America Europe Source: ADB estimates based on McGranahan et al

17 Coastal flooding is clustered in PRC, South & Southeast Asia: Top 15 cities, 2000 Country City Population at risk (%) Population at risk ('000) City Area at risk (km 2 ) Area at risk (%) PRC Tianjin , PRC Panjin , Bangladesh Khulna , PRC Nantong , PRC Changzhou , PRC Jiangyin , PRC Suzhou , Indonesia Palembang , Thailand Bangkok , PRC Wuxi , PRC Shanghai , India Kolkata , PRC Ningbo , Indonesia Ujung Pandang , Viet Nam Ho Chi Minh , Source: Balk and Montgomery (2012).

18 Inland flooding is also serious: Top 15 cities, 2000 Country City Population at risk (%) Population at risk ('000) City Area at risk (km 2 ) Area at risk (%) Cambodia Phnom Penh PRC Wuhan Indonesia Palembang India Patna Bangladesh Dhaka PRC Nanjing Vietnam Ho Chi Minh PRC Tianjin PRC Huangshi PRC Huainan PRC Wuhu Thailand Bangkok PRC Bangbu India Guwahati India Allahabad Source: Balk and Montgomery (2012).

19 Vulnerability will rise with urbanization Source: Balk and Montgomery (2012).

20 Unique features of Asian urbanization make challenges more serious... Low level = a long way to go Fast speed = little time to adjust or learn More & bigger megacities = hard to manage More slums = higher vulnerability

21 But, urban agglomeration can help Service sector pollutes less Manufacturers relocate Efficient provision of infrastructure and services Better quality of life Innovation and higher labor productivity Nurture property owners and middle clss And...

22 The growth/composition/technical impacts of urbanization on environment The growth impact may be negative The composition effect is positive Technical effect is also positive Most importantly, Asia as a late comer can leapfrog R&D and technology and for adopting regulations timely

23 Environment Urbanization relation has improved over time Environment Urbanization Curves PM10 Level (ug/m3) PM s 1990s CO2 em issions (m t/capita) CO s 2000s Level of Urbanization (%) Level of Urbanization (%) Source: ADB estimates.

24 Green urbanization can help shift the curves further Unique patterns of urbanization lead to megacities with satellite cities: ToD, BRT, green/compact/eco cities concepts Exploit late comer advantage: import or R&D, smart grid, circular economy, clean energy,. Timely introduction of regulations, and better financing and transparency: pollution/emission pricing, carbon tax or cap & trade, reduce subsidies, increased block tariffs,

25 Conclusions It is counter productive to contain urbanization, even for environmental concerns But, urbanization must be steered into a green path that exploits own unique features Asia can achieve green urbanization!

26 Thank You