Fundamentals and Comparisons. Panos D. Prevedouros, PhD Professor of Transportation Department of Civil Engineering

Transcription

1 TRANSPORTATION & ENERGY Fundamentals and Comparisons Panos D. Prevedouros, PhD Professor of Transportation Department of Civil Engineering Presented at Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), April 25, 2012

2 O U T L I N E Change is the Only Constant Transportation is Everywhere Transportation ti and Energy Summary

3 CHANGE IS THE ONLY CONSTANT

4 Population Aging

5 Population Aging

6 Planning the First 100 Million Mega c city

7 G D P

8

9 The Next Ten Trillion Dollars = BRIC + J + US

10 TRANSPORTATION S EVERYWHERE!

11 The relationships between transportation and the economy are very complex and poorly understood. Transportation is a massive enterprise with substantial direct and indirect effects on economic productivityand economic growth. Transportation industries the provision of transportation services, the manufacture of vehicles, and the construction of infrastructure are major economic activities in themselves Transportation is an enabler of economic activity and a facilitator of international trade. Key Transportation Indicators, National Research Council, USA, 2002

12 MEANS TO OVERCOME DISTANCE FOR Commuters Goods Military Services Tourism Business Life style takes you to: Shopping Center Restaurant Beach Doctor Amusement Park

13 Roads Bridges Tunnels Railways INFRASTRUCTURE Airports, ATC Harbors Construction Machines and Equipment Depots Hangars Yards Intermodal Links

14 VEHICLES Bicycles, mopeds, motorcycles, 3 wheelers Cars, vans, pickups, other light duty vehicles Buses, trucks, other heavy duty vehicles Light, heavy, intercity and high speed trains Aircraft; Marine Vessels; Specialized vehicles

15 PEOPLE Logistics staff Administrators, i t managers, investors Drivers, pilots, captains, operators, conductors, police Engineers, designers, foremen and construction crews Maintenance and repair staff Technology development, R&D, University staff Politicians and political appointees People in mitigation of trans. problems Noise Pollution Crashes Regulations Disputes

16 ENERGY & FUELS Fuels: civilian or military use, export Electric power: civilian or military use, export Refineries Power plants Mines, oil platforms, exploration (e.g., fracking)

17 MATERIALS Aggregate Cement Steel, metals, alloys Glass Water Lubricants Asphalt Cemex is the world's third biggest cement maker. It comes from Mexico, it is 105 years old, it employs 26,000 people, and its 2004 turnover was $8 Billion.

18 SECURITY TSA, Police Terrorism Warning Systems Disaster Resilience Disaster Recovery

19 SPORTS Marathons and bike races or roadways Car, canoe, boat, sailboat and airplane races Monaco, Las Vegas, etc. on street Grand Prix Raceway development and events

20 Worldwide, an estimated 1.2 million people are killed in road crashes each year and 50 million are injured. (WHO, 2010) TRAUMA CENTERS Treat victims of crashes Other victims in transportation escalators, elevators, sidewalks Victims of processes related to transportation from ore extraction to make rails or bridges to sports injuries i

21 Transportation may be ~ 1 / 3 of an economy About 8% of U.S. labor has a direct transp. job: Truck, bus or taxi driver, pilot, etc.

22 China and South Korea Policy: Exports

23 Transportation Outlook? ENERGY

24 TRANSPORTATION AND ENERGY

25 R = (3B + T) E R = Requirements of healthy humans in an orderly and peaceful environment B = Basics: Food, Water, Shelter T = Transportation E = Energy sets the pace for B and T (Law and Order, Medicine/Health Care, Defense, Communications, Recreation)

26 Sustainability Blocks FOOD WATER SHELTER TRANS PORT INFRASTRUCTURE ATION P O W E R (HP, KW, ) MATERIALS FUELS, ENERGY TECHNOLOGY LAWS, POLICIES, RULES, FEES, TAXES, TARIFFS

27 MIT Professor Dennis Meadows: In 1998 we had the dot com bubble bust. In 2008 we had the housing bubble bust. Both proved our primitive understanding of bubbles. We now form a new bubble in population, and in material and energy consumption. In 1972, a team of experts from MIT presented a groundbreaking report called The Limits to Growth. In 2012 Australian physicist and sustainability analyst Graham Turner updated it with data from 1970 to 2000

28 Demand for energy: 2x in 40 years

29 Clean energy is growing but each one has its own set of problems (especially these two)

30 Dependence on fossil fuels will continue

31 Reserves are big so is the pressure to not use them

32 EV s and turbines depend or rare earth

33 EV: Big news. Where is the demand? Did CAFE and the cost of renewables kill it?

34 Some changes are obvious, but their impact is modest.

35 For Energy and Transportation, the old world is about incremental change. New World holds promise for the next leap forward.

36 Perhaps the next wave is about Power Power Revolution Robotics Genetics Schumpeter: Kondratiev wave, K wave

37 Can BRIC reach 1 st world living standards?

38 Environmentalists are fiddling while Rome burns, says Vinod Khosla, founder of Khosla Ventures, a Silicon Valley venture capital firm. Environmentalists get in the way with silly stuff like asking people to walk more, drive less. That is an increment of 1 2% change. We need 1,000% change if billions of people in China and India are to enjoy a Western, energy rich lifestyle. Forget today s green technologies like electric cars, wind turbines, solar cells and smart grids. None meets what Khosla calls the Chindia price the price at which people in China and India will buy them without a subsidy. Everything s a toy until it reaches that point. (Mar. 10, 2011) Vinod Koslasays No! An energy break through is necessary.

39 Transportation Economy Energy Transportation analysis has been ignoring the energy dependency d for too long Transportation with great risk for changing Good Life to Economy Energy Great Mess What Can We Do About It?

40 Energy and LCA Life Cycle Models Cradle to Grave Well to Pump Vehicle Cycle Fuel Cycle

41 Urban Mode Sustainability Scores Sustainability Dimensions ICEV HEV FCV EV PHEV GPT GSUV DB BRT CS CS Camry Prius Clarity Leaf Volt F 150 Explorer New flyer New flyer Camry Prius Environment Technology Energy Economy Users Overall Sustainability Index 40.1% 48.8% 50.6% 46.8% 48.5% 23.4% 41.2% 51.9% 63.0% 66.9% 69.3% Ranking

42 Regional Sustainability Scores Environment Users Technology Chicago Atlanta Optimus Economy Energy

43 Thank You Panos D. Prevedouros, PhD Professor of Transportation Department of Civil Engineering