Reducing Inequality in a Sustainable World: Urban Development and Transportation

Transcription

1 Reducing Inequality in a Sustainable World: Urban Development and Transportation Elizabeth Deakin Professor of City and Regional Planning and Urban Design UC Berkeley March 5, 2015

2 Outline of Talk The challenges of urban and peri-urban development and transportation, especially in developing countries Transportation examples of issues that arise Possible ways forward or at least what I can cover in min.!

3 The Challenges of Urban Development The majority of the world s population is now urban. The share is growing and will reach ~ 60% or more by 2025 Metropolitan area growth is affecting nature, the built environment, and society in profound ways creating both problems and opportunities Needed: effective strategies to improve urbanization processes ad social, economic, and environmental outcomes that account for on-the-ground realities Challenge: the gap between the elites and everybody else

4 Developing Countries: Hotspots for Urban Growth Growth rate is slowing; still, ~98% of urban population growth in the next 30 years will occur in cities of developing countries. urban population of these countries: 2.5 billion 2009, 5.2 billion in 4 children born today will live in a city in a developing country Global Population Estimates and Projections (Millions of People) Source: United Nations World Urbanization Prospects

5 Factors Driving Metropolitan Growth and Expansion Natural increase, longer lives Migration, immigration due to better conditions in metro areas: Employment opportunities, higher incomes Access to education, health care, other services Displacement and flight from conflict, natural disasters, crises Government policies redevelopment of center, annexation of fringe the specifics are diverse (push and pull)

6 Iconic Urbanization: Does Everyone Want to be New York, Paris, Silicon Valley?

7 Varieties of Development: India

8 Varieties of Development: China

9 Urban growth - India

10 (2) Urban DEVELOMENTS Growth- Mexico City 04/21/2003

11 Consequences of Urbanization Many can climb out of poverty, enjoy a higher standard of living BUT Benefits are not evenly shared AND Haphazard growth; congestion, pollution create difficult living conditions

12 Concerns about Current Growth Patterns Vulnerability of a portion of the urban population to economic, social, environmental harms Public health risks due to limited access to clean water, sanitation, medical services and exposure to pollutants, safety and security hazards Urban/rural conflicts sometimes leading to displacement, sometimes to violence Institutional capacity for serving new growth areas Rights and voice of new urban residents Impact on environmentally sensitive lands Loss of forests, environmental diversity Loss of agricultural lands, food vulnerability Dependence on motor vehicles in emerging urban structure, immobility for those w/o vehicle access Sprawl difficulties providing urban services Inadequate infrastructure and services Pollution and GHG emissions increases

13 Challenges for Urban Decision-Makers Shelter quality, security of tenure, affordability Infrastructure availability, quality, reliability of water, sanitation, transportation, power, telecommunications Services access to education, health, welfare services Public safety, security, health from natural and manmade disasters, crime, disease Democracy and participation status and rights of newcomers Growing energy demand costs and environmental issues Pollution air, water, solid waste Traffic congestion and traffic safety, especially with rapid motorization Finance Access to funding to make things happen - government and entrepreneurs Institutions: capacity of government, private sector, or a combination to address these issues

14 Peri-Urban Development as a Special Challenge Locus of growth often beyond city borders, reach of urban service districts Context varies widely, from state-led relocations to developer-driven speculative development to informal or illegal development May occur in jurisdictions with very limited institutional capacity for urban issues Densities often low, development spotty, single use but not always Conflicts between agricultural and urban interests - can improve employment opportunities but also can threaten livelihoods Political conflicts and concerns about decisionmaking Problematic results: poor transport access, lacking or lackluster urban services such as water, sanitation

15 Informality Estimates that 40-60% of residents in LDC cities participate in informality in some way Range of circumstances for participants live in in informal housing but work in formal employment, or vice versa; may use informal transport or depend on informal laborers. Range of responses from government and other stakeholders, from efforts to formalize or provide support, to benign neglect, to hostility and conflict In most cases situation makes provision of infrastructure, public services more complicated BUT High potential for entrepreneurial creativity foothold for escaping poverty

16 Example: Transportation Challenges Congestion Pollution Deaths and injuries Unequal access Affordability Gender violence

17 Some common conditions

18 Impact of Land Use Policies: Block and Street Design (Through Streets) San Francisco, CA USA Jinan, Shandong Province, PRC Large blocks concentrate traffic on a few intersections, smaller ones manage it more easily

19 Conflicts

20 Designs for Cars: Jinan Shandong Province, PRC 1425 BIKES/ HOUR 474 VEH/ LANE/ HOUR 293 PEDS/ HOUR Observed Traffic Throughput Per Lane Per Hour

21 US cases too: Houston city center

22 Suburban trip end

23 Ways Forward Land use planning to balance jobs, housing, services reduce trip length and need for motorized modes Networks of high quality pedestrian and bicycle facilities Demand management (tolls, parking charges, auto restrictions) Cell phone apps for safety, security, possibly new services Bus rapid transit (or rail if conditions support it) but not by wiping out all informal services! Coordinated feeder services to BRT and rail terminals More attention to the pros and cons of motorbikes, ebikes Traffic management to reduce delays, minimize conflicts among modes Greater levels of participation in planning

24 Cautionary Notes Technological leaps forward may or may not match cultural and institutional conditions or be accessible to all (e.g. cellphone apps) Some of the interventions reach middle class and rising working class but not poor (e.g., dynamic ridesharing services) Some innovations take ongoing management that may not be easily accomplished by existing institutions (e.g. BRT, congestion pricing) Combined multi-dimensional strategies have high potential, but take longterm commitment (e.g., combined network of BRT with local feeders and better pedestrian access to transit) A focus on a single issue like GHG may miss the boat because other issues are more pressing to much of the populace need to find ways to reduce GHG that also address broader sustainability and equity concerns