International Insurance Conference 2017 in Karachi Climate Change & Emerging Risks
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1 International Insurance Conference 2017 in Karachi Climate Change & Emerging Risks Organized by Pakistan Insurance Institute 09 th to 11 th April 2017 Global Warming and the Changing Insurance Landscape Presenter : Dr Jagath Alwis BSc., FIII, FCII (Lon), FIoD (UK) Director (Technical)/Chief Technical Officer CEYLINCO GENERAL INSURANCE LTD Sri Lanka
2 AGENDA Climate change Green House effect Global Warming Impact on Global Warming Worldwide Weather related Natural Catastrophes Impact on the Asian Region Possible impact to the Insurance Industry Proposed Suggestions
3 Climate Change No subject was discussed than Climate Change during the last couple of decades Much scientific research was done and continuing Discussed among Scientists, Researchers, NGOs, Politicians, World Leaders and General Public Former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher was the first leader who openly spoke about climate change in her speech to the Royal society in 1989 Followed by drought in the USA and Canada in 1988/89 and the Hurricane Katarina much public awareness was created about climate change The focus was on the Green House effect
4 GREEN HOUSE EFFECT
5 GREEN HOUSE EFFECT
6 GREEN HOUSE EFFECT
7 GREEN HOUSE EFFECT
8 GREEN HOUSE EFFECT
9 GREEN HOUSE EFFECT
10 GREEN HOUSE EFFECT
11 GREEN HOUSE EFFECT
12 GREEN HOUSE EFFECT
13 GREEN HOUSE EFFECT
14 GREEN HOUSE EFFECT
15 GLOBAL WARMING The green house effect is a natural process that maintains the Earth s temperature at a level hospitable to life The cyclic process absorption emission absorption serves to maintain the heat near the surface In the absence of the green house effect, the Earth s average temperature of 14 C would be around -18 C Mars has an average temperature of C as its thin atmosphere supports virtually no green house effect But the world is un-doubtly warming and it has been projected that by 2100 the temperature will increase by 3.5 C due to enhanced greenhouse effect.
16 GLOBAL WARMING Global Surface Temperature Trends Source :
17 GLOBAL WARMING Trends in Ocean Heat Penetration Source :
18 GLOBAL WARMING Drastic Increase of greenhouse gases such as Carbon dioxide, Methane, Nitrous Oxide, Water vapors in the atmosphere, absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth and re-radiate the energy as heat back towards the Earth It is noticed that the level of Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is increasing over the years and accelerated since the industrial revolution in 1767 Source :
19 GLOBAL WARMING During the recent past, the CO 2 level is increasing due to ; Burning Natural Gases, Coal and Oil Certain Farming practices Change of land usage Deforestation Pollution by vehicles Pollution by factories Source :
20 GLOBAL WARMING Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide & Global Surface Temperature Trends Source :National Climate Assessment 2014
21 GLOBAL WARMING Historical Global CO2 Emissions Source: Atlas Forum
22 COUNTRIES RANKING WITH THE HIGHEST CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION 2015 Total Emissions Country Rank Country 2015 Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption of Energy (Million Metric Tons) 2015 Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption of Energy (Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide per Person) 1. China 10,641, United States 5,172, European Union 3,469, India 2,454, Russia 1,760, Japan 1,252, Germany 777, Inter. Shipping 642, Iran 633, South Korea 617, Canada 555, Saudi Arabia 505, Indonesia 502, Inter. Aviation 502, Brazil 486, Mexico 472, Australia 446, South Africa 417, United Kingdom 398, Source: Energy Information Agency Department of Energy USA
23 IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING Melting of Ice in the north pole Sea level will rise and it is estimated that it may increase by 50 cm by the year 2100 South Pacific Islands could be swamped by rising sea levels and storm surges Millions of people living in low lying coastal areas could be displaced by rising sea levels Glaciers are melting creating flash floods Increasing number of tropical storms, hurricanes, tornados etc., Unusual climatic conditions could create various other natural catastrophes Conditions favorable to spread various diseases will increase health risks
24 GLOBAL WARMING Mean Sea Level Rise Source :
25 GLOBAL WARMING Summer Arctic Sea Ice Decline Source : PEW Center, USA
26 Number of Hurricanes in North Atlantic, US Environment protection agency
27 Details of Tropical Storms in USA for the last 10 years Year Storms Hurricanes Deaths Damage (millions USD) > , , , , ,
28 IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING Increase in Tropical storms and hurricanes Hurricane is an intense tropical storm formed over warm tropical oceans during a period when the sea surface temperature is above 26.5 C Under these circumstances, evaporation from the ocean surface generates very high humidity in the atmosphere, which in turn generates thunder storms A tropical storm is when a system of powerful thunderstorms converges and begins to rotate in the atmosphere, forming a vortex known as a tropical depression Heat from the ocean surface is drawn up through the center of the vortex and released to the atmosphere as water vapor condenses to form rain around the perimeter of the vortex
29 IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING water vapor condenses to form rain around the perimeter of the vortex Energy from the ocean heat also generates high winds More the heat on the surface water, more the potential to generate heavy rain & high winds If the wind speed of a tropical storm exceeds 35 mph, a assigned name will be Since 1996 tropical storms frequency has increased by 40% and the Research has revealed that there is a positive co-relation between sea surface temperature and the frequency of hurricanes
30 IMAPCT OF GLOBAL WARMING
31 IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING
32 The 10 most expensive Natural Catastrophes for the global insurers (in US$ Mn) Year Region Event Overall loss Insured loss 2005 US, Mexico Hurricane Katrina , Japan Earthquake, tsunami , US, Canada Hurricane Sandy , US, Bahamas Hurricane Andrew , US Northridge earthquake , US, Mexico Hurricane lke , New Zealand Earthquake, aftershocks , US, Venezuela Hurricane Ivan , Thailand Monsoon rains, floods , USA, Mexico Hurricane Wilma Source : Swiss Re, Sigma 1/2016 (FAQ)
33 The 10 most costly global weather related Insurance losses in 2016 Insured Loss (in US$ ) Victims Date (start) Event Country 5.5 B Apr. Earthquake Japan 5.0 B th Sep. to 10 th Oct HU Matthew (hurricane) US, Caribbean 3.4 B 20 May/June Floods, severe Cyclone, Storms Western/Central Europe 3.0 B 13 August Floods United States 2.8 B - May Wildfire Canada 750 M 475 Summer Floods China 750 M - Yearlong Drought India 200 M - Yearlong Drought China 200 M 289 July Floods China 100 M th August Earthquake Italy Source: Swiss Re Economic Research and Consulting
34 Climate Risk Index for 2015 : The most affected countries Ranking 2015 (2014) Country CRI score Death toll Deaths per 100,000 inhabitants Absolute losses (in million US$ ) Losses per unit GDP in % 1 (23 Mozambique (138) Dominica (60) Malawi (10) India (29) Vanuatu (94) Myanmar (138) Bahamas (118) Ghana (34) Madagascar (62) Chile Source: Germanwatch Human Development Index
35 Natural Catastrophes in Asia in 2015 Month Country Event No of victims / amount of damage April Nepal, India, China, Earthquake 8960 dead, US$ 160 Bangladesh May India Heatwave 2248 dead, June Pakistan Heatwave 1270 dead June China Cruise ship hit by strong winds capsizes on Yangtze River October Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Guatemala Earthquake February Afghanistan Avalanches, landslides, floods, heavy snowfall November India Severe flash floods in Chennai 442 dead 399 dead 291 dead 289 dead, US$ 755 July India Moonsoon, floods 206 dead, Sauce: Swiss Re Economics Research & Consulting
36 Possible Impact to the Insurance Industry Impact on the net account will result in allocating more capital for affected classes specially when Risk Based Capital is inforced Impact on the Reinsurance Treaties - Stage 1 Additional statistics Eg., NatCat premium against claims Area-wise accumulation Impact on Commissions - Sliding scale commission No Profit Commissions on NatCat premium Minimum rates for NatCat Minimum deductibles for NatCat Restricted wordings for NatCat
37 Possible Impact to the Insurance Industry Impact on the Reinsurance Treaties - Stage 2 Event limits for NatCat under proportional treaties which will result in purchasing additional XL covers Loss Participation Clause Impact on Reinsurance Treaties - Stage 3 Excluding Natural Perils under proportional treaties Withdrawing from the market Cat Modelling
38 Possible Solutions and Suggestions to Protect the Environment Various initiatives have taken place towards developing a green world Green banking initiative is very interesting Can the Industry work towards green insurance? - Abstain underwriting obvious risks which are polluting the environment. - Abstain insuring motor vehicles which have high carbon dioxide emission levels. - Encourage discounts for environmental friendly projects - Reward energy saving initiatives. - Highlight environmental issues during risk inspections.
39 Possible Solutions and Suggestions to Protect the Environment Other possible actions - Also proposed in the UNEP Financial Initiative Principles for Sustainable Insurance (PSI) Company strategy - Priority to be given to environment al issues when developing company strategy. - Dialogue with the all stakeholders about the relevance of environmental issues in the Company strategy. - Integrate environmental issues into recruitment, training and employee engagement programmes
40 GREEN HOUSE EFFECT
41 Possible Solutions and Suggestions to Protect the Environment Risk Management and Underwriting - Establish a process to identify and assess environmental issues in the Portfolio underwriting and be aware of the possible environmental consequences of the company transactions. - Integrate environmental issues into risk management, underwriting and decision making Product Development - Develop products which reduce risks, have a positive impact on environmental issues and encourage better risk management - Develop & support awareness programmes on risk insurance and environmental issues
42 Possible Solutions and Suggestions to Protect the Environment Claims Management - Integrate environment al issues into repairs replacement and claims services - Due consideration about environment when disposing salvage - Give priority to environment issues for pre & post loss minimization Sales & Marketing - Educate Sales & Marketing staff on environmental issues relevant to products /services and integrate the key message about the environment in the marketing campaigns
43 Possible Solutions and Suggestions to Protect the Environment Sales & Marketing (Contd..) - Convey clearly to the clients cost/benefit as a result of protection of the environment. Investment Management - Integrate environmental issues into investment decision making Working with clients & suppliers - Create awareness about the company policy related to environmental issues - Dialogue with them on benefits of managing environmental issues - Share with them information and tools that may help them to manage environmental issues
44 Possible Solutions and Suggestions to Protect the Environment Working with clients & suppliers (contd..) - Integrate environmental issues into tender and selection process for suppliers - Encourage clients & suppliers to disclose environment issues in the reporting frame work. Government and Regulators - Support legal frame work that enable risk reduction and better management of environmental issues Other Stake Holders - Develop dialog with inter-governmental and non-governmental organizations - Dialog with the Industry Associations - Promote research and education programmes
45 Possible Solutions and Suggestions to Protect the Environment Other Stakeholders - Dialogue with media to promote public awareness of environmental issues - Promote protection of environment through good risk management - Assess, measure and monitor company s progress in managing environmental issue and regularly disclose to the public - Participating relevant disclosures or reporting frame work
46 Together we can change the World Thank You.
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