Beyond buildings to city infrastructures. Professor Mark Swilling Sustainability Institute, School of Public Leadership Stellenbosch University

Transcription

1 Beyond buildings to city infrastructures Professor Mark Swilling Sustainability Institute, School of Public Leadership Stellenbosch University

2 Core argument Context: global polycrisis Green buildings embedded within unsustainable urban infrastructures wont deliver sustainability Infrastructures can be reconfigured CT is a good example

3 Global economic crisis... March 2009 Institute for Economic Research on Innovation

4 (Krausman 2009)

5 (Mudd 2007) symptoms of the limits

6 Resource prices

7 Who consumes what? 1998 Human Development Report Richest 20% of the world: account for 86% of total consumption expenditure, the poorest 20% account for 1.3%

8

9 Decoupling: resource & impact

10 Decoupling: relative decoupling relative & absolute economic activity (GDP) absolute decoupling resource use TIME resource use

11 Three forced future scenarios for 2050 Global metabolic scales in billion tonnes Global metabolic rates in t/cap 160 Construction minerals Ores and industrial minerals Fossil fuels Biomass Baseline 2000 Freeze & catching up Factor 2 & catching up Freeze global DMC Baseline 2000 Freeze & catching up Factor 2 & catching up Freeze global DMC Fischer-Kowalski UNEP Nov

12 Footprinting Materials: 6t/c CO 2 : 2.2 t/cap Materials: 8t/c CO 2 : 4.5 t/cap

13

14 As leaders of the world s major economies, we are working for a resilient, sustainable and green economy. G20 Pittsburgh Sept 2009 How do we reconcile faster growth with sustainable management of our resources? - President Zuma, 18 May 2010, Green Economy Summit

15 GGND Business as usual Global energy demand rises by 45% by 2030, oil price rises to $180/barrel GHG increase by 45% by 2030, leading to ave temp increase by 6% Global GDP reduced by 5-10%, poor countries by 10% plus Ecological degradation & severe water scarcities 3 billion live below $2/day by 2015

16 Goals of a GGND $2 - $3 trillion economic recovery package over next 2-3 years must be guided by the following 3 objectives: Revive world economy, create employment & protect vulnerable groups Reduce carbon dependence, ecosystem degradation and water scarcity Further MDG of ending extreme world poverty by 2025

17

18 Obama s Green New Deal $100 b of the $827 to create 2 million new jobs by: Retrofitting buildings energy efficiency Expanding mass transit & freight rail Constructing a smart electrical grid transmission system RE wind, solar, 2 nd -gen biofuels & biobased energy Which transition?

19 South Korea s GND

20 Reforestation in South Korea

21 before after

22 Japan: $1B, 10 years= Self-Sustaining Industry Source: PV Status Report

23 global population: from 6 b to 9 b by 2050 by 2007 more than 50% of the world population living in cities Africa has the fastest urbanization rate m in cities by 2010, 1.2 b in cities by % of cities in the developed world are shrinking

24 one billion people worldwide live in slums One third of the total urban population! 6% of urban pop in developed countries live in slums 78% of urban pop in the least developed countries live in slums The Challenge of Slums UN-HABITAT Report Kibera, Nairobi

25 Car First Planning All based on cheap oil.oil meets 60% of world energy needs

26 Urban Infrastructure $41 trillion energy, water, transport Water = $22.6 trillion Energy = $9 trillion Road and rail = $7.8 Air/sea ports = $1.6 What kind of urban infrastructure? What technologies? Who sets the criteria?...cities that ignore environmental impact will themselves face another collapse of infrastructure 30 or 40 years from now... Booz Allen Hamilton, Strategy and Business, 2007

27 How will urban infrastructures be configured? Inclusive urbanism: universal access Splintered urbanism: commodification Slum urbanism: quiet encroachment Green urbanism: minimisation of damage Livable urbanism: restoration of life

28 imagining the infrading? Footprinting within sustainable neighbourhoods

29 Cape Town by class

30 Cluster Group % of suburbs No of households % of total households Silver Spoons Upper Middle Class Sub-total Middle Suburbia Community Nests Labour Pool New Bonds Sub-total Township Living Towering Density Dire Straits Below the breadline Sub-total

31 CT s sociometabolic flows Electricity: 10 billion KWh in 2006/7, which equals nearly 3500 KWh per person per annum Oil: over 2 billion litres of crude oil/666 litres per person CO2: nearly 20 million tons of CO2/7 t/capita Water: 247m Kl/82 per person - higher than the global ave of 57 Kilo litres per person Sewage: 200 million Kl 67 Kl per person pa Solid waste: 2,9 m t solid waste in 2007/8-2 Kgs per 0.4 million tons was recycled Building materials: 6 m t used, 1 m t of rubble - 35% to 75% recycled

32 CT s inclusive urbanism but spatially segregated Water Sanitation Electricity Solid waste Rates Tariff increases 6000 l free 4800 l free 50 KWh free Free service on properties valued <R88000 and heavily subsidized for properties in R R range Properties <R88000 zero rates Properties <R % discount Households earning < R1740/month receive 100% rebate and R20 subsidy on services account Ave increases above inflation, but lower increases for poor households (and in some cases even decreases)

33 Infrastructure spend for 2007/2008: R9.3 billion or 47% of budget 8% of GGP Large Technical Systems'

34 Energy Use by Source Cape Town Energy Use per Sector Cape Town Electricity Petrol/Diesel Other oil-based products Coal Wood 29% 46% 17% 7% 1% Transport Industry/ Commerce Households Agriculture Other 47% 38% 14% 0% 1%

35 Electricity Coal-fired power stations: 2600MW/400KV line Nuclear: 1800MW Gas turbines: 171MW (Acacia) + 40MW Hydro: Palmiet (40MW), Steenbras (160MW) Darling Wind Farm: 5.2MW SHW: = 4.2MW 10% of CT s electricity is from RE

36 Electricity Use, YoY % growth

37 Viable decoupling technologies Wind Ocean Solar PV Hydro Solar thermal Pumped Storage 3 000MW 1 000MW 247MW 15MW 1 400MW 1 800MW Total 7 452MW

38 Cape Town s bulk water infrastructure

39 Cape Town Domestic Unaccounted for Water (UAW) Commercial and Industrial Other 51% 21% 15% 13% Unrestricted demand: 510 million m 3 Maximum bulk supply: 475 million m 3

40 B u lk S u p p lie d (m ilio n c u b ic m e tr e s ) Year CCT Demand Projections Existing Supply Supply incl. BWP Unconstrained Low Water Demand Actual 2007/08 IDP WDM Strategy

41 Towards water sustainability : fall from 930Ml/day- 745Ml/day saving of 175 Ml/day 2005 Western Cape Reconciliation Study: proposals to save another 323 Ml/day 175Ml Ml/day = more than 50% of 1999 levels without compromising growth

42 Options leak detection and repair; pressure management; use of water-efficient fittings; metering and plumbing repairs in low income areas; use of grey water; use of well points and boreholes; metering; tariffs and surcharges/credit control; water user education; rainwater tanks; exchange reclaimed wastewater for commercial irrigation; industrial re-use; reclamation to potable water standards; urban irrigation; dual reticulation in new housing (so that grey water can be supplied for toilets); and aquifer recharge Longer-term: desalination but only with RE energy source

43 Sanitation 20 wastewater treatment works 3 marine outfalls 27 major pump stations 15 major interceptor sewers about 120 km of bulk gravity sewers 395 smaller pump stations and associated locallevel reticulation networks 14 out of 20 WWTW do not comply

44

45 Recycling options Incineration Composting High lime process Drying and pelletisation Co-disposal in landfills Direct agricultural use Manufacture of organic fertilizer Brick making and allied fields Co-combustion in coal fired power stations.

46 Can be done CCT 2007 Review report: use of treated effluent could increase to 170 M l per day - 40% of daily total or 30% of annual supply from Berg River Dam Life cycle cost: below R2,0 / kl. Total capital cost: R202 million, recovered in 4 years from sales

47

48

49 Landfill costs: R54/ ton in 2005/6 R192/ton in 2007/8 R235/ton by 2013

50 Options business-as-usual (BAU) BAU plus recycling for the richest households MaxiMin option

51 MaxiMin area cleaning plus waste buy-back centres waste collection for all households with compulsory separation for the most affluent ( households) 20% recovery at landfills diversion of 20% of building rubble and compost material into recycling activities.

52 MaxMin Recycle 1.2 million tons of the total waste flow of a total of 2.9 million tons Cost of increasing the level of recycled material from below 10% (current) to over 40% is estimated to be between 3-15% of the total budget for solid waste management, but future cost escalations of BAU avoided

53 Advantages of waste sector Significant private sector involvement Substantial community-based sector Demand for waste (hence a significant illegal sector) Job creation potential

54 Dangers of assumptions Electricity: 2.7% /8 & 3.5% onward Water: 3% pa Waste: 7% without recycling But in reality, evidence of decoupling...

55 Conclusion Global sustainability depends on cities becoming more sustainable City sustainability depends on how urban infrastructures are reconfigured Key roles: design professionals, utility managers & financial investors Key challenge: beyond minimisation of damage, work with quiet encroachment