Clean Energy Innovations for Development:

Transcription

1 The World Bank Sustainable Energy Group Clean Energy Innovations for Development: Daniel Kammen Chief Technical Specialist for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency The World Bank Class of 1935 Distinguished Professor of Energy, University of California, Berkeley CTF, Cape Town, South Africa, June 25, 2011

2 AR4 TAR SAR FAR 1 st IPCC Assessment (1990): unequivocal detection of human impact not likely for a decade 2 nd (1995): balance of evidence suggests discernible human influence 3 rd (2001): most of the warming in the last 50 years is likely (>66%) due to human activities 4 th (2007): most of the warming very likely (> 90%) due human activity 4 th (2007): warming will most strongly and quickly impact the global poor SRREN (2011): 80% clean by 2050 possible, if

3 People without access to electricity (millions) There are 1.4 billion people lacking access to electricity today Based on current trends, 1.2 billion people will still lack access in 2030 Another 1+ billion have intermittent/unreliable access International Energy Agency, 2010

4 WORLD BANK GROUP S ROLE IN ENERGY Sectoral Distribution (FY ) 40% energy lending was for RE/EE in FY09 a 24% increase from FY08; 64% in 2010 Nearly $4.5 billion invested in programs directly dealing with energy access New Energy Strategy currently under political review

5 World Bank Energy Lending Medupi RSA 2010: Portfolio is 65% non-fossil fuel 2011: New Energy Strategy (in review)

6 Chief Technical Specialist Portfolio Morocco Ouarzazate: world s largest solar plant; 3 GW, $9 billion Bangladesh One million solar households by 2012 Mexico $1 billion for energy efficiency, rapid transit plans East Africa Regional Power Pool w/feed-in tariffs, climate policies C. America Regional Power Pool Turkey Integration of transmission expansion to wind sites and building efficiency upgrades linked, $1 billion Malaysia Coal alternative for Sabah selected E. Europe Coal alternative dialog

7 Can renewables become business as usual? Renewable and Energy Efficiency Generation as a proportion of global power sector 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% Additional new renewables generation as % of all power additions 28% 32% Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment 2010, UNEP/BNEF 15% 10% 5% 0% 6% 3.1% 3.4% 3.7% 4.2% 4.8% Excluding Large Hydro 10% 12% 14% Installed new renewables generation as a % of overall generation mix 5.5% Message: Low carbon technology has become more mainstream, but many barriers remain

8 Emissions / Population Snapshot (2005)

9 Primary Energy Consumption (Mboe/d) GDP (billion 2000 RMB) China: Energy consumption and GDP ( ) 40 16,000 GDP 30 hydro & nuclear 12,000 natural gas 20 biomass 8,000 oil 10 coal 4, x GDP, 3x Energy Consumption, but still a mixed result on energy intensity

10 CO 2 emissions (Gton) China needs to half its energy intensity and power generation would need to shift dramatically by 2030 CCP Scenario (2,336 GW) Energy Efficiency Lowcarbon technology Nuclear 4% Renewable 6% Hydro 16% Oil & gas 14% OUTLOOK Coal 60% ENV Scenario (1,975 GW) Renewa ble, 23% Coal, 30% 2 0 Hydro, 23% Oil & Gas, 16% Nuclear, 8% World Bank Group

11 Beating expert forecasts: the value of learning by doing & getting on with the job Actual market development

12 Solar Advertising in Kenyan papers 70 Shillings (Ksh)/dollar: 12,435 Ksh = $170

13 Performance Comparison by Brand Jacobson, Duke and Kammen (ES&T & Energy Policy, 2000; EAS & Nation) Sample Size: Koncar = 31 New NAPS = 33 Old NAPS = 32 Phoenix = 5 Phoenix Gold = 10 x-si = 17

14

15 FEE Koncar Phoenix FEE Phoenix Koncar Shenzen A New Bad Actor Enters the Market (2005) Jacobson & Kammen, (2007)

16 From R&D to Deployment R&D Funding Commercial change Cost reductions Nemet, G. F. (2006) Energy Policy 34(17):

17 From R&D to Deployment R&D Funding Commercial change Cost reductions 50% increase in PV efficiency occured immediately after unprecedented >$1b global investment in PV R&D ( ) Nemet, G. F. (2006) Energy Policy 34(17):

18 From R&D to Deployment R&D Funding Commercial change Cost reductions 50% increase in PV efficiency occured immediately after unprecedented >$1b global investment in PV R&D ( ) efficiency improvements account for 30% of the cost reductions in PV over the past two decades. INCREASE IN PLANT SIZE EVEN LARGE IMPACT Nemet, G. F. (2006) Energy Policy 34(17):

19 An important model: the Japanese Sunshine Program

20 Energy Efficiency Training, Orinoco Christian Casillas (Energy and Resources Group PhD student)

21 Global Greenhouse Gas Marginal Abatement Curve Abatement cost Gas plant CCS retrofit Coal CCS retrofit per tco 2 e Iron and steel CCS new build Low penetration wind Coal CCS new build Plug-in hybrid cars Power plant biomass co-firing Residential electronics Residential Degraded forest reforestation Reduced intensive Nuclear agriculture appliances Retrofit residential HVAC Pastureland afforestation High penetration conversion wind Degraded land restoration Tillage and residue mgmt Solar PV Insulation retrofit (residential) 2 nd gen. biofuels Solar CSP Building efficiency Cars full hybrid new build Waste recycling Organic soil restoration Geothermal Grassland management Reduced pastureland conversion Reduced slash and burn agriculture conversion Small hydro 1 st generation biofuels Rice management Efficiency improvements other industry Electricity from landfill gas Clinker substitution by fly ash Cropland nutrient management Motor systems efficiency Insulation retrofit (commercial) Lighting switch incandescent to LED (residential) Abatement potential GtCO 2 e per year Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0 (2010): McKinsey & Company 21

22 Global Greenhouse Gas Marginal Abatement Curve: Mexico Low-Carbon Study JJohnson, et al., Low-carbon study for Mexico (2010): The World Bank 22

23 Greenhouse Gas Marginal Abatement Curves: Communities of Orinoco & Marshall Point, Nicaragua 23 Casillas and Kammen (2010) The energy-poverty-climate nexus, Science, 330,

24 Beating expert forecasts: the value of learning by doing & getting on with the job Actual market development

25 Solar Advertising in Kenyan papers 70 Shillings (Ksh)/dollar: 12,435 Ksh = $170

26 Greenhouse gas and sustainability calculators: &