The Pro-Nuclear Environmentalist

Transcription

1 The Pro-Nuclear Environmentalist The Journey & The Destination Paydirt 2012 Ben Heard Founding Director ThinkClimate Consulting Founder- Decarbonise SA February 2012

2 Where I came from...

3 Where I am coming from now The climate crisis is very, very bad. Very, very urgent Temperature must be permitted to rise no more than 1.5 C Atmospheric CO 2 needs to be returned to 350ppm, less than current levels The global energy supply must be completely decarbonised Coal must be eliminated from the global energy supply post-haste New Artic sea ice minimum. Sept 2011 World Primary Energy Consumption by source 2009 (Source: IEA 2009 Report)

4 1. Energy Efficiency Supportive, but risky to rely on high levels of implementation Long-term impact is wealth generation, not emission reduction (Jervons Paradox) 2. Wind SA has 1,150 MW installed Emissions from electricity 1990/2006/2011 (Mt CO2-e): 6.5/10/8 No fossil closure, more peaking gas An inadequate solution on its own to replace fossil 3. Solar What about the non-nuclear solutions? Cost, area and resource requirements, storage limitations, back-up requirements are too great for major, rapid roll out An inadequate solution on its own to replace fossil in the necessary timeframe 4. Enhanced Geothermal (HDR) Progressing, but slowly. Hard, expensive, distant, immature An inadequate solution on its own to replace fossil in the necessary timeframe Any honest strategy to tackle climate change will be one of energy efficiency, plus renewables, plus... otherwise we cannot meet the challenge in the necessary time frame

5 So why not nuclear? 1. It s dangerous Operations Waste 2. Uranium mining is really horrible 3. It leads to proliferation 4. It produces to much GHG across the lifecycle 5. It s too expensive 6. It takes too long 7. Environmentalists say no

6 1 (a). Nuclear power operation: a constant risk with catastrophic consequences Nation % Electricity from Nuclear Death from radiation incident USA 20 0 France 80 0 Japan 30 0 Chernobyl (Ukraine 1986) ARS Fatalities 28 Latent cancer fatalities (thyroid) 15 Other radiological impact Other major impact Data Sources Nil detectable Psychological trauma United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR); United Nations Information Service)

7 Safety Record of Nuclear Power Plants: Global Summary of severe* accidents in energy chains for electricity Data from Paul Scherrer Institute, in OECD * severe = more than 5 fatalities OECD Non-OECD Energy chain Fatalities Fatalities/TWy Fatalities Fatalities/TWy Coal , Natural gas Hydro ,000 10,285 Nuclear Nuclear power is exceptionally safe and only getting safer

8 1 (b). Nuclear Waste is deadly, long lived and impossible to manage National Hazardous Waste (Annual) (t) Annual HLW 25 GW Nuclear Power Industry (t)/m3 Annual Coal Waste: Loy Yang 2.2 GW 1.1 million 750/ 250 (0.07% national total by weight) 577,800m 3 of fly ash 9,079 ML of wastewater 2,070 tons of fly ash 56,428 tons of SO 2 29,398 tons of NOx 2,577 tons of CO 18,232,826 tco 2 e Source: National Waste Report 2010 Source: Comm. Of Aust Source: LYP 2009 Annual Report

9 Nuclear waste: what is it and how is it managed? High Level Waste (HLW): Spent fuel and reprocessed components. Needs cooling, special handling, transport and storage. Remains hazardous for a long time The HLW eventually needs permanent geological disposal. This is feasible and low risk (Commonwealth of Australia 2006). No country has done it yet. Many are working on it. This is fuel in waiting for Generation IV (Fast) Reactors Commonwealth of Australia 2006 p 69

10 2. Uranium mining is harmful and unsustainable La Trobe Valley brown coal mining Flooded La Trobe Valley brown coal mine Copper Mine, Canada with SMTD to neighbouring sound Ramu Nickel Mine, PNG. Cleared rainforest, with planned SMTD...uranium mining is going to have to be pretty darn bad...

11 Mining uranium with acid in-situ leaching, Beverely Beverley Uranium Mine, South Australia Source of image: Heathgate Resources Annual Environmental Report (2007)

12 Comparison of energy value between coal and uranium Leigh Creek Coal Train 2.8 km long 161 Wagons 6,900 t coal per day The energy equivalent in uranium oxide 20 L 200 kg

13 Conclusion: An open and honest examination of nuclear power as a means to tackle climate change must be permitted to take place in Australia

14 South Australia s Base Load Generation Stock 2011 Name Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Reported Emissions 2009 (tco 2 -e) BASELOAD 2, million Commissioned Comments Torrens Island A&B Gas 1, million 1967&1977 Highly inefficient for gas (33%-36%) Northern Brown Coal million kg CO 2 -e/ kwh Pelican Point Gas , / kg CO 2 -e/ kwh Thomas Playford B Brown Coal million kg CO 2 -e/kwh; running out of coal Snuggery Gas/Other , & 1997 Whyalla Brown Coal/Gas , kg CO 2 -e/ kwh Port Lincoln Distillate 50 32, /2000 Osborne Gas , REMAINDER ,000 Predominantly small gas peaking TOTAL FOSSIL 3, million GENERATION STATE TOTAL Approx 4, million 1,000+ MW wind. State average GHG intensity 0.72 kg CO 2 -e/ kwh

15 Incremental, Small Modular Name Fuel Type Capacity (MW) Reported Emissions (tco 2 -e) BASELOAD 2, ,000 Torrens Island Nuclear: AP , Commissioned Comments Northern Combined Nuclear: B&W mpower x Pelican Point Gas , / kg CO2-e/ kwh Snuggery Gas/Other , & 1997 Whyalla Nuclear: B&W mpower x Port Lincoln Distillate 50 32, /2000 Osborne Gas , REMAINDER (Fossil) ,000 Predominantly small gas peaking TOTAL FOSSIL 1, million GENERATION STATE TOTAL Approx 5, million 1,350+ MW wind and other renewables. State average GHG intensity 0.11 kg CO 2 -e/ kwh (or better?)

16 So what now? What s missing? People

17 If we either DOWNPLAY THE PROBLEM or TELL OURSELVES LIES about the solutions WE FAIL

18 We ve ALL gotta move

19 Sustainable Energy Choices: The Case for Nuclear in 2 ½ minutes