Zero emission strategies the future of refrigeration, air-conditioning

Transcription

1 Zero emission strategies the future of refrigeration, air-conditioning Bernhard Siegele, GIZ Proklima MOP29 Side Event Montreal, 21st November 2017 supported by: Page 1

2 Drivers for cooling Page 2

3 Main drivers for RAC&HP demand & emission Economic growth (RAC&HP sector grows over proportionally fast times of GDP) Demographic growth (50% of global population will live in the tropics in late 2030s) Climatic Conditions (Amount Cooling/Heating/Humidity control needed) Global Warming (upto +50% in 2100) Replacement of fuel heaters by heat pumps (hot water, heating) CO 2 intensity of energy supply (Percentage of renewables) Energy Sector Developments, Electricity Subsidies, Grids (additional 1.7 bio. acccess to electricity) Consumption Patterns, Lifestyles and Productivity needs (comfort, food preservation, markets, fashion, leisure, hygiene, etc) Regulations, Standards, Incentive Structures Others, such as Compliance Requirements (MP, UNFCCC) Page 3

4 Consumption patterns Global GDP will triple by 2030 Ca. 2 billion additional middle-income consumers by 2030 Urbanisation growing Already now more people live in cities than in rural areas; Ca 80% of buildings in 2050 are not yet built; Development of world s middle class Middle East & North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Asia Pacific Central & South America Europe North America Choosing sustainable products is essential Page 4

5 Page 5

6 Climate Zone Tundra Humid Continental Humid Sub-tropical Desert Dry Tropical Application Heat Pumps, Refrigeration Heat Pump, Refrigeration, A/C Refrigeration, A/C, some HP Refrigeration, A/C, Humidification Refrigeration, A/C, Dehumidification Class A Class B Class C Class D Class E Tropical rainforest (Af) Tropical monsoon (Am) Tropical savanna (Aw, As) Desert (BWh, BWk) Semi-arid (BSh, BSk) Humid subtropical (Cfa, Cwa) Oceanic (Cfb, Cwb, Cfc, Cwc) Mediterranean (Csa, Csb) Humid continental (Dfa, Dwa, Dfb, Dwb, Dsa, Dsb) Subarctic (Dfc, Dwc, Dfd, Dwd, Dsc, Dsd) Tundra (ET) Ice cap (EF) Alpine (ET, EF) Page 6

7 RAC sector distribution in developing countries 2020 & 2030 (BAU scenario) Commercial Refrigeration 10% Industrial Refrigeration 7% Domestic Refrigeration 7% Unitary Air Conditioni ng 45% Transport Refrigeration 0% Chiller 6% MAC 25% Domestic Commercial Refrigeration; Refrigeration; 7% 7% Industrial Refrigeration; 4% AC most important sector!! Unitary Air Conditioning ; 56% Transport Refrigeration; 0% Chiller; 4% MAC; 23% RAC&HP demand almost doubles from 2020 to 2030 from 3,2 MTCO2 to 6,2 MTCO2 GIZ, Green Cooling Database, 2015 Page 7

8 100% 90% 80% 70% Relationship in % between direct and indirect emissions from RAC in developing countries Indirect Emissions Direct Emissions (2012) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 3% 11% 12% 20% 23% 26% 27% 28% 31% 36% 40% 46% 47% 0% Page 8

9 MtCO2eq Relationship between Saving Potentials of Energy Efficiency, Energy Supply Intensity and HFC Phase out (GWP 100) RAC Total CO Years Page 9

10 MtCO2eq Relationship between Saving Potentials of Energy Efficiency, Energy Supply Intensity and HFC Phase out (GWP 100) RAC Total CO2 Total RE CO2 Intensity Years Page 10

11 MtCO2eq Relationship between Saving Potentials of Energy Efficiency, Energy Supply Intensity and HFC Phase out (GWP 100) RAC Total CO2 Total RE Total EE Total HFC Total EE+RE CO2 Intensity Energy Efficiency Years Page 11

12 MtCO2eq Relationship between Saving Potentials of Energy Efficiency, Energy Supply Intensity and HFC Phase out (GWP 100) RAC Total CO2 Total RE Total EE Total HFC Total EE+RE Total EE+RE+HFC CO2 Intensity Energy Efficiency HFC Emissions Years Page 12

13 Zero emission strategies Page 13

14 Technology Options for system innovation and emission reduction Heat Loads Control needs Drive Options Fluid Heat Transfer Function Controlled Air, Liquid & Object Conditions Reduce heat loads Increase control efficiency Increase drive efficiency, Replace fluids with very low/no GHG options, optimize heat transfer Design functional units and consumption pattern, Smart controls e.g. in the building sector (insulation, shading, natural ventilation) use free cooling/heating, improve quantifyied&quality assessment and planning Decarbonization of supplies (electric, thermal) Eliminate system heat losses Adjust room temperature and reduce temperature lift Introduce variable and precision controls Page 14

15 With increasing cooling needs - Operational hours increase - Annual Lifetime decreases - Wear and tear increases - Leak and energy consumption increase - Expenditures on purchase and services - Backup costs - Load management Specific Issues - Innovative manufacturing for very humid/tropical or very hot (T3) climate - Identify main consumption and supply alternatives (e.g. thermal) Cooling Degree Days Hamburg 110 Frankfurt 300 Johannesburg 500 Shanghai 2000 Brasilia 2400 Hongkong 4000 Delhi 4900 Santo Dom 5300 Dubai 6100 Jakarta 6200 Bangkok 7000 Niameh 7500 Makkah 8500 Ashrae, 2009 Page 15

16 Integrated concepts for RAC Integrated concept will include: Climate, topography and environmental concepts. Building function and whole energy demands. Sustainability of the resources, energy and environmental impact. Adapt technology and engineering concepts suitable to desert, tropical and semi- tropical climates Include traditional architecture and know-how Page 16

17 Wind tower Masdar city Page 17

18 PASSIVE COOLING: Wind and Shading Page 18

19 PASSIVE COOLING: Wind and Shading in traditional South-East Asian Housing Page 19

20 Natural Cooling without Air conditioning: New buildings in South East Asia following the traditional concept (Exhibit DAM, Frankfurt) Page 20

21 Naturally ventilated housing Page 21

22 Naturally ventilated mosque in Indonesia Page 22

23 Naturally ventilated housing Page 23

24 Key messages Cooling has impact on almost everyone. Even the most climate friendly business as usual based on conventional technologies for refrigeration and air-conditioning is possibly not good enough to manage growing demand Innovation (new products, new concepts, ) needed Inter-disciplinary, system-oriented approaches needed not everything to be done by NOU 22/11/2017 Page 24

25 Thank you very much! Page 25