Mongolia s Green Development Policy Outcome-level Indicators. Yongsung Kim, GGGI Xin Zhou, IGES Mustafa Moinuddin, IGES

Transcription

1 Mongolia s Green Development Policy Outcome-level Indicators Yongsung Kim, GGGI Xin Zhou, IGES Mustafa Moinuddin, IGES

2 Table of Contents Background and Objectives Review of Existing Indicators Methodological Framework Step 1-3: Draft Outcome Indicators Step 4: Validation and Consultation Step 5: Final Proposal Recommendations 1

3 Background and Objectives Mongolia s National Green Development Policy (NGDP) lays out 6 strategic objectives and 52 implementation measures The NGDP proposes 14 outcome-level indicators to track the progress of the policy s first ( ) and second ( ) phases The need for improving the structure, consistency, comprehensiveness, representativeness, and measurability of the 14 NGDP indicators was highlighted by the government; most importantly, not many of the 14 NGDP indicators can be tracked by the government s official data Mongolia is already in Year 3 of the first phase, but the government is yet fully prepared monitor and measure the progress of the NGDP implementation 2

4 Background and Objectives Objectives of GGGI s study to support the Mongolian government are: Identify the broad menu of data being tracked by NSO and relevant government bodies Review the NGDP, its Mid-term Implementation Plan, and the SDG goals/targets/indicators Examine the list of 14 NGDP indicators, and 108 output-level indicators proposed by NSO in coordination with UNEP-PAGE Identify the points of convergence and propose a set of outcome-level indicators to be used in tracking the progress of the first phase of implementation ( ) 3

5 Review of Existing Indicators NGDP s 14 indicators propose mid-term targets for the years 2020 (phase 1) and 2030 (phase 2) Indicators Indicators Share of RE in total installed capacity of energy production 20% 30% Increased environmental investments 20% 30% Reduction of building heat loss 20% 30% Share of forest area 8.5% 9% Share of waste recycling 20% 40% Share of green development expenditures in GDP Share of R&D expenditures in GDP Share of green procurement in total government procurement 2% 3% Population access to drinking water Population connected to improved sanitation facilities 80% 90% 40% 60% 2% 3% Poverty level 24% 15% 20% 30% Share of protected areas 25% 30% Percentage of greenery spaces Share of the agriculture and manufacturing in GDP 15% 30% 28% 30% 4

6 Review of Existing Indicators 108 output-level indicators identified by NSO-MEGDT under broad government consultation Study of the NGDP Stakeholder workshops NSO and working group on green development Consultancy/UNSD 22 ministries and agencies 5

7 Review of Existing Indicators Mongolia s statistical yearbook Presents key social and economic indicators, with time series data from 1960 Still making efforts to ensure that the indicator data and methodologies conform to internationally common standards Additional efforts being made to expand the framework of indicators on an annual basis SDG Indicators Set of 230 global indicators proposed by the Inter-Agency and Expert Group on SDG indicators (IAEG-SDGs) approved Roughly half of the indicators lack acceptable country coverage, agreed-upon methodologies, or both 6

8 Review of Existing Indicators: Framework The framework of NGDP and its Mid-term Implementation Plan is well developed and structured 6 Strategic Objectives 52 Implementation Measures 266 Implementation Activities Mapping 266 implementation activities with 52 implementation measures

9 Review of Existing Indicators: 108 Indicators Review of the 108 output-level indicators indicate several gaps 6 Strategic Objectives 14 out of 52 implementation measures have no relevant indicator (27%, marked in red) 71 out of 108 indicators do not have trackable data (66%, in brackets) Linkage between 108 indicators and 266 implementation activities is weak, mainly due to the different timing of their development 52 Implementation Measures 108 Outputlevel Indicators Mapping 108 indicators with 52 implementation measures (9) (14) (0) (12) (0) (2)

10 Review of Existing Indicators: 14 Indicators Review of the 14 NGDP indicators indicate several gaps 6 Strategic Objectives 36 out of 52 implementation measures are not fully captured (69%, in red) Indicators are not well balanced across the 6 strategic objectives, and its hierarchy against the 108 output-level indicators is unclear Only 4 of the 14 indicators have trackable data; others need improvements in methodology or additional data (29%) 52 Implementation Measures 108 Outputlevel Indicators Mapping 14 indicators with 52 implementation measures

11 Review of Existing Indicators: Summary 6 Strategic Objectives Weak Connection 14 Existing NGDP Indicators 52 Implementation Measures Weak Connection 266 Implementation Activities Weak Connection 108 indicators (UNEP-NSO-MEGDT) 10

12 Methodological Framework 6 Strategic Objectives 52 Implementation Measures 266 Implementation Activities Weak Connection Weak Connection Weak Connection 14 Existing NGDP Indicators 108 indicators (UNEP-NSO- MEGDT) SET OF OUTCOME INDICATORS SDG indicators Outcome Indicators New Outcome Indicators Selection based on - 6 Strategic objectives - 52 Implementation measures Implementation activities NSO statistical yearbook and other sectoral statistics 11

13 Methodological Framework Step 1 Identify the major outcomes to be measured for each strategic objectives, considering their implementation measures (what should be measured) Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Define indicators for each identified outcomes (Step 2) based on existing indicator sets, NSO data, and SDG indicators Map the draft outcome indicators with the 266 implementation activities (connectivity between indicators and practical implementation) Improve the robustness of the indicator set through validation and consultation process Step 5 Propose the final set of outcome-level NGDP indicators 12

14 Step 1-3: Draft Outcome Indicators Defining the outcomes to be measured for each strategic objectives STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE 1 Promote a sustainable consumption and production pattern with efficient use natural resources, low greenhouse gas emissions, and reduced waste management Outcomes (OC) OC1 Transformed production pattern OC2 Improved efficiency in natural resource use OC3 Reductions in GHG emissions OC4 Reduction in environmental pollution STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE 2 Sustain ecosystem s carrying capacity by enhancing environmental protection and restoration activities, and reducing environmental pollution and degradation Outcomes (OC) OC5 Enhanced rehabilitation OC6 Reduced degradation STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE 3 Outcomes (OC) Increase investment in natural capital, human development and clean technology by introducing financing, tax, lending and other incentives for supporting a green economy OC7 Increased investment in green development 13

15 Step 1-3: Draft Outcome Indicators Defining the outcomes to be measured for each strategic objectives STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE 4 Outcomes (OC) Engrain a green lifestyle by reducing poverty and promoting green jobs OC8 Reduced multi-dimensional poverty OC9 Increased employment rate and number of green jobs OC10 Strengthened capacities of resilience to disasters STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE 5 Outcomes (OC) Encourage education, science, and technology to serve as the catalyst for green development, and develop cultural values and livelihoods that are in harmony with nature OC11 Increased awareness of green development OC12 Science and technology-based transformation in lifestyle in harmony with nature STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE 6 Outcomes (OC) Develop and implement a population settlement plan in accordance with climate change, while considering the availability of natural resources and the resilience of regions OC13 Increased number of climate-resilient, smart and green cities and villages OC14 Reduced pollution and municipal solid wastes from urban settlement 14

16 Step 1-3: Draft Outcome Indicators Draft Proposal: 37 NGDP Outcome-level Indicators 1 Energy intensity by industry 16 Share of degraded land to total by sector 31 Ratio of students receiving sustainable development education 2 Share of renewable energy in total energy Share of enterprises certified ISO in total 17 Share of green development investment in GDP 32 supply number of enterprises 3 GHG emissions from energy sector 18 Share of renewable energy used for street lighting in total energy used for street lighting 33 Share of R&D expenditure in GDP 4 Share of green building's total construction Share of ton-km per year of electric railway in 19 costs in total construction costs total freight railway network 34 Number of green/smart cities 5 Air pollutant (e.g. SOx or dust) intensity by Proportion of terrestrial protected areas to total 20 industry surface area 35 Share of green space in urban area 6 Water pollutant (e.g. COD) intensity by industry 21 Share of threatened flora and fauna species by class (mammals, reptiles, etc.) 36 Waste recycling rate 7 Industrial solid waste intensity by industry 22 Proportion of land area covered by forest 37 Investment in public transport 8 Share of agriculture in GDP 23 Percentage of population access to safe drinking water 9 Number of green jobs by sector 24 Percentage of population connected to improved sanitation facilities 10 Share of area with zero and reduced tillage in Share of treated water based on standards to 25 total plantation areas total wastewater 11 Chemical fertilizers used on cultivated area 26 Unemployment rate 12 Share of rehabilitated land area in total land area by type 27 Labor productivity (value added per worker) 13 Total number of guaranteed storages Percentage of the population covered by social 28 established protection floors/systems 14 Share of number of tourists for eco-tourist operators in total number of tourists 29 Poverty headcount 15 Extraction rates of minerals 30 Number of deaths, missing injured, relocated or evacuated persons from disaster Yellow Boxes Indicators with trackable data in Statistical Yearbook 15

17 Step 1-3: Draft Outcome Indicators Draft Proposal: 37 NGDP Outcome-level Indicators 6 Strategic Objectives Complete coverage of 6 strategic objectives and 14 outcomes (100%) 48 out of 52 implementation measures covered (92%) 234 out of 266 implementation activities covered (88%) Strong relevance to 108 indicators (27 out of 37 are identical or similar, 73%) and SDG indicators (32 out of 37 are identical or similar, 86%) Better workability (less indicators) and trackability 52 Implementation Measures 108 Output-level Indicators Mapping 37 NGDP outcome-level indicators with 52 implementation measures

18 Step 4: Validation and Consultation Results of consultation with NSO on 37 NGDP outcome-level indicators 1 out of 37 indicators to be removed as it was found not-so-relevant for Mongolia (i.e. share of green building s total construction costs in total construction costs) 3 out of 37 indicators to be broken down into sub-indicators (i.e. 2 subindicators for each) 9 indicators to be added, based on UNEP s Guidance Manual for Green Economy Indicators In summary, the list was to become a set of 45 indicators (or 48, including the sub-indicators) Clarifications made on which indicators have trackable data, and revisions made to the title of indicators 17

19 Step 5: Final Proposal GGGI s team reviewed the results of Step 4 and recommend a set of 43 NGDP Outcome-level Indicators 1 2 Energy intensity by industry (e.g. toe/sectoral gross output) Share of renewable energy in total installed capacity of energy production (%) 3 GHG emissions by sector (Mt CO2-eq./year) 18 4 Percentage of financial support that is allocated to the construction and retrofitting of green buildings (%) 5 Reduction rate of building heat loss (%) Annual average concentration of pollutants in air (SO2, NOx, PM1-2.5, PM in mg/m3) Concentration of water pollutants (e.g. BOD in mg/l) by monitored rivers 8 Solid waste generation by sector (kt) Hazardous waste management by type of treatment (kt) Share of agriculture and manufacturing sector in GDP (%) Number of green jobs by sector (number of people) Share of area with zero and reduced tillage in total plantation areas (%) Chemical fertilizers used on cultivated area (kg/ha) Share of rehabilitated agriculture and mineral extraction land area in total land area (%) Share of number of tourists for eco-tourist operators in total number of tourists (%) 16 Tourism direct GDP (as a percentage of total GDP and in growth rate) (%) 17 Rate of processed mineral products (%) Percentage of land that is degraded over total land area (%) Share of expenditure of green development and environment protection in GDP (%) Share of green and sustainable procurement in total government procurement (%) Share of renewable energy used for street lighting in total energy used for street lighting (%) No. of vehicle categorized by vehicle age, capacity, and by type (ICE, HEV etc.) Share of protected area in total area of the country (%) Percentage of fresh water reserves and streamline formation areas (%) Share of threatened flora and fauna species by class (mammals, reptiles, etc.) (%) Labor productivity Poverty headcount by sex, age group and location (urban/rural) Share of government budget dedicated to disaster prevention (%) Ratio of students (at all educational levels) receiving formal sustainable development education (%) Number of enterprises certified ISO in total number of enterprises (%) 36 Share of R&D expenditure in GDP (%) 37 Health and Safety Life Index (UB City) 38 Green space per person in urban space (m2 per person) 39 Waste recycling rate 40 Share of public transportation 26 Proportion of land area covered by forest (%) 41 Coal consumption intensity (t/gdp) Percentage of population access to safe drinking water (%) Percentage of population connected to improved sanitation facilities (%) Share of treated wastewater in total wastewater (%) 30 Unemployment rate (%) by sex and age group. 42 Material use per 1 USD 43 Material footprint per capita Data availability Yellow: Unclear Red: Not Available 18

20 Step 5: Final Proposal GGGI s team reviewed the results of Step 4 and recommend a set of 43 NGDP Outcome-level Indicators Complete coverage of 6 strategic objectives and 14 outcomes (100%) 48 out of 52 implementation measures covered (92%) 234 out of 266 implementation activities covered (88%) Strong relevance to 108 indicators (30 out of 43 are identical or similar, 70%) and SDG indicators (34 out of 43 are identical or similar, 79%) 19

21 Step 5: Final Proposal Cross linkages of 43 NGDP outcome-level indicators with 6 strategic objectives Reference: Typology mapping based on IGES research report (Zhou and Moinuddin, 2016, Sustainable Development Goals, Targets Indicators: Linkages and holistic sustainability, to be available in June 2016, IGES, Hayama) 20

22 Step 5: Final Proposal Cross linkages of 43 NGDP outcome-level indicators with strategic objective 1 Reference: Typology mapping based on IGES research report (Zhou and Moinuddin, 2016, Sustainable Development Goals, Targets Indicators: Linkages and holistic sustainability, to be available in June 2016, IGES, Hayama) 20

23 Step 5: Final Proposal Cross linkages of 43 NGDP outcome-level indicators with strategic objective 2 Reference: Typology mapping based on IGES research report (Zhou and Moinuddin, 2016, Sustainable Development Goals, Targets Indicators: Linkages and holistic sustainability, to be available in June 2016, IGES, Hayama) 20

24 Step 5: Final Proposal Cross linkages of 43 NGDP outcome-level indicators with strategic objective 3 Reference: Typology mapping based on IGES research report (Zhou and Moinuddin, 2016, Sustainable Development Goals, Targets Indicators: Linkages and holistic sustainability, to be available in June 2016, IGES, Hayama) 20

25 Step 5: Final Proposal Cross linkages of 43 NGDP outcome-level indicators with strategic objective 4 Reference: Typology mapping based on IGES research report (Zhou and Moinuddin, 2016, Sustainable Development Goals, Targets Indicators: Linkages and holistic sustainability, to be available in June 2016, IGES, Hayama) 20

26 Step 5: Final Proposal Cross linkages of 43 NGDP outcome-level indicators with strategic objective 5 Reference: Typology mapping based on IGES research report (Zhou and Moinuddin, 2016, Sustainable Development Goals, Targets Indicators: Linkages and holistic sustainability, to be available in June 2016, IGES, Hayama) 20

27 Step 5: Final Proposal Cross linkages of 43 NGDP outcome-level indicators with strategic objective 6 Reference: Typology mapping based on IGES research report (Zhou and Moinuddin, 2016, Sustainable Development Goals, Targets Indicators: Linkages and holistic sustainability, to be available in June 2016, IGES, Hayama) 20

28 Step 5: Final Proposal 17 NGDP outcome-level indicators linking to a single strategic objective Reference: Typology mapping based on IGES research report (Zhou and Moinuddin, 2016, Sustainable Development Goals, Targets Indicators: Linkages and holistic sustainability, to be available in June 2016, IGES, Hayama) 21

29 Step 5: Final Proposal 20 NGDP outcome-level indicators linking to 2 strategic objectives Reference: Typology mapping based on IGES research report (Zhou and Moinuddin, 2016, Sustainable Development Goals, Targets Indicators: Linkages and holistic sustainability, to be available in June 2016, IGES, Hayama) 21

30 Step 5: Final Proposal 6 NGDP outcome-level indicators linking to a 3 strategic objectives Reference: Typology mapping based on IGES research report (Zhou and Moinuddin, 2016, Sustainable Development Goals, Targets Indicators: Linkages and holistic sustainability, to be available in June 2016, IGES, Hayama) 22

31 Recommendations Setting of outcome indicators is a major opportunity to bridge NGDP to the SDGs However, one must understand that NGDP is not a policy that is designed to achieve all of the SDGs; sustainable development is a broader framework when compared to green growth NSO/MEGDT must lead the process of making one final review of the 43 indicators, to come up with a fully trackable list to be used for measuring progress of the NGDP phase 1 Periodic review and revision of the indicator set is important to increase its comprehensiveness, and capture the dynamics of the green development progress in Mongolia The study demonstrates the need for Mongolia to improve the comprehensiveness of national statistics, by making relevant work as an integral part of NGDP implementation through proper allocation of human and financial resources The current outcome indicators may require wider consultation with stakeholders, including the business sector and civil societies 22