Strategies adapted to Climate Change in the Metropolitan Area of Hamburg

Transcription

1 The German National Project KLIMZUG-Nord Strategies adapted to Climate Change in the Metropolitan Area of Hamburg founded by: Federal Ministry of Education an Research(BMBF) Klimawandel in Regionen zukunftsfähig gestalten Dipl.-Ing. Edgar Nehlsen, (Hamburg University of Technology)

2 Outline KLIMZUG Nord in general The Institute s subprojects

3 KLIMZUG Nord Metropolitan area of Hamburg - 5,0 mio. Inhabitants - 20 municipalities - 4 federal states - population increase - Contrast between urban and rural areas

4 Project structure KLIMZUG Nord

5 KLIMZUG Nord Topics T1 Estuary River Management (4 Subprojects) Coastal Protection, Groundwater, Sedimentation, Nature Protection T2 Integrated Urban Developement (5 Subprojects) Urban Development, Innovations on Buildings, Rain Water Management T3 Sustainable Cultivated Environment (7 Subprojects) Landuse, Water Management, Nature Protection

6 KLIMZUG Nord KLIMZUG-NORD Network: 6 Universities 6 Research Institutions 11 Authorities 11 Companies Supported by the municipalities

7 KLIMZUG Nord Distinctive Features Application-oriented research Interdisciplinarity Transdisciplinarity Regional Network Elmshorn u. Umland Altes Land Wandse Wilhelmsburg Organisation in Model-Areas Lüneburger Heide

8 KLIMZUG Nord The Institute s subprojects T1.3 Adaption Needs for Coastal Protection due to Changing Climatic Conditions T1.4 Flood Protection at Tidal Tributaries of the Elbe Estuary T2.2 Adaption Process in Rainwater Management and Flood Protection T2.4 Innovation on Buildings and Infrastructure for Climate Adaption

9 The Elbe Estuary

10 The Elbe Estuary

11 The Elbe Estuary Tidal tributaries Catchments : km² (moraine) Rural area At least one medium sized town Downstream: tidal influence on 5-20 km (marsh) Intensive cultivation Federal waterway Strictly diked Storm surge barrier at the mouth

12 Flood Protection at Tidal Tributaries Flood: Inland runoff + inflow from pumping stations + storm surge Inland Runoff (HQ10 ~ max.19 m³/s) Storm Surge (ca. 30 h closure) Inflow pumping stations ~ 19,75 m³/s Sturmflut vom Feb Elbe (Pegel Cranz) Wasserstand in cmnn : : : : : : Zeit

13 Possible Consequences of Climate Change 1. Backwater effects Higher water levels in the Elbe Estuary Sea level rise Increased frequency and duration of gate closure 2. Changed inland runoff Redistribution of precipitation extreme events, dry-/ wet periods 3. Amplification of deposition trends (possible) higher sediment concentrations in the Elbe Estuary Increased sediment supply from the catchment Increased frequency and duration of gate closure Increasing Senisitvity and Risk New Strategy??? Inland runoff Krueckau Tide Elmshorn Barrier Elbe

14 Methodology Before we look into the future we should understand the system in the actual state 1. Data analyses Bathymertie (DGPS, multibeam Echosounder) Turbidity (OBS) Flow velocities (ADCP)

15 Methodology 2. Establishing a process chain of numerical models Climate Data (RCM;) Hydrology Hydrodynamics Morphodynamics REMO Ensemble A1B Precipitation Run undrifted drifted 1. x x 2. x x 3. x 15

16 Changes of Inland Runoff of the Krückau Some Results

17 Some Results Sensitivity Analysis Marked increase Slight increase MSL in m Differenz max. Wasserspiegel Bux. Hafen in m: Szenario 76_as Änderung Binnenabfluss in % +0% +10% +20% +30% +0 0,00 0,12 0,22 0,33 +0,25 0,02 0,16 0,30 0,44 +0,4 0,03 0,18 0,32 0,46 +0,8 0,06 0,21 0,34 0,48 +1,15 0,09 0,24 0,38 0,51 +1,4 0,11 0,27 0,41 0,54

18 Adaption Measures Increase Storage Capacity Barrier management Excavation of soil on the forelands New storage capacity on the hinterland Decrease Inland Runoff In the upper catchment In the marshal area 2,5 BP_I_SPW_gemessen BP_I_SPW_gemessen 2 1,5 1 0, ,5-1 -1,5

19 Adaption Measures Increase Storage Capacity Barrier management Excavation of soil on the forelands New storage capacity on the hinterland Decrease Inland Runoff In the upper catchment In the marshal area Image Value Legend mnn 15 High : Low : -20

20 Adaption Measures Increase Storage Capacity Barrier management Excavation of soil on the forelands New storage capacity on the hinterland Effectiveness (WL Reduction) ~ 1 dm ~ 2 dm Nearly endless Decrease Inland Runoff In the upper catchment In the marshal area ~ 1 dm ~ 2 dm

21 Adaption Measures Increase Storage Capacity Barrier management Excavation of soil on the forelands New storage capacity on the hinterland Decrease Inland Runoff In the upper catchment In the marshal area Stakeholder Participation

22 The Institute s subprojects T1.3 Adaption Needs for Coastal Protection due to Changing Climatic Conditions T1.4 Flood Protection at Tidal Tributaries of the Elbe Estuary T2.2 Adaption Process in Rainwater Management and Flood Protection T2.4 Innovation on Buildings and Infrastructure for Climate Adaption

23 Introduction Contents Rainwater management: Novel approach which enables the modelling of a large number of spatially distributed measures Case study in Hamburg Conclusions

24 Methodology Implementation in the semi-distributed hydrologic model KalypsoHydrology Basis Information Climate data: - Precipitation - Temperature - Evaporation GIS data: - Land use - Soil types - Sub-catchments Scenarios Climate scenarios: - Climate Model Simulations (e.g. REMO, CLM) - IPCC Scenarios (e.g. A1B, A2, B1) Urban scenario: - Future Urban Development Projections Potential assessment Adaptation measures Overlay data: - Spatial distributed adaptation measures Design parameters Elements connection

25 Methodology Water re-distribution functionality: Adaptation measures Drainage: Local scale Green Roof P > design value Cistern Swale Rill Conveyance of the exceedance Temporary storage: Sub-catchment scale Multipurpose Space

26 Methodology Land use Building of the model: - background information - adaptation measures (yellow) Hydrotops (units with homogeneous hydrological characteristics) Soil types Sub-catchments Hydrotops Overlays (SUDS)

27 Application Wandse catchment in Hamburg Wandse river: 21.5km Wandse catchment: 88km²

28 Application Scenario S3: Multiple linked SUDS Local scale SUDS: Green roofs linked with swales Sealed areas drained by swales / filter-drain systems Sub-catchment scale multipurpose spaces: Exceedance flow retained in multi-purpose spaces

29 Quantification Quantification of the adaptation strategy Peak flow reduction with Adaptation 1 Peak flow reduction with Adaptation 2

30 Quantification The novel approach enables the modelling of a water re-distribution functionality to simulate a large number of spatially distributed measures It supports the simulation of exceeding flow control The results of the application study in Hamburg showed a potential for flood mitigation by implementing multiple linked SUDS

31 The Institute s subprojects T1.3 Adaption Needs for Coastal Protection due to Changing Climatic Conditions T1.4 Flood Protection at Tidal Tributaries of the Elbe Estuary T2.2 Adaption Process in Rainwater Management and Flood Protection T2.4 Innovation on Buildings and Infrastructure for Climate Adaption

32 Application Automatically operated flood abatement systems from the company AquaStop Test Preparation Flood simulation

33 Automatically operated flood abatement systems from the company AquaStop Floating switch The system in its passive status The system in its active status Measuring the leakage rate at increasing water level