Long-Term Strategy for Regional Haze

Transcription

1 Long-Term Strategy for Regional Haze Presented to : MANE-VU Science & Policy Meeting, November 10, 2005 By: Ray Papalski, NJDEP 1

2 The Goal: The Long-term strategy must include enforceable emission limitations, compliance schedules, other measures to achieve reasonable progress goals established by States having mandatory Class I Federal areas. 2

3 Who? States with Mandatory Class I areas and, States which have emissions affecting visibility in Class I areas 3

4 Long-term strategies must contain: All measures necessary to obtain share of emission reductions needed to meet the progress goal for the area. 4

5 How? Key Quotes on Consultation in (3)(i) - States: Must consult to develop coordinated emission management strategies 5

6 Extinction Characteristics on 20% Worst Visibility Days Lye Brook 144 Mm -1 Great Gulf 140 Mm -1 Moosehorn 96 Mm -1 Acadia 110 Mm -1 Washington D.C. 242 Mm -1 Brigantine 189 Mm -1 p e rc e nt c o ntrib utio n to p a rtic le e xtinc tio n Site b SO4 b NO3 b OC b Crustalb EC Aca d ia Briga ntine Great Gulf Lye Brook Moosehorn Wa shington D.C Source:Nescaum 6

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8 Control measures to reduce emissions? CAIR OTC Regional Measures PM Non-attainment Area Measures Other MANE-VU Developed Strategies Other State Developed Strategies to meet CAA or State Requirements 8

9 Will the CAIR reductions be sufficient to reach the 2018 Milestone Goal? Assuming straight-line progress to the USEPA default natural background levels in

10 Deciview Reductions in MANE-VU Class I Areas 30.0 Deciviews Brig. Straight- Line Goal Brig. CAIR Program Acad. Straight- Line Goal 20.0 Acad. CAIR Program Baseline* * Baseline for other than Brigantine 2018 DV Goal 10

11 Deciview Reductions in MANE-VU Class I Areas Lye B. CAIR Program Deciviews Baseline* * Baseline for other than Brigantine 2018 DV Goal Lye B. Straight- Line Goal Moos. CAIR Program Moos. Straight- Line Goal 11

12 Preliminary Conclusion: More reductions will be needed beyond CAIR to meet Regional Haze Goals 12

13 CAIR (Better than BART) Proposal: July 20, 2005 USEPA proposal: emissions trading program can satisfy BART USEPA proposes States may use emission reductions required to fulfill CAA requirements other than BART - (RACT / RACM to meet Reasonable Progress Goals for NAAQS?) 13

14 BART - Non-Issue Limited Applicability Irrelevant with CAIR Implementation Timeframe Paper Requirement? 14

15 Control measures to reduce emissions? CAIR OTC Regional Measures PM Non-attainment Area Measures Other MANE-VU Developed Strategies Other State Developed Strategies to meet CAA or State Requirements 15

16 OTC Measures For Non- Attainment Areas These can be added to a better-than- BART demonstration 16

17 Classification of 8-hour Nonattainment Ozone Areas N o ve mbe r CATEGORY/CLASSIFICATION Severe 17 Los Angeles Seri ous - Riverside Co (Coachell a Valley), San Joaquin, Sacramento, CA Moderate Marginal (Greensboro, NC is an EAC) Subpart 1 (Basic) Subpart 1 EAC (Basi c) 17

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21 Control measures to reduce emissions? CAIR OTC Regional Measures PM Non-attainment Area Measures Other MANE-VU Developed Strategies Other State Developed Strategies to meet CAA or State Requirements 21

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23 PM 2.5 Implementation Rule proposes three RACT options: 100 Tons per Year (tpy) actual emissions of direct PM 2.5 or any individual precursor to PM 2.5 (VOC, NOx, SO2 or ammonia), 50 tpy actual emissions of the above, or RACT to extent needed for attainment and feasibility of control (if demonstrate attainment by Feb. 2010) 23

24 Control measures to reduce emissions? CAIR OTC Regional Measures PM Non-attainment Area Measures Other MANE-VU Developed Strategies Other State Developed Strategies to meet CAA or State Requirements 24

25 Other MANE-VU Developed Strategies Low sulfur fuel oil? Other? 25

26 Control measures to reduce emissions? CAIR OTC Regional Measures PM Non-attainment Area Measures Other MANE-VU Developed Strategies Other State Developed Strategies to meet CAA or State Requirements 26

27 Can BART be met thru RACT? RACT Determinations are required in: Ozone and PM 2.5 Non-attainment areas, On Existing Sources, Independent of attaining the standard, and Controls implemented by December,

28 Fit into the components of the Long-term strategy On-going air pollution control programs (e.g.: BART, CAIR, RACT, etc.) Construction activity mitigation, Emission limitations and schedules for compliance, Source retirement & replacement schedules, Smoke Management techniques, Enforceability, Anticipated net effect of projected emissions changes in point, area, mobile source emissions by

29 Deciview Reductions Per Pollutant Deciviews ug/m3 DV w/ Reduction in Sulfate: DV w/ Reduction in Nitrate: DV w/ Reduction in Organic Carbon: DV w/ Reduction in Elemental Carbon Concentration Sulfate Concentration Nitrate Concentration Organic Carbon Concentration Elemental Carbon % 16% 24% 32% 40% 48% 56% 64% 72% 80% 88% Percent Reduction 29

30 Conclusions / Suggestions All States must include a long-term strategy in their SIP s Need to consult on a coordinated strategy Further Sulfate Reductions beyond CAIR are needed 30

31 Conclusions / Suggestions (cont.) Will need to contain additional measures like: CAIR plus Regional Controls as defined by OTC Individual State-Defined RACT MANE-VU defined regional controls PM Non-attainment area measures Other? 31