Energy transition as a central building block of a future industrial policy Comparison and long-term energy transition scenarios

Transcription

1 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke Strategic Topic 1 of the GJETC study program: Energy transition as a central building block of a future industrial policy Comparison and long-term energy transition scenarios Based on presentations of I. Kutani(IEEJ), E. R. Weber (BEARS), K. Nomura, GJETC-meeting at 9/4/2017 Impulse presentation at the GJETC Outreach Event on the subject: German- Japanese Cooperation on the Energy Transition Strategic Insights of the German-Japanese Energy Transition Council GJETC, 16 th February 2018, Berlin

2 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 2

3 Structure of the GJETC Renowned energy experts from Japan and Germany METI JAPAN CHAIR: Masakazu Toyoda Organization Office & Scientific Secretariat: IEEJ Financing Management Full Member Experts GERMANY DBU + Mercator + Others CHAIR: Prof. Peter Hennicke Organization/Consulting: ECOS Consult Scientific Secretariat: Wuppertal Institute Jun Arima Yasumasa Fujii Claudia Kemfert Patrick Graichen Toshiharu Ikaga Koji Nomura Felix C. Matthes Miranda Schreurs Junichi Ogasawara TomihiroTaniguchi Stefan Thomas Eicke Weber Associated Members Mami Ito Hiroshi Okamoto Shinichi Sasayama Uwe Leprich Manfred Rauschen Franzjosef Schafhausen Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 3

4 Study Program of the GJETC 4 comprehensive German-Japanese studies (total of 800 pages) 10 Input papers, Topical papers Recommendations report (2018) Japan Inventory Transformation Analysis National Recommendations Germany Inventory Transformation Analysis National Recommendations Comparative Analysis Lessons Learned Transferability Dissemination Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 4

5 Consortium Organized by: Financed by: Supported by: Media Partner: Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 5

6 Mutual learning and problems to be solved Japan`s energy challenges: Minimize the risk of Earthquakes and Tsunamies (resilience) Reduce energy prices and emissions of CO 2 Guarantee reliability of supply Reduce dependence on imports Competitiveness in a global context Cost reduction of renewable energies + Efficiency First Germany`s lessons to learn from Japan: Excellent (system) technologies e.g. in the areas of electromobility, rail transport/public transport, batteries, information and communication technologies, fuel cells, hydrogen economy and impressive energy-saving campaign ( Setsuden ) Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 6

7 Absolute (G) and relative (J) Decoupling of primary energy, GDP and GHG emissions Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 7

8 Japan surpassed Germany at the global lead market for solar PV Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 8

9 -...but Japan could play a much greater role at the global lead market for wind power Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 9

10 Japan: New electricity providers (PPS) often big players by sales volumes in the household segment (Apr.-Nov. 2016) Sales volume Share under PPS Sector / Category Tokyo Gas MWh 31,8% Gas Osaka Gas MWh 13,3% Gas KDDI MWh 9,0% Mobile communication JX Energy MWh 8,2% Oil Saisan MWh 3,1% Gas Tokyu Power Supply MWh 2,7% Railway company K-opticom MWh 2,2% Subsidiary company of Kansai EPCO J:COM West MWh 2,2% Cable television Tonen General Sekiyu MWh 1,7% Oil SB Power (Softbank) MWh 1,5% Mobile communication Restliche Stromanbieter MWh ~24,5% - After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, nearly 800 PPS companies filed documentation required by law, but only 135 have actually supplied any electricity, and they held only about 9 percent of the market share at the end of fiscal 2015 (i.e., March 31, 2016). Source: Japan For Sustainability, No. 171, Nov. 2016); PPS = Power producer and supplier Source: Eigene Darstellung von Robin Goeßmann; Die Liberalisierung des japanischen Strommarktes nach dem Atomunfall von Fukushima/ Hintergründe, Auswirkungen/ Rahmenbedingungen; Masterarbeit 2017; Daten entnommen aus: METI (2017b: Internet) Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 10

11 The challenges for Japanese energy policy decrease import dependensy, energy costs and C02-emissions Source: Oba, Mayu, Energy conservtion Policy in Japan, METI/Tokyo Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 11

12 Common and different goals of the Japanese and German Energy Policy A keycontroversy: IsJapan an energypoororan energyrichcountry? Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 12

13 Different szenario methodologies reflecting different policies Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 13

14 Innovative dialogue style of research encourage mutual comments to get better peer reviewed results Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 14

15 Different status/expectations of electricity costs J: one main reason for different electricity mix Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 15

16 Unsubsidized clean energy world records 2017 a new world record for PV: 1.79 cts/kwh in Saudi Arabia! Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price: United Arab Emirates Marubeni and Jinko Solar US$ 2.42 c/kwh Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price: Morocco Enel Green Power US$ 3.0 c/kwh Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price: Germany DONG/EnBW US$ 4.9 c/kwh Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; Images Siemens; Wikimedia Commons; Masdar Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 16

17 Cost degression of PV systems ->driven by Japanese, German and Chinese market shares Source: Matthes Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 17

18 Energy Efficiency First? Expectations of efficiency increase in J lower than in G Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 18

19 Electricity mix and total generation in 2030 low efficiency increase nuclear instead of renewables? Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 19

20 Energy-related GHG-Emissions/cap ( ) too high for full decarbonization in Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 20

21 Common policy recommendations Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 21

22 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke Thank you for your attention! Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 22