Integrate low carbon and low resources perspectives by fostering decoupling!!

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1 Integrate low carbon and low resources perspectives by fostering decoupling!! Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke! e!! Comment at the Conference:! Technological pathways to low carbon: Competition and collaboration between Europe and emerging Asia! Bonn, April 7, 2014!!!

2 Unsustainable Trends: Car ownership growth potential and saturation level (2010) If China had the car density of the US and the same average fleed consumption it would need more than the current global oil supply! Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

3 Peak everything? Fostering resource productivity (e.g. recycling,circular economy) is a must! 99% of important hightech metals are thrown away after use instead of being recycled. Only 18 metals have recycling quotas above 50% Source: UNEP 2011 Source: Giljum et al 2008

4 An outdated development concept symbolized by the Kuznets Curve of environmental degradation First rich then clean? Local environmental degradation Rich and dirty Tunneling through à Leap frogging Source: Weizsäcker 2007 Poor and clean Wealth and GDP-growth Rich and clean! Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

Necessary condition for a sustainable Green Economy : Combined strategies in industrialized countries for absolute decoupling a) of quality of life from GDP (e.g. developing new models of wealth) b) of GDP from resource consumption (e.

5 Necessary condition for a sustainable Green Economy : Combined strategies in industrialized countries for absolute decoupling a) of quality of life from GDP (e.g. developing new models of wealth) b) of GDP from resource consumption (e.g. fostering resource productivity; ecoefficient production) c) of resource consumption from environmental impact (e.g. recycling/circular/green economy) More quality of life per $ GDP Economic growth Less use of nature per $ GDP Ecoefficient Production Social and Political Innovations and Sustainable Production and Consumption + Renewable resources Source: e 2009 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

6 Improvement of resource productivity India, China, Germany and global average 1980 to 2008 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

The promising cost/benefit ra3os of decoupling (McKinsey 2011) Improving resource efficiency in specific sectors is crucial to achieving economy- wide absolute decoupling Comba;ng food waste, through

7 The promising cost/benefit ra3os of decoupling (McKinsey 2011) Improving resource efficiency in specific sectors is crucial to achieving economy- wide absolute decoupling Comba;ng food waste, through e.g. educa;on and food waste preven;on campaigns Promo;ng material recycling in construc;on through e.g. a C&D landfill ban Interven;ons not only needed in resource intense sectors, e.g. service- based economies (ICT) might shie resource- intensive ac;vi;es elsewhere Ø The decoupling transi3on must provide a high standard of living to ci3zens - especially in the global South

8 Technologies for climate mitigation and decoupling are available - optimistic perspectives for sustainable energy Humanity can solve the carbon and climate problem in the first half of this century simply by scaling up what we already know to do (Pacala / Socolow 2004, Princeton University, USA). Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

100% renewable global energy in 2050 - only in combination with an efficiency revolution (WWF/Ecofys Scenario) --------à BAU In 2050, energy demand is 15 % less then in 2005; nuclear phase out; CCS

9 100% renewable global energy in only in combination with an efficiency revolution (WWF/Ecofys Scenario) à BAU In 2050, energy demand is 15 % less then in 2005; nuclear phase out; CCS after 2025/30 only marginal As far as possible electrical energy is used; bioenergy for trucks, ships, aeroplanes, industrial processes By trillion/a saved compared to BAU; around 2050 savings outweigh investments Source: WWF/Ecofys 2011 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

10 World Energy Outlook 2010: Efficiency = 50% of the solution but what about the social embeddedness of technologies? Source: IEA/OECD, 450 ppm CO2eq scenario to achieve 2 target, 2010 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

11 Revolutionary Targets (A.Merkel) of German Energy Concept How will it be implemented? Is it transferable to other countries? -80% Source: Federal German Government 9/2010 Average increase of energy productivity up to 2050: 2,1%/a Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

12 Consensus of German research institutes: A pathway to sustainable energy and decoupling is feasible and beneficial Primary energy in Germany in 2010 and in 2050 according to typical energy scenarios BMWi - Scenario II B Share of imported energy EnBW et al - Scenario 3 ca.50% BMU - Base Scenario 2010 A Greenpeace - Plan B WWF - Innovation w. CCS WWF - Innovation w/o CCS Actual energy efficiency renewable energy 47% 11% 31% 27% ca. 70% PJ Nuclear energy Hard coal Lignite Oil Natural gas Renewables Others Source: Samadi 2011, based on data from AG Energiebilanzen 2011 and scenario studies cited Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

13 Feed-in law accelerates the market of green electricity Steep learning curves and cost degression -> 100 GW of wind and PV power in 2020? Source: BMU 2012 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

14 Learning effects and cost degression 8 cts/kwh: price of PV-power in 2015 (without storage); HH pay 27cts/kWh (2013) Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

15 Reducing external damage costs of fossil electricity: 260 bn external costs can be avoided by green power up to 2030 Source: BMU 2012 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

16 Renewable energies create many domestic jobs - but only if innovation and cost-degression defend competitiveness Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

17 The economics of NegawaGs compared to MegawaGs : 2-6 cts/kwh to save electricity compared to cts/kwh to supply it! Example for Germany Source: e 2006

18 State of the art: Buildings used as power plants Plus-energy-houses in Freiburg/Germany Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

19 Increasing number of energy cooperatives in Germany 888 (1/2014)

20 Ownership of installed renewable power capacities in Germany 2010 Source: Greenpeace International 2013 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

Pathway to Carbon Free Cities The Example of Munich 2058 Blueprint for the restructuring of cities 50% of the worlds population live in cities consuming 70% of

21 Pathway to Carbon Free Cities The Example of Munich 2058 Blueprint for the restructuring of cities 50% of the worlds population live in cities consuming 70% of the energ 50% of cities in the year 2050 are still to be built The Munich Vision : Reducing CO 2 by 90% (2058) Study on behalf of Siemens AG Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

22 Key options to reduce CO 2 by 90% in Munich <- Retrofitting the building stock: - 13 bn incremental costs (PH-Standard) - 30 bn. less energy costs - 89% 2008 Buildings Transport Electricity 2058 Source: e 2009 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

23 GreenTech: System solutions supplied by lead markets to foster resource productivity, decoupling and cost reduction Six selected Lead Markets Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

24 Resource efficiency potentials in Indian manufacturing subsectors compared with Germany Source: IFEU eta al 2013 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

25 Modelling a Resource Efficient Germany : (P&M: Recycling quotas, building material tax, audits/incentives for SMEs) Integrated climate and resource protection is a win-win-strategy! The following effects result of a forced resource efficiency strategy for 2030 in relation to a reference scenario of active climate protection (GHG reduction: 54 %): n Absolute reduction of material consumption of about 20 % n Increase of GDP of about + 14,1 % n Increase in Employment of 1,9 % n Reduction of Public Dept of 11,7% (- 251 bn ) n Conclusion: 1. Absolute decoupling of TMR/GDP is possible 2. Industrial ecological policy must drive innovation 3. Reduction of resource costs increase competitiveness Source: Distelkamp / Meyer / Meyer 2010

26 : 25% less energy/raw materials per $ GDP eaten up by 82% global economic growth! The combination efficiency + sufficiency + consistency leads to sustainability Reduction of specific impacts per product/service Efficiency Rebound Effect: Efficiency gains are eaten up by increased demand Sustainaible patterns of consumption and production Sustainability Sufficiency Consistency/Resilience Source: e 2009 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

27 Combine efficiency and sufficiency policies - to reduce rebound effects and encourage life style changes! The older I get the more I like regulation (Eoin Lees, Former Head of Energy Savings Trust/ UK) System adjustments Direct: Binding energy saving targets (EU 2011/2012) Energy efficiency obligations for utilities (EU ESD 2012) Reduction of subsidies and internalizing ext. cost of nuclear/fossil fuels Caps, e.g. dynamic standards for fleet consumption of cars (EU) Bonus/malus regulations e.g. for cars ( feebates ) More ambitious targets for EU ETS Progressive standards (e.g. ICT) Ecotax Indirect: Structural change to less resource intensive sectors (i.e. services) Promotion of renewable energy in coordination with energy efficiency ProgRress (German Program Ressource Effciency) Behavioral change Sustainable consumption, promotion of common goods, education Reducing societal disparities ( e.g. income, wealth, access) Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

28 A global challenge for climate and resource protection Global share of middle class consumption India and China are key India -> India-> China-> Germany-> Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke

Perverse decoupling everywhere? Research cooperation is needed! Evidence exists that after a certain threshold rising GDP is decoupled from life satisfaction.

29 Perverse decoupling everywhere? Research cooperation is needed! Evidence exists that after a certain threshold rising GDP is decoupled from life satisfaction. What are the technical, societal and structural leap frogging options not only from the North to the South, but the other way around as well What does green growth mean? What green sectors should grow rapidly and what brown sectors should be reduced How much green growth is necessary at what development stage and what policies and measures are suitable to invert the counterproductive decoupling of GDP growth and life satisfaction?

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31 Complex strategic options, but: Combining P&M for energy and material efficiency creates many synergies Source: Allwood et al, 2011

32 German Program Resource Efficiency (ProgRess) Guiding Principles 1 For Environment & Economy 2 Global Responsibility 3 Innovation: Low Resource Economy 4 Transition: Qualitative Growth Fields of Action / Approaches Sustainable Raw Materials Supply Resource Efficient Production Resource Efficient Consumption Closed Cycle Management Overarching Instruments Raw Materials Strategy Use of Renewable Materials as Feedstock Examples/Material Flows Efficiency Advice Production & Manufacturing Processes EMAS Product Design Standardisation Awareness Raising Trade & Consumer Decisions Certification Schemes Public Procurement Mass Metals Rare Strategic Metals Construction & Living Photovoltaics, Electric mobility Green IT Product Responsibility Optimizing Recycling Prevention of Illegal Exports Annex: Stakeholders Departments, Länder, Associations, Institutions Instruments for Market Penetration Optimizing Instruments Research Legal Framework Technology & Knowledge Transfer EU / International EU - International Phosphorus Indium Gold Plastics waste Source: C. Manstein/ UBA 2012

The German Energiewende : Nuclear phase out, climate protection and the interaction between science and politics

The German Energiewende : Nuclear phase out, climate protection and the interaction between science and politics Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke e Presentation at the 4 th Meeting of the Low Carbon Society Research