Decoupling Development of Employment and Use of Nature

Transcription

1 Decoupling Development of Employment and Use of Nature Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke President Wuppertal Institute Dr. Wolfgang Irrek Project Co-ordinator Wuppertal Institute European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC) What jobs in a low carbon European economy? 21 February 2007 Wuppertal Institute Legal and financial status Established in 1991 Legal form: Ltd., Non-Profit-Organisation; Ownership: State of North Rhine-Westphalia Offices: Berlin Office and UNEP/ Wuppertal Institute Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (CSCP) Staff: 140 members from all disciplines Projects: projects per year Budget 2006: m. Euro basic funds from the state of North Rhine-Westphalia - 7 m. Euro of third party funds (UN, EU, Ministries, Private Sector, NGOs)

2 Topics Decoupling economic growth and use of nature: Urgently needed Technical and non-technical solutions to reduce CO 2 emissions: Available and beneficial from different perspectives Calculating net impact on economic activity and employment: Different macro-economic methodologies, various assumptions Some Facts and Forecasts: Use of Nature, Economic Activity and Employment: Make kilowatt hours and tons redundant and not people. Net employment benefits of change towards sustainable energy system and, in particular, of increase in resource efficiency. Improved competitiveness of sustainability oriented companies. Thesis with regard to climate mitigation The costs for future generations of no action are a factor of higher than the costs of climate mitigation (e.g. Stern Report) About 40% of CO 2 -reductions generate a net profit for society ( no regret e.g for Germany); reducing oil and gas reduces import dependency and contributes to risk minimisation Climate mitigation means an unprecedented structural change of economies; it creates new pattern of qualitative growth : efficiency and renewables grow, fossil fuels decrease Every structural change has winners and loosers. But: The net employment effect of forced efficiency increase is clearly positive - for the substitution of energy supply it depends. Trade unions face tremendous challenges: a) Historically the labour movement was the spearhead of raising living standards, now it must be the driving force for the survival of the poor on the planet b) To protect the livelihood of the poor and of future generations might conflict with today`s struggles on wages and jobs in risky businesses (fossil, nuclear) c) Jobs gained from efficiency and renewables might not be available for workers in specific regions and companies d) If trade unions are percieved as brakemen to climate mitigation this will challenge their image and role in the public (especially for the youth)

3 Decoupling Economic Growth and Use of Nature

4 The daily toll P-362e The Challenge: Absolute decoupling of quality of life from use of nature Quality of life Economic growth Use of nature Sustainable Production Sustainable Production and Consumption

5 Technical and Non-Technical Solutions To Reduce CO 2 Structural change in a sustainable German power system: Big power plants are phased out - decentralisation of new power plants would be necessary Stromerzeugung von Bestands- und Neukraftwerken bis 2050 Power Generation from existing and new power stations until 2050 Sustainability Scenario - Szenario NACHHALTIGKEIT - Gross energy generation, [TWh/a] Bruttostromerzeugung, [TWh/a]500 REG für Wasserstoff REN for hydrogen REG-Import REN import REG-Inland alt REN + neu domestic, old & new KWK Biomasse Neubau CHP biomass, new KWK fossil, Neubau CHP fossil, new Kond.KW, fossil Neubau Cond. CHP, fossil, new Erdgas/Öl Bestand Existing gas/oil REN for hydrogen Steinkohle Bestand Existing hard coal REN import Braunkohle Bestand Existing lignite REN domestic, old & new Kernenergie Nuclear Power CHP biomass, new uba-2\zubau01.pre;

6 Development of renewable energies in Germany Development of renewables in Germany: More dynamic than expected! AUSBAU (Bandbreite) Stromerzeugung in TWh REF nach Energiereport IV (2005) 39 REF Anlagenanleistung in MWel Anlagen > 500 kwel Anlagen 70 < 500 kwel Anlagen < 70 kwel Biogas-Technologie Dez 1999 Dez 2000 Dez 2001 Dez 2002 Dez 2003 Dez 2004 Dez 2005 Wasser Wind Onshore Wind Offshore Biomasse, biog. Abfälle Fotovoltaik Geothermie Europ. Verbund oeko/projekt2020/str20var;

7 It is possible to decouple growth and environmental burden European Lifestyle :The scope for different consumption patterns to reduce CO 2 in EU 25 (WI 2007)

8 Calculating Net Impact of Any Structural Change on Economic Activity and Employment Different macro-economic methodologies to calculate employment impacts Input-output models: Impacts on all production levels, considering inter-industry relations in an economy Multiplier analysis: Income effects General equilibrium models: Impacts due to factor price changes Static / dynamic models Results depend on assumptions with regard to the employment effects considered (gross/net; with/without export; direct/indirect) the system boundaries chosen (only quantifiable effects, time horizon, region) the degree of detailedness in value-added chain modelling of dynamics: development of, e. g., volumes, costs, interest rates, prices, price elasticities

9 Some Facts and Forecasts: Use of Nature, Economic Activity and Employment Decreasing jobs (- 35.7%) - but increasing energy sales (+18.3% PJ) of German utilities ( ) Source: German Federal Statistical Office The impact of Cost pressure from competition and liberalisation Mergers and technical restructuring Shareholders pressure (budget crisis of municipalities; financial markets)

10 Replacements of centralized power plants don t create more jobs: Much lower number of jobs in new fossil power plants Average number of jobs in an old 600 MW coal-fired power plant: VGB study on model coal-fired power plant in the State of North Rhine-Westphalia RKW NRW - reference case of a new coal-fired power plant [600 MW el.] New gas-fired power plant [800 MW el.] IGCC reference case [600 MW el.] Employees / year during operation Municipality of Wiesbaden, Germany Employees / year during operation New coal-fired power plant [750 MW el.] 100 New decentralised co-generation [750 MW el.] 375 Economic and job impacts of a German sustainable energy system (80% CO 2 -reduction; nuclear phase out by 2025) Additional cost (cumulative: 2000 to 2050; compared to reference case) 201 billion Euro Annual additional cost in average 3.8 billion Euro/a Additional costs per capita 48 Euro/capita/a significant (net) employment effects (change of jobs): - renewable energies: + 250,000 to 350,000 - building industry: + 85,000 to 200,000 - coal and nuclear industry: - 100,000

11 The turnover in the environment sector multiplies by six - displacing the car market as leading industry Environment protection creates new employment

12 Does energy efficiency create jobs? - Clear evidence Rule of thumb for net impact based on results from several studies in Germany: about 100 person-years / PJ end-use energy saved Impact on employment by increasing material and energy efficiency through integrated environmental technology Possible negative effects: Possible positive effects: for suppliers and operators of end of pipe - technology for producers of raw materials and energy for suppliers of investment goods for energy and feedstock industry because of rationalisation in the course of introduction of energyefficient / raw material-efficient integrated environmental technology for service suppliers (e. g., consulting, financing, performance contracting) for suppliers of energy-efficient and raw material-efficienct technology Increased added value with ecological products (e. g., organic products) new steps of adding value (recycling) cost savings / alternative use of disposable means of finance increased competitiveness and qualitative growth Net impact: Positive impact on economic and employment with productivity-oriented wage increase

13 10% cost reduction in social contributions and non-wage labour costs: 0.4% reduction in total costs... personnel costs: 1.8% reduction in total costs... energy costs: 0.15% reduction in total costs... material costs: 5% reduction in total costs Source: K. Dosch, Aachener Stiftung 2006 Materials are a Central Factor in the Life-Cycle Costs of Industrial Products. Cutting these Costs Increases Competitiveness and Growth Cost types in % of total costs of manufacturing industries* 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Materials & Energy Personnel Other Costs Depreciation/ Rent Cost Factor: Materials & Energy Material costs: 51% of total costs of industry. Materials throughput causes a further 21%. Starting point: Impulse programme Materials Efficiency Factor 2-3 : 1 Cost Factor: Personnel Personnel costs: 23% of total costs of industry. Starting point: Agenda 2010 * Federal Statistical Office, Cost Structure of Manufacturing Industries, 1999 Source: Fischer, ADL, 2003

14 Assessment of the competitive situation of German companies in the last two years (in %) Sustainability oriented companies Environmental management oriented companies Passive companies improved worsened Thesis Fostering resource productivity: A new paradigm of sustainable technical progress Make kilowatt hours and tons redundant and not people!

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