Sustainable biomass potential for food, feed, bio-based materials, bioenergy and biofuels

Transcription

1 Sustainable biomass potential for food, feed, bio-based materials, bioenergy and biofuels A global analysis of biomass supply and demand by 2050 ESPOO, 9 May 2017 Michael Carus, Managing Director nova-institut GmbH, Hürth (Cologne), Germany 1

2 The nova-paper is available at 1,900 downloads 2

3 Background and methodology This study has been carried out for the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) and the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWI). Further scenarios have been developed for the 4 th SCAR Foresight Exercise (Mathijs et al. 2015). We can easily model YOUR scenarios too. 2011: Biomass supply by type in tonnes dry matter Biomass demand by sectors Challenge is matching both! Nobody tried this before (as far we know) Scenarios for supply and demand in 2050: Simple calculation model Solid and confirmed (and transparent) data and assumptions Based on 100 parameters on supply and demand 3

4 Global biomass supply 2011 Total biomass (2011) In total, global biomass supply amounted to about 12 bln tdm in 2011: 4

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7 Explorative biomass supply scenarios for 2050 Low: Very moderate development in terms of agricultural intensification and land use changes No significant changes in the area and composition of forests BAU: Business-as-usual, in principle an extrapolation of current trends (yields, MCI etc.) Current trend of deforestation continues until 2030 and then comes to a halt as internationally declared (Council of the European Union 2009) Trend of increasing area of planted forest continues until 2050 High: Demand-driven, very high intensification of agriculture and concurrent land use changes, incl. more intensive forestry and expansion of planted forests We can model any different scenario easily too! 7

8 Area development until 2050 For the BAU-scenario, we assume a gross expansion of agricultural land of 435 mln ha until 2050: Source: Based on Fischer et al This gross expansion of agricultural land is partly counteracted by concurrent land degradation (- 400 mln ha). Finally, we assume deforestation to continue until This results in an additional increase of agricultural land of 100 mln ha. These effects lead to a net expansion of agricultural land of 135 mln ha. 8

9 Scenario assumptions for land cover changes Global land cover in Billion ha Low 2050 BAU 2050 High Agricultural area Arable land Land for permanent crops Permanent meadows and pastures Forest area Primary forest Other naturally regenerated forest Planted forest Other land Deserts and barren land Ice and cold deserts Coastal fringes Wetland Urban/built up land

10 Summary of assumptions for global biomass supply in 2050 Furthermore, we assume crop shares as in 2011, except for cotton; here we assume a stagnation of areas 10

11 Scenario results for biomass supply 11

12 Low: BAU: Bio-based: Explorative biomass demand scenarios for 2050 Demand matches Low supply scenario Demand matches BAU supply scenario As BAU, but with stronger demand growth for the material use of biomass, bioenergy and biofuels Bio-based High: As Bio-based, but with very high demand for biomass in the chemical industry High growth low pressure: Demand is the same as in the Bio-based High scenario, but the demand is less covered by biomass but by other renewables and especially solar energy. In all scenarios we assumed the following Compound Annual Growth Rates : Chemical and plastics industry: CAGR = 3.5% Textile industry: CAGR = 3% Energy/fuels: CAGR = 1.5% 12

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15 Scenario results for biomass demand 15

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17 Food security When it comes to the oftencriticised negative impact on food security of first generation biofuels, the evidence points into a different direction. The competition for arable land is counterbalanced by the excellent land efficiency of first generation crops (especially sugar beet) and protein-rich coproducts (especially wheat and corn). And food crops can serve as an emergency reserve in a food crisis. Download: /policy 17

18 Overall availability of food and feed 18

19 Overall availability of food and feed 19

20 Different strategies for more biomass Focus on second generation feedstocks (lignocellulosics) low efficiency, huge land demand (biodiversity?) Focus on biowaste utilization availability, traceability? Using marginal land for industrial crops low yields and nature protection, biodiversity Closing the yield gap huge potential, especially for food crops Precision farming: less input, more output, lower environmental impacts very promising High intensive agriculture with high yields on the best land other land back to nature supported by many scientists New kind of biomass and arable land (marine biomass, greening the desert, urban farming) limited volume Direct CO 2 utilization Solar fuels and chemicals? 20

21 Headline Title Text o More text Even more text 21

22 Global distribution of the yearly solar radiation Average solar energy ɛ m per year and per m 2 : ɛ Source: Giesen

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24 Increasing PV efficiency Commercial records 2016 Solarworld (Germany) PERC-cells: 21% Sunpower (USA) PV module X22: 22.8% Panasonic (Japan) PV module Hit: 23.8% minimum today: 10% PV Range: 10 20% Power-to-liquid efficiency: about 70% Solar-to-liquid Range: 7 14% 24

25 Total surface of the earth 510,000,000 km % Oceans 360,570,000 km 2 70,7 % Global land area 149,430,000 km 2 29,3 % Agricultural area 48,827,330 km 2 Forest 40,204,320 km 2 Desert area 27,500,000 km 2 Desert Sahara 8,700,000 km 2 Australian desert 1,560,000 km 2 Arabian desert 1,300,000 km 2 Desert Gobi 1,040,000 km 2 Area to cover the total global energy demand (electricity, heat & transport) in 2015 with PV (10% efficiency) Source: Giesen 2015, nova 2015 Comparison of areas 670,000 km % of the total surface 0.44 % of the global land area 1 2 % of the total desert area

26 Solar energy in average 85 times more land efficient than bioenergy, CCU fuels (with 50% efficiency) 40 times more land efficient than bioenergy! 26

27 Searchinger et al

28 Thank you for your attention! 28