ICEAA International Symposium. Bristol, October Joachim Schöffer. The way from a parametric estimate to a CAD-driven calculation

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Spencer Chambers
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1 ICEAA International Symposium Bristol, October Joachim Schöffer

2 It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change! Charles Darwin

3 Initial situation 100% Relevant decisions 5% Product cost defined by concept Changes are possible but require intensive work / cost Basically no changes possible Idea/concept Development Analogies Epert estimates Regression Parametric Design Production Assembly and test Bottom-up / Detailed calculation In use

4 Main requirements Purchasing departmant: 1. Identify potentials quickly 2. Negotiate on the basis of detailed workplans

5 Main requirements Development department: 1. Value technical alternatives in early phases 2. Calculate detailed cost scenarios based on detailed designs

6 Main requirements Sales/Marketing department: 1. Budgeting and setting targets 2. Negotiate detailed cost breakdowns

Basically no changes possible Idea/concept Development Design Production

7 Dielmma of product life cycle 100% Relevant decisions Product cost defined by concept Changes are possible but require intensive work / cost 5% Basically no changes possible Idea/concept Development Design Production Assembly and test In use Few inputs No details Very detailed Plenty of knowledge

8 Situation -> Task Accuracy Greenfield Bottom-up Parametric Greenfield? Bottom-up Regression analysis Epert Estimation Effort

9 Transition (classical parametric to CAD-driven bottom-up) Parametric Semi-bottom-up Detailed CAD-driven

10 Step 1: Multidim. CER for analysing 3D-CAD-Models CER = f(#sub Shapes #sig. Points #Components #Solids #Shells #Wires )

11 Step 2: Transition (classic parametric -> semi bottom-up) Detailing the parameters (Submodel): Compleity = f (quality, scrap, precision, learning curve, stable mfgprocesses, machinability, additional processes )

12 Step 3: Transition (parametric -> CAD-driven calculation WBS (Parametric) Detailed Working plan (Bottom-up) CAD Import Feature recognition

13 Step 4: Detailed parameters for process calculation Detailed process plan

14 Transition

15 Result Purchasing departmant: 1. Identify potentials quickly 2. Negotiate on the basis of detailed workplans Development department: 1. Value technical alternatives in early phases 2. Calculate detailed cost scenarios based on detailed designs Sales/Marketing department: 1. Budgeting and setting targets 2. Negotiate detailed cost breakdowns

16 Result Accuracy Greenfield Bottom-up Parametric Greenfield? Bottom-up Regression analysis Epert Estimation Effort

17 Result 100% Relevant decisions Product cost defined by concept Changes are possible but require intensive work / cost 5% Basically no changes possible Idea/concept Development Design Production Assembly and test In use Few inputs No details Very detailed Plenty of knowledge

18 Outlook Net steps: 1. Additional basic processes (forging, sheetmetal, electronics ) 2. Automate the working plan generation 3. Learning algorithm to suggest best-in-class calculation

19 Thank you for your attention Joachim Schöffer

20 Backup

21 4cost GmbH Intro 4cost Module summary 4cost GmbH 4cost-Institut 4cost-Software 4cost-Services Training / ReFIT 4cost-suite Workshops Studies Applications Value- Engineering

22 Warum 4cost Intro 4cost Module summary Using 4cost models optimizes timeline and product quality

23 Die integrierte Methode Intro 4cost Module summary

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