Bird Strike Risk Analysis ACRP Report 125 ACI Fri, 1/13/17. Paul Esposito, CIH, CSP STAR Consultants, Inc.

Transcription

1 Bird Strike Risk Analysis ACRP Report 125 ACI Fri, 1/13/17 Paul Esposito, CIH, CSP STAR Consultants, Inc.

2 STAR > Overview STAR has been in business since 1997 Safety Through Accountability and Recognition STAR specialized is Culture Management Systems Risk Assessments Leading Metrics Strategic Planning HSE Coaching Paul Esposito is a CIH and CSP, with over 35 years of experience. Mr. Esposito has been a VP with ESIS, a global leader in HSE Consulting worldwide, leading their Management Systems and Assessments Practice. 2

3 Session Content Designing Risk Assessments with Multiple Severity and Likelihood (Risk) Factors Integrating Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Bow-Tie Analysis Designing a User Friendly Risk Assessment Tool 3

4 Background FAA s Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) Project Report 125 Balancing Airport Stormwater and Bird Hazard Management Bird Strike Analysis and Stormwater Management Decision Tool 4

5 Team STAR Consultants, Inc. Environmental Resource Solutions Gresham, Smith and Partners ESIS, Inc. 5

6 Problem Statement Birds are attracted to bodies of water (specifically storm water in this case) Bird proximity can be hazardous to airplane operations Bird mass is a critical risk factor Stormwater management options can minimize this risk 6

7 Approach Research bird strike data Research stormwater management options and their effect on bird populations Develop a risk matrix, with multiple Severity and Likelihood factors Use safety management system concepts Case study testing Review panel vetting Design and publication A risk-based planning tool for evaluating stormwater options to balance the risk of bird strikes 7

8 Birds Strikes and Airplanes 1 accident resulting in human death in one billion (109) flying hours. The majority of bird strikes (65%) cause little damage to the aircraft; However the collision is usually fatal to the bird(s) involved Annual damages that have been estimated at $400 million within the United States of America alone (FAA) and Flight up to $1.2 billion to commercial aircraft worldwide Over 200 worldwide deaths since 1988 (FAA) 1549 Typically low altitude, during take off and landing 90%, ICAO Jet engine ingestion is extremely serious Body Density of the bird(s); major influencer of damage caused 8

9 Typical Countermeasures Stormwater Design Wildlife Management Flight Path 9

10 Primary Stormwater Features Water exposure Draw down Enclosed? Geometry Perimeter irregularity Slope to water s edge Length to width ratio Location Proximity to each other Proximity to runway (airport movement areas) Vegetation Coverage Species Monoculture Not all birds are influenced by stormwater features 10

11 Primary Wildlife Management Wildlife Countermeasures Continuous vs upon sighting Administrative vs engineering Administrative Active shootings, signage, inspections, etc. Engineering lethal capture, Falconry, Pyrotechnics, etc. Seasonal Variations Not all countermeasures are as effective. 11

12 Relocating the Flight Path Certainly a more long term solution Not part of this analysis or software 12

13 Session Content Designing Risk Assessments with Multiple Severity and Likelihood (Risk) Factors Integrating Bow-Tie Analysis Designing a User Friendly Risk Assessment Tool 13

14 Severity or Consequence Bird volume / mass attracted Mass by adverse effects Stormwater feature Perimeter irregularity Slope to water s edge Proximity Vegetation cover Each have their own Severity Level definitions Severity Level Negligible Minor Major Hazardous Catastrophic Weighted Hazard Ranking 1 1 DeVault, et al Example Blackbird Egret Gull Pelican Geese 14

15 Likelihood History of Observations Proximity of Bird Sightings Airport strikes by species Total Bird Strikes per flight, per nat avg. Proximity of SWF to Runway (movement area) Likelihood Level Improbable - 1 Extremely Remote 2 Remote 3 Probable 4 Frequent - 5 Example < 5 % 5-10 % 10-50% % > 75% 15

16 Risk Matrix 5X5 Matrix with: 5 Severity Factors and 4 Likelihood Factors High 15 Moderate > 5 < 15 Low 5 16

17 Project Specific Risk Matrix Multiple Severity and Likelihood Risk Factors 17

18 Selection 0 10 weighting Weighting Factors Ex: Species hazard ranking = 10 Ex: history of observations = 2 Ex: history of strikes = 1 Defaults can be modified, based on confidence in data (except for species hazard ranking) Species Perimeter Slope Proximity Vegetatio n Canadian Goose Severity Rating <1.1 2:1 < 1.25 mi 100% 3.29 out of 5 Level Weight Totals

19 Data Confidence Data Confidence Influenced the Weightings 19

20 Data 5 Steps 1- Bird Observation Existing Stormwater Characteristi cs Additional Mitigation options Stormwater Change Options Comparisons! 2- Likelihood Data 3- Existing Mitigations 20

21 Session Content Designing Risk Assessments with Multiple Severity and Likelihood (Risk) Factors Integrating Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Bow-Tie Analysis Designing a User Friendly Risk Assessment Tool 21

22 Bow Tie Analysis Residual (reduced) Risk Hazard Control Event (loss of control) Severity Mitigations Likelihood Mitigations 22

23 FMEA Failure Modes and Effects Analysis Detectability and or reliability of controls Hierarchy of Controls Elimination and Substitution is more effective and preferred Engineering controls are next (controls energy source of harm from the person or item being damaged) Administrative controls are generally less effective and Personal Protective Equipment: harm still reaches the person or object, but is shielded or mitigated. 23

24 Hierarchy of Controls > Bird Mitigation Options Engineering Harassment (e.g., dogs, falconry) Toxicants; fumigants Anti-perching devices adjacent to stormwater Capture and lethally take Lethal take (shooting) Install wire grid across/around pond Alter mowing regime Capture (trap) and relocate Dead bird effigies Install bird balls Pyrotechniques Nest destruction Warnings Bioacoustics (distress calls) Propane cannons Vehicle Harassment Visual deterrents Warnings from ATC Other N/A 24

25 Single Mitigation Multiple Ongoing Mitigations Mitigation Strategy Engineering Warnings Reduces the Likelihood by 1 point if the mitigation measure is ongoing, and by 0.25 points if it is upon sighting only. Reduces the Likelihood by 1.25 points if the mitigation measure is ongoing Reduces the Likelihood by 0.1 point if the mitigation measure is ongoing, and by 0.07 point if it is upon sighting only. Reduces the Likelihood by point if the mitigation measure is ongoing. In part based on ANSI B11.0, Table 3: Hazard Control Hierarchy 25

26 Risk Factors and Priority Impacts Factors influence risk at different levels. Risk Factors Both Severity and Likelihood Factors Priority Impacts Modify Severity and Likelihood 26

27 Factor Examples The primary influence of Severity is the % of vegetation. Scale 1-5 Priority Impacts either decrease or increase risk factors (6 Severity Impacts) 0.1 change each. 27

28 Potential Storm Water Changes Storm Water Changes are called BMP Initial and proposed options: data fields Perimeter irregularity are auto-calculated 28

29 Session Content Designing Risk Assessments with Multiple Severity and Likelihood (Risk) Factors Integrating Bow-Tie Analysis Designing a User Friendly Risk Assessment Tool 29

30 User Friendly Design Our Requirement: Simple Excel Tool Back Stage Risk Matrix Calculations - hidden Intro Page with direct link boxes Each of the 5 steps Pull down instructions and explanations Color coding data entry Math calculations automated. 30

31 START Page With Links Step by Step with Links Color Code Match 31

32 Top of Page Links 32

33 Pull Down Instructions Pull downs will pop up and provide direction and explanations 33

34 Comparisons A scorecard was used to communicate comparative risk based on Additional mitigations (BMP Options) Bird Mitigations and Stormwater Mitigations 34

35 Users Determine mitigation strategies that offer a better opportunity for reduction of bird strikes based on storm water design. 35

36 Session Content Designing Risk Assessments with Multiple Severity and Likelihood (Risk) Factors Integrating Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Bow-Tie Analysis Designing a User Friendly Risk Assessment Tool 36

37 References Allan, John R.; Alex P. Orosz ( ). "The costs of birdstrikes to commercial aviation". of Nebraska. Retrieved ACRP Report 125. Published by ACRP Airport Cooperative Research Program ANSI B

38 Thank You Paul Esposito, CIH, CSP STAR Consultants, Inc tants.net