2010 Arkansas State Wildlife Grant Pre-proposal

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1 Title of Project: Climate Change in Montane Environments: Assessing Salamander Risk Using Physiology and Fine-scale Environmental Modeling. Project Summary: Climate change is perhaps the most critical threat to biodiversity worldwide. Understanding the potential impact climate change on species has been hampered by the availability of predicted changes in finescale, near surface climatic conditions. This research will generate such data sets for the Ouachita Mountains ecoregion and use this information to predict the potential impact of climate change on four SGCN; these data will also be critical to studies of any SGCN in the ecoregion. In addition, permanent sites will be established for long-term population monitoring. Name of Project Leader and Job Title: Dr. Matthew E. Gifford, Assistant Professor Affiliation: University of Arkansas at Little Rock Physical Mailing Address: Department of Biology, University of Arkansas at Little Rock, 2801 University Avenue, Little Rock, AR Telephone and Fax Numbers: ; Project Partners: Kelly Irwin, State Herpetologist, Arkansas Game & Fish Commission, 915 E. Sevier St., Benton, AR 72015, x16. Total Amount of Project Cost: $115,096 Total Amount of SWG Money Requested (65%): $74,617 Amount and Source of Matching Funds or Inkind Services (35%): $40,479 M. E. Gifford 1

2 Need: This pre-proposal addresses the first priority listed in Attachment A of the 2010 State Wildlife Grant RFP (Determine the effects of climate change on Species of Greatest Conservation Need (SGCN) in Arkansas). Global climate change is perhaps the single most critical threat to biodiversity. Broad-scale models have been developed that predict changes to atmospheric conditions over the next several decades. However, these current models suffer from significant sources of uncertainty across a range of spatial and temporal scales (Millar et al. 2007, Morin & Thuiller 2009). Chief among these stems from the fact that terrestrial organisms do not interact directly with the atmosphere; but instead they respond to microenvironmental conditions near the ground. The deviation of microclimatic conditions from atmospheric conditions is particularly acute in forested mountain regions, where the factors that most influence local site conditions (e.g., local topography, soil texture and moisture, and vegetation cover) vary at meso- to micro-scales (< 1000 meters). The influence of these factors on near-ground microclimates can be substantial. For example, below-canopy temperatures at different sites separated by less than 500 meters in Great Smoky Mountains National Park can vary by more than 4 C after accounting for differences in elevation (Fridley 2009). This difference is similar to the average July temperature differential between New Orleans, LA and St. Louis, MO, cities separated by 1000 km. Therefore, accurate prediction of the magnitude and spatial distribution of near-ground climate change in mountainous regions is needed to adequately assess potential biotic responses to these changes. We propose to generate fine-scale spatial maps of near-ground (~1 meter) temperature at a resolution of 30 meters for the Ouachita Mountains Ecoregion of Arkansas. This model of current microclimatic conditions will serve as a framework for generating fine-scale maps of predicted micro-climates for two future time periods (2050 and 2100) under two different emissions scenarios (high [A1F1] and low [B1]; IPCC 2007). We will use these thermal maps to predict the impact of climate warming on the distributions of four SGCN (Plethodon caddoensis, P. fourchensis, P. kiamichi, and P. ouachitae) using models of salamander bioenergetics that the PI has developed (Gifford & Kozak, in review). Finally, we will establish sites for long-term capture-mark-recapture monitoring of each species. Objectives: 1. Develop fine-scale, spatially explicit GIS maps of environmental variation (air and soil temperature, soil moisture) 2. Use model from Objective 1 to generate future temperature maps under two different CO2 emissions scenarios. 3. Measure thermal sensitivity of physiological traits to parameterize bioenergetic model (energy budget) 4. Estimate projected change to salamander distributions under future climate warming scenarios 5. Assess risk based on change in the distribution of suitable thermal habitat 6. Establish permanent long-term monitoring sites for each species Expected Results and Benefits: This project will generate spatially-explicit fine-scale environmental maps (30 m) for current and future microclimatic conditions projected under two different emissions scenarios. These climate models will be useful to any biologist working in the region and will benefit studies of all Species of Greatest Conservation Need (SGCN) in the Ouachita Mountains Ecoregion. This approach to environmental modeling will also serve as a template that can be expanded to other mountainous ecoregions of the state (i.e., Boston Mountains and Ozark Highlands). An additional benefit of this study is the establishment of long-term monitoring sites for four regionally endemic salamander species (Plethodon caddoensis, P. fourchensis, P. kiamichi, and P. ouachitae), each of which is a SGCN, and all rank in the top ten for amphibians in priority score in the Arkansas Wildlife Action Plan. Results of this research will appear in reports to the Arkansas Game & Fish Commission, in peer-reviewed articles, and in seminars and conference presentations. Funding from the SWG program will also provide training and financial support for a graduate student under Gifford s direction at UALR. Methods / Approach: M. E. Gifford 2

3 Environmental sensor network. A network of environmental sensors will be deployed across major ranges of the Ouachita Mountains. A portion of the sensors will be used as modeling sensors focused in two mountain ranges (Rich Mountain, Caddo Mountain) and a portion for model validation (evenly spread across Fourche Mountain, Black Fork Mountain, Round Mountain, Cossatot Mountain, and Mount Magazine). Modeling sensors will be placed in two watersheds with different slope aspects (one northfacing and one south-facing). Within each watershed sensors will be arrayed along four stream to ridge transects stratified by two elevation bands. Thus, each elevation band will contain two stream to ridge transects on opposing slope aspects. Each transect will be composed of five evenly spaced sites. Each site will contain a temperature sensor mounted one meter above the ground on the north side of a tree trunk. At a subset of sites along each transect (1 st, 3 rd, and 5 th ), air temperature sensors will be coupled with soil moisture sensors and additional temperature sensors to monitor soil temperature. In all, the environmental modeling network will contain 80 air temperature sensors and 48 soil moisture and soil temperature sensors. The validation network will be evenly spread across five additional mountain ranges in the Ouachitas. Within each we will deploy eight air temperature and five soil moisture and soil temperature sensors. This validation network will be used to test modeled microclimatic conditions for the entire Ouachita Mountains EcoRegion in Arkansas. The network will be maintained in perpetuity as funding permits. Fine-scale environmental modeling and validation. Highresolution microclimate models will be constructed based on landscape- and remote sensing-based GIS data. The overall strategy, illustrated in Fig. 1, is to use daily, low-resolution, above-canopy temperature and precipitation estimates (synoptic data), which are then filtered through a highresolution (30 m), below-canopy landscape model of coupled temperature (minimum and maximum), solar radiation, and surface soil submodels, which are parameterized with daily sensor data in a sophisticated statistical approach known as hierarchical Bayesian computation (HBC). Once this model is validated using landscape data from the validation network, the estimated parameters are then used to generate daily microclimate estimates for the entire Ouachita Mountains Ecoregion. The second step is to use this model with future low-resolution climate data for the region to produce similarly downscaled maps of future microclimates for the Ouachita Mountains Ecoregion. Salamander bioenergetics and climate change. Maps generated from the modeling effort will serve as input to a model of salamander bioenergetics. Salamanders are very sensitive to environmental conditions (especially Fig. 1. Modeling strategy for generating current (Step 1) and future (Step 2) microclimate estimates for the Ouachita Mountains EcoRegion of Arkansas. Coursescale regional data are filtered through a landscape model to generate high resolution temperature and soil moisture estimates. temperature and moisture) and, because of this, are considered bioindicators of climate change. The lead investigator (M.E. Gifford) has developed a model to predict salamander species distributions based on morphology (i.e., body size) and physiological measurements (Gifford & Kozak, in review). Physiological measurements will be performed in Gifford s laboratory at UALR and include the thermal sensitivity of metabolic rates, foraging rates, and water loss rates. Species will not persist in places where their energetic costs exceed energy consumption. Thus, armed with fine-scale maps of current and future temperature and soil moisture we can produce maps of the predicted distributions of salamander species under current climatic conditions and under predicted future conditions. These two sets of model predictions will then be used to quantify species risk to climate change based on the relative predicted change in species distributions. Field abundance and population monitoring. An additional focus of this work will be to establish permanent long-term monitoring sites for all four salamander species addressed in this proposal. M. E. Gifford 3

4 Monitoring sites will be visited a minimum of six times per year in conjunction with the collection of microclimate data from environmental sensors. During each visit we will employ two monitoring strategies, linear transect counts and area-constrained searches. For each animal encountered we will record sex, body size (SVL and mass), and body temperature. We will also permanently mark each individual with unique Visual Implant Elastomer tags (VIE, Northwest Marine Technology, Inc. Washington, USA) to quantify recaptures for estimation of population sizes. Once established, these sites will be visited annually to monitor any changes in population parameters. Literature Cited: Fridley, J.D Downscaling climate over complex terrain: high fine-scale spatial variation of near-ground temperatures in a montane forested landscape (Great Smoky Mountains, USA). Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 48: Gifford, M.E. and Kozak, K.H. (In review) What drives montane endemism; competition, physiological limitation, or both? A test using southern Appalachian salamanders. Journal of Animal Ecology. IPCC Summary for policy makers fourth assessment report, Working Group 1: The Physical Basis of Climate Change. Cambridge, UK. Millar, C.I., Stephenson, N.L., and Stephens, S.L Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty. Ecological Applications 17: Morin, X. and Thuiller, W Comparing niche- and process-based models to reduce prediction uncertainty in species range shifts under climate change. Ecology 90: AGFC Budget (65%): Salaries and Fringe: PI (1% of annual salary + 26%) $ MS Student (2 $13,000/yr) $ Fringe 1%, 26%) $ Supplies (Field): Temperature loggers (ibutton) $ Soil Moisture loggers (HOBO) $ Visual Implant Elastomer kit $ Supplies (Lab): Miscellaneous Lab Supplies $ Travel: Mileage (0.45 per mile) $ Meals & lodging $ Total Direct Cost $ Indirect Cost (10% SWG allowed) $ Tuition ($5500/yr for 2 years) $ Total Direct and Indirect Cost (65% of total budget) $ UALR Match Cost (Inkind contributions, 35%): Waived Indirect cost (fed. rate [39%]-SWG rate[10%]) $ Laboratory Equipment: Laboratory computer (dedicated 100% to project) $ Micro-balance (dedicated 50% to project) $ Respirometry system & materials (dedicated 50% to project) $ Environmental chamber (dedicated 100% to project) $ UALR Match Total (35% of total budget) $ TOTAL BUDGET $ M. E. Gifford 4

5 Staff Qualifications: Project Leader: Matthew E. Gifford is an assistant professor of Biology at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock. Matt received a B.S. in Biology from Avila University, a M.S. in Biology from the University of Texas at Tyler, and a Ph.D. in Evolutionary Biology from Washington University in St. Louis. Matt conducted his postdoctoral research at the University of Minnesota. Matt s research interests focus on the influence of environmental conditions on the physiology and ecology of vertebrate ectotherms (salamanders and lizards). He has extensive experience conducting physiological and ecological research on salamanders and has developed new spatial models of salamander bioenergetics, which will be employed in the context of the proposed research. Gifford s lab at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock is well equipped for the proposed research including environmental chambers, respirometry equipment, and computational resources for GIS and statistical modeling. Project Partner: Kelly J. Irwin is the Herpetologist for the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission. Mr. Irwin received his B.S. in Natural Resource Management from Kansas State University and an M.S. in Wildlife and Fisheries Sciences from Texas A&M University. With over 35 years of field experience, his survey and conservation work on the herpetofauna of Arkansas for the past 10 years has been focused on endemic and declining amphibian populations. His knowledge of the distributions of the endemic salamander species will be indispensable to the success of the proposed research. M. E. Gifford 5