Geography and Global Environmental Change: Climate Risks and the Challenge of Development. Diana Liverman

Transcription

1 Geography and Global Environmental Change: Climate Risks and the Challenge of Development Diana Liverman University of Arizona and Oxford University 1

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3 A few simple homely services geographers can and should perform. We must deepen understanding of the basic social and life support systems of the globe and the far reaching consequences for interdependent societies of perturbing them. We must strengthen our ability to teach these things in the classroom and wherever people can be reached. And we must press to have them enter into thinking wherever policy is made. To do this in our research, in our teaching, in our communities is our obligation as members of a great human aggregation that slowly, painfully, irritably, is coming to see itself as one fractious family on one perilously changing planet. Gilbert White, Annals of the Association of American Geographers 75(1)

4 Gilbert White: Environment and Development 4

5 Reducing emissions Climate and Development Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Voluntary Carbon Offsets (VCO) and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) Adaptation Governance Research challenges Geographies of success and failure in the response to climate change 5

6 Climate after Cancun 6

7 Development Institutions and the response to climate change 7

8 Trends in Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions CO 2 emissions (PgC y -1 ) Annex B (Kyoto Protocol) Developed Nation Developing Nations Non-Annex B 57% 43% Time (y) Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; CDIAC (Global Carbon Project) 8

9 Decarbonizing development Domestic commitments to reduce emissions and carbon intensity (e.g. Mexico and China) Multilateral investments in low carbon development International offsets Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Voluntary Carbon Offsets Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) 9

10 Adaptation Quote.. 10

11 Map of vulnerability 11

12 Adaptive Risk Management Political Ecologies Climate Governance Conceptual themes 12

13 What is a carbon offset? Carbon offsetting involves purchasing credits from emission reduction projects that have prevented or removed the emission of an equivalent amount of greenhouse gas elsewhere Carbon reduction projects include energy efficiency, renewable energy, forestry, industrial gas and methane capture methane HFC 13

14 Voluntary and compliance markets World Bank, State of the Carbon Market World Bank 2009 State of the Carbon Market

15 Justification of offsets 15

16 Ethical criticisms of offsets Unethical and lazy to pay others for your carbon sins (indulgences) Offset companies are not honest about what is being sold (timing, double counting, portfolios, varying calculators) Transaction costs are too high and carbon payments are too low with unequal terms of trade (environmental colonialism) Atmosphere should not be commodified Bias to better off countries and unsustainable technologies Bumpus A. and Liverman D.M Accumulation by decarbonisation: the governance of carbon offsets. Economic Geography 84(2) Bumpus A.G. and Liverman D.M Carbon colonialism? Offsets, Greenhouse Gas Reductions and Sustainable Development. Chapter 10 in Peet, R, Robbins, P. and Watts, M. eds. Global Political Ecology. Routledge. 16

17 Environmental/technical criticisms of offsets Many projects are not environmentally additional (e.g. carbon finance subsidises projects that would happen anyway) or only slow rather than reverse GHG increases Emission reductions may not be permanent Leakage or rebound elsewhere without a global cap Greenhouse gas reductions are extremely difficult to measure (e.g. woodstoves, forests) 17

18 Development criticism of offsets The CDM check off by national governments can be cursory or self interested Communities not included in decisions Benefits often unequally distributed Projects can displace local people or limit alternatives 18

19 Research projects Tracking the international geographies of offsets (where, how much, what technology) Assessing offset projects on the ground Emission reductions (e.g. changes in fuel use, forest cover) Sustainable development benefits (e.g. surveys of household income) Honduras (Bumpus), Brazil (Cole), Mexico (Billett), Guatemala (Ley), Peru (Scriven), Mann (India) 19

20 Offset geographies Growth of total expected accumulated 2012 CERs Million CERs Afforestation & Reforestation Fuel switch Energy Efficiency CH4 reduction & Cement & Coal mine/bed Renewables HFC & N2O reduction Dec/03 Apr/04 Aug/04 Dec/04 Apr/05 Aug/05 Dec/05 Apr/06 Aug/06 Dec/06 Apr/07 Aug/07 Dec/07 Apr/08 Aug/08 Dec/08 Apr/09 Aug/09 Dec/09 Apr/10 Aug/10 Dec/10 Hultman, N., Boyd, E. Roberts J.T., Cole, J., Corbrera E., Ebeling, E., Brown K., and Liverman. D.M How Can the Clean Development Mechanism Better Contribute to Sustainable Development. Ambio, 38(2): Liverman D.M. and Boyd E The CDM, Ethics and Development. Pp in n Holm Olsen K., Fenham J. eds. A Reformed CDM. UNEP RISOE. Boyd, Emily; Nate Hultman, J. Timmons Roberts, Esteve Corbera, John Cole, Alex Bozmoski, Johannes Ebeling, Robert Tippman, Philip Mann, Katrina Brown, Diana M. Liverman Reforming the CDM for sustainable development: lessons learned and policy futures. Environmental Science and Policy. 12(7):

21 Honduras: stoves and hydro 21

22 Honduras: Community Benefits (Bumpus, A. 2010) 22

23 La Venta Wind Farms: Mexico Surveys and focus groups Involvement in construction and operation? Payments? Consultation? Information Origins of project (Billett, 2009) 23

24 Findings from offset case studies Real carbon reductions? Sustainable development benefits? Jobs, low cost energy, payments Distributional effects Technology, information, policy context, and governance are important Are offsets different from other development projects? 24

25 Forest offsets Challenges include: Measuring the forest and converting to carbon credit Ensuring funds reach local residents Fairness to countries with intact forests Can the value of standing carbon surpass value of cleared forest (biofuels, soy, timber etc)? 25

26 Forest offsets: Peru (Scriven 2010) 26

27 Climate Adaptation To what? Who pays? How much? Who manages funds? Who is eligible? Effectiveness? 27

28 Adapting to what? Four degrees and beyond.. Change in length of growing period in 2090s (Thornton et al 2010) 28

29 The problem of precipitation There are large areas of the world where climate models disagree over the direction of change in precipitation Liverman D.M Assessing Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Reflections on the Working Group II Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Global Environmental Change 18 (2008)

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31 How money is much is needed? Cost (billions per year) Assumptions World Bank (2006) 9-41 Cost of climate proofing ODA, FDI and GDI Stern (2007) 4-37 As above but with higher proportion of sensitive investments at higher cost UNDP HDR (2007) 5-67 (2015) As above plus social protection (PRS) and disaster response Oxfam (200) 50 Costs for implementing NAPAs and for NGOs UNFCCC (2007) (2030) Public and private in major sectors (not ecosystems, energy, tourism) World Bank EACC (2010) (2050) Focus on additional need for hard infrastructure IIED (2009) 300+ Include adaptation deficit, ecosystems etc. 31

32 Challenge to research The bottom line is that calculating the global cost of adaptation remains a complex problem, requiring projections of economic growth, structural change, climate change, human behavior, and government investments 40 years in the future EACC WB

33 Who should be eligible? UNFCCC particularly vulnerable All developing countries Most vulnerable Least developed Small Island Developing States and/or least developed in Africa Demonstrable incremental impact of anthropogenic climate change Those with adaptation plans : NAPA and NAP Those with low carbon growth plans Compensation for the impact of response measures 33

34 Analyzing and mapping vulnerability; Guatemala 34

35 Analyzing and mapping vulnerability: Puno 71 W 70 W 69 W 68 W 13 S 13 S $ 14 S 14 S Vulnerability Index (VulInd) 15 S 15 S Lake Titicaca 16 S 16 S 17 S 17 S Kilometers Figure 23: Vulnerability Index to Climate Change Impacts 71 W 70 W 69 W 68 W Created by E. Trigoso

36 Coping with drought in rural Mexico Factors changing vulnerability Increases in temperature and changes in seasonality of rainfall Declines and changes in government support programs (agricultural extension, credit, crop subsidies and price guarantees, food subsidies, seed and fertilizer assistance) Privatization of land and water Opening of trade (removal of maize subsidy, increase in US cereal imports, growth in input intensive fruit and vegetable exports) Growth in off farm employment Rural insecurity (politics, drugs) 36

37 Adaptation planning: Kiribati 37

38 Constructing vulnerability 38

39 Triple wins? Projects for mitigation, adaptation and poverty alleviation 39