Effects of Climate Change on the Great Lakes Region. This morning, we ll address four questions:

Transcription

1 Effects of Climate Change on the Great Lakes Region David Karowe Department of Biological Sciences Western Michigan University This morning, we ll address four questions: 1. Is climate change happening? 2. Are we causing it? 3. Will climate change have adverse impacts? 4. How can we reduce those adverse impacts? 1

2 Temperature is rising at least 10 times faster than any time in the last 800,000 years Temperature difference relative to Globally, 2016 was the hottest year in the 135-year record MI: 3 rd hottest - through August, 2017 is the 2 nd hottest year on record 2

3 Through August, 2017 is the 2 nd hottest year on record MI: 9 th hottest Globally, 2014 is now the 3 rd warmest year on record Temperature Anomaly vs but not for the Great Lake Region 3

4 Through August, 2017 is the 2 nd wettest for Michigan How do we know that current climate change is not due to natural factors? Until ~1900, all climate change was due to natural factors Have we been getting more energy from the sun? 4

5 Since 1975, while Earth has been warming fastest, energy from the sun has been decreasing Temperature Solar Irradiance Since 1900, sun and volcanoes together ( natural factors ) would have caused a slight cooling of Earth Best estimate: at least 95% of current warming is due to human activities Fossil fuel burning (CO 2 ) Deforestation 5

6 Is there any debate among scientists about whether humans are the primary cause of global warming? Most of the global warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities." Scientific organizations endorsing this statement: United States: National Academy of Sciences American Medical Association American Association for the Advancement of Science American Meteorological Society American Institute of Biological Sciences American Chemical Society American Geophysical Union American Institute of Physics National Aeronautics and Space Administration National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geological Society of America American Academy of Paediatrics American College of Preventive Medicine American Public Health Association Environmental Protection Agency National Center for Atmospheric Research University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Ecological Society of America American Society of Agronomy American Society of Plant Biologists Association of Ecosystem Research Centers Botanical Society of America Crop Science Society of America 6

7 American Statistical Association Organization of Biological Field Stations American Physical Society Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics Society of Systematic Biologists Soil Science Society of America Federation of American Scientists National Research Council National Association of Geoscience Teachers American Quaternary Association American Association of Wildlife Veterinarians American Society for Microbiology Society of American Foresters American Astronomical Society Natural Science Collections Alliance Europe: European Academy of Sciences and Arts European Science Foundation European Geosciences Union European Physical Society European Federation of Geologists Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters Royal Society of the United Kingdom Academie des Sciences (France) Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher (Germany) Accademia dei Lincei (Italy) Royal Irish Academy Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Royal Academy of Belgium for Sciences and the Arts Royal Meteorological Society British Antarctic Survey 7

8 Other countries ( 35): Chinese Academy of Sciences Science Council of Japan Russian Academy of Sciences Indian National Science Academy Royal Society of New Zealand Australian Academy of Sciences Australian Medical Association Polish Academy of Sciences Academia Brasiliera de Ciencias (Brazil) Royal Society of Canada African Academy of Sciences Caribbean Academy of Sciences Academy of Sciences of Malaysia Indonesian Academy of Sciences Academy of Science of South Africa Scientific organizations holding a dissenting opinion: This is the entire list in 2007: American Association of Petroleum Geologists Since 2008: None 8

9 Or we could just ask the experts 97.5% of climate scientists agree that humans are the primary cause of climate change today How has climate been changing in the Great Lakes Region? 9

10 Since 1900, the Great Lakes Region (GLR) has warmed by ~ 1.0 o C Average annual temperature Since 1980, rate of warming is 3 times faster The Great Lakes have been warming rapidly (colors indicate significant trends) o C warming per year

11 Consequently, ice cover has decreased by 71% since 1973 Days lost per year Ice cover has been particularly low since 2015 Lake Michigan Lake Superior 11

12 There has also been a big increase in extreme precipitation events Since 1958 How will future climate change affect the Great Lakes Region? 12

13 The magnitude of future warming in the GLR depends on our choices Business as Usual 950 ppm 4-5 o C Paris Agreement 550 ppm 2 o C Will a 5 o temperature rise matter? When Earth was 5 o cooler: 13

14 By 2100 under Business as Usual (BAU), most of the GLR is predicted to warm by o C (8-12 o F) BAU But under the Paris Agreement, most of the GLR is predicted to warm by only o C (3-4 o F) Paris Agreement 14

15 By 2100 under Business as Usual, % of GLR summers will be hotter than today s record hot summer BAU % of summers hotter than any on record But under the Paris Agreement, only 10-70% would be hotter than today s record hot summer Paris BAU Agreement % of summers hotter than any on record 15

16 By 2100 under Business as Usual, southern Michigan is predicted to have days per year over 90 o F BAU By 2100 under Business as Usual, southern Michigan is predicted to have days per year over 90 o F Paris Agreement 16

17 By 2100 under Business as Usual, Detroit is predicted to have 19 Chicago 1995-like heat waves per decade Number of Chicago 1995-like heat waves per decade Paris BAU But under the Paris Agreement, Detroit is predicted to have only 1-2 Chicago 1995-like heat waves per decade Number of Chicago 1995-like heat waves per decade Paris BAU - could prevent 1,300 deaths per year in Detroit 17

18 By 2100 under Business as Usual, GLR summer rainfall is predicted to decrease by ~ 5% (with substantial warming) BAU Under the Paris Agreement, GLR summer rainfall is predicted not to decrease (with moderate warming) Paris Agreement 18

19 Under Business as Usual, GLR forests are predicted to change dramatically, but less so under the Paris Agreement Current Under Business as Usual, GLR forests are predicted to change dramatically, but less so under the Paris Agreement BAU Current 19

20 Under Business as Usual, GLR forests are predicted to change dramatically, but less so under the Paris Agreement Paris BAU Agreement Current Under Business as Usual, summer stratification period is predicted to increase dramatically for all Great Lakes +89 days +62 days +62 days +77 days +61 days 20

21 Warm-water species will be climate winners, but cold- and cool-water species will be climate losers climate winners climate losers carp trout bluegill whitefish catfish salmon Under Business as Usual, 70% of the Earth s land surface will be at risk of at least moderate biome change Moderate change e.g. boreal forest to temperate deciduous forest Major change e.g. tropical forest to savanna 21

22 Under Business as Usual, almost all of the GLR will be at risk of at least moderate biome change Major change Major/Moderate change Moderate change BAU Under the Paris Agreement, much less of the GLR (and only 25% of Earth s land surface) will be at risk of at least moderate biome change Major change Major/Moderate change Moderate change Paris Agreement 22

23 Under Business as Usual, species in the GLR will have a moderate probability of experiencing a disappearing climate BAU Probability of Disappearing Climate Extinction Low Moderate High Under the Paris Agreement, the probability would decrease a bit for the Great Lakes Region, and would decrease dramatically for many other regions of the world Paris Agreement Probability of Disappearing Climate Extinction Low Moderate High 23

24 The future depends on our choices With the Paris Agreement, 195 countries pledged to limit warming to 2 o C How do we limit warming to 2 o C? 1. Choose to practice energy efficiency and conservation >250 mpg - however, by itself, only delays the outcome 24

25 2. Choose to generate some of your own green energy - an essential step toward the only real climate change solution 3. Choose to demand that our policymakers support smarter energy choices Target: 80% of energy from smarter sources by 2040 Solar Wind Potential: 100 times total global energy use Potential: 40 times total global energy use 25

26 A solar array less than 100 x 100 miles could provide all of U.S. electricity needs today - excess heat captured during the day could be stored and used to produce electricity at night 4. Choose to talk about climate change causes, consequences, and solutions with friends with ones who think differently with coworkers and especially with youth 26

27 What percent of adults in the GLR think global warming is happening? 69% 68% 68% 77% 75% 73% 67% 64% What percent of adults in the GLR are worried about global warming? 56% 54% 56% 60% 53% 49% 27

28 What percent of adults in the GLR trust climate scientists? 71% 70% 71% 72% 70% 67% What percent of adults in the GLR think most scientists believe global warming is happening? 51% 49% 47% 47% 51% 43% 28

29 5. Speak for the moral high ground 6. Choose to join a climate truth organization 29

30 7. Choose to make climate change a major voting issue Bottom line: The Great Lakes Region, like the rest of the planet, would benefit tremendously from limiting warming to 2 o C. For a short time, it s still an achievable target, and it s worth fighting for. 30

31 The future depends on our choices Thank you for listening 31