Climate Change: Past, Present, and Future

Transcription

1 Climate Change: Past, Present, and Future David Karowe Department of Biological Sciences Western Michigan University Warming is now times faster than in at least 800,000 years Temperature difference relative to ( 1

2 Can climate change be due to natural variation? While Earth has been warming fastest, solar irradiance has been decreasing Temperature Solar Irradiance Since 1900, natural factors would have caused a slight cooling of Earth Is there any debate among scientists about whether humans are the primary cause of global warming? Most of the global warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities." Scientific organizations endorsing this statement: United States: National Academy of Sciences American Medical Association American Association for the Advancement of Science American Meteorological Society American Institute of Biological Sciences American Chemical Society American Geophysical Union American Institute of Physics 2

3 Geological Society of America American Academy of Paediatrics American College of Preventive Medicine American Public Health Association National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration Environmental Protection Agency National Center for Atmospheric Research University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Ecological Society of America American Society of Agronomy American Society of Plant Biologists Association of Ecosystem Research Centers Botanical Society of America Crop Science Society of America Natural Science Collections Alliance Europe: European Academy of Sciences and Arts European Science Foundation European Geosciences Union European Physical Society European Federation of Geologists Royal Society of the United Kingdom Academie des Sciences (France) Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher (Germany) Accademia dei Lincei (Italy) Royal Irish Academy Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Royal Academy of Belgium for Sciences and the Arts Royal Meteorological Society British Antarctic Survey United Kingdom Institute of Biology 3

4 Other countries ( 35): Chinese Academy of Sciences Science Council of Japan Russian Academy of Sciences Indian National Science Academy Royal Society of New Zealand Australian Academy of Sciences Polish Academy of Sciences Academia Brasiliera de Ciencias (Brazil) Royal Society of Canada African Academy of Sciences Caribbean Academy of Sciences Academy of Sciences of Malaysia Indonesian Academy of Sciences Academy of Science of South Africa Scientific organizations holding a dissenting opinion: 2007: American Institute of Petroleum Geologists Since 2008: none 4

5 Has Earth stopped warming? This is a deceptive argument that only works with the Super El Nino year as the starting point Has climate change started to affect the U.S.? 5

6 2012 was the warmest year on record for the U.S. Much of the U.S. has been experiencing severe drought August December February January March April July May June % 58% 56% 59% 64% 79% 72% 78% drought drought 6

7 Is the U.S. still in drought? April 16, 2013: 62% drought What does the future hold? It depends on the choices we make 7

8 Depending on choices we make, Earth is likely to warm by 2-5 o C by 2100 Actual Business as usual 4 o 2 o Alternate energy sources Much of the world is likely to experience much more frequent and stronger droughts by the 2060s exceptional extreme severe moderate mild drought Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) 8

9 Much of the world is likely to experience much more frequent and stronger droughts by the 2060s Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) Much of the world is likely to experience much more frequent and stronger droughts by the 2060s Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) 9

10 Most summers are likely to be hotter than any experienced thus far To avoid worst scenarios, we need to rapidly and substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions Target: 80% reduction by 2050 Urgent need for alternate energy sources Solar Wind 10

11 1. We re causing climate to change at an alarming rate 2. If we continue on our current path, the future is very likely to include unprecedented hardships for all of Earth s species, including humans 3. Many of the worst scenarios can be avoided by smarter energy choices we have available today The Politics of Climate Change Paul Clements Professor of Political Science Western Michigan University 11

12 The Bottom Line No way to limit global warming to 2 C without a strong international agreement. Such an agreement is only possible with American leadership. Why the 2 C target? 12

13 drought sea level rise 13

14 floods famine 14

15 Extinctions Globally, if we allow Earth to warm by 3 o C, 20 50% of species may be committed to extinction 29 Per capita CO 2 emissions (tons), 2008 USA 18.6 China 5.3 Sweden 5.3 Brazil 2.0 India 1.5 Kenya 0.3 Source: World Bank 15

16 Principles for no more than 2 C warming: 3 tons/capita C0 2 emissions for each country by 2050 Industrialized countries help low-income countries to develop with clean-energy technologies Main beneficiaries of greenhouse gas emitting activities (mainly in industrialized countries) help main victims of climate change (mainly in poor countries) to adapt to climate change and to avoid/recover from worst harms Why the urgency? Delaying action makes it more expensive. 16

17 History of Climate Change Policy in the United States 1978, National Research Council: if carbon dioxide continues to increase [we find] no reason to doubt that climate change will result and no reason to believe that these changes will be negligible. A wait-and-see policy may mean waiting until it is too late Congress directed Environmental Protection Agency to develop national policy on climate change, directed Secretary of State to coordinate diplomatic efforts to combat global warming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) established by World Meteorological Organization & United Nations Environment Programme 1990 IPCC published first report confirming humaninduced climate change 17

18 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change signed by George H. W. Bush, ratified unanimously by U.S. Senate 1997 Kyoto Protocol; Senate unanimously passed resolution stating the U.S. should not enter into a treaty that did not include binding commitments from developing countries or that would cause harm to the U.S. economy President George W. Bush repudiated Kyoto Protocol, chose not to regulate CO California Governor Schwarzenegger ordered state s total greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to 2000 levels by 2010, 1990 levels by 2020, and 80% below 1990 levels by Corresponds to 12.5 tons of CO 2 equivalent per capita in 2010, 10 tons in 2020, and 1.5 tons in Supreme Court decided Massachusetts vs. EPA by 5-4 majority giving EPA authority to regulate greenhouse gasses. 18

19 2009 Democratic majority in U.S. House of Representatives passed climate change bill proposing cap and trade system, yielding estimated price of $13 in 2012 to emit a ton of CO 2. Aimed to reduce U.S. emissions to 18 tons per capita by 2020 and 4 tons per capita by Bill supported by President Obama, but died when Senate refused to take it up. Climate change conference in Copenhagen agreed to 2 C target but fails to set binding commitments (lacking U.S. support). Hillary Clinton promised that U.S. would help to raise $100 billion annually by 2020 to help poor countries cope with climate change if China and India accepted binding commitments open to international inspection and verification Fred Upton s website: I strongly believe that everything must be on the table as we seek to reduce carbon emissions Upton became chair of House Energy and Commerce Committee. Upton in Wall Street Journal op-ed: EPA regulation to curb greenhouse gas emissions presumes that carbon is a problem in need of regulation. We are not convinced. Carbon rules are an unconstitutional power grab that will kill millions of jobs. Upton authored Energy Tax Prevention Act prohibiting the EPA Administrator from regulating greenhouse gasses and repealing mandatory reporting of greenhouse gasses. (It passed the House but died in the Senate.) 19

20 2013 President Obama asserted commitment to address climate change in inaugural address and State of the Union speech. But effective action to limit warming to 2 C requires a strong international agreement. Not possible without American leadership; requires not only presidential leadership but also Congressional support. The Politics of Climate Change: Denial and Government Failure to Act Ron Kramer Department of Sociology Western Michigan University 20

21 Climate change is the most important moral, social and political issue of our time The symbolic use of the concept of crime and criminality concerning climate change Crime: a grievous, blameworthy harm Refers to the failure of governments to act to mitigate or adapt to climate change Climate Change from a Criminological Perspective Rob White (ed.) My chapter focuses on climate change as state-corporate crime 21

22 Despite the climate emergency, there has been a monumental failure of the political system to act The abject failure of the U.S. government to act to mitigate GHG emissions and the socially organized denial of climate change that shapes that failure can be conceptualized as state corporate crimes. A blameworthy harm ; a crime of omission ; negligent state criminality, where the government fails to act affirmatively to prevent unnecessary and premature loss of life The Politics of Climate Change Interactions between the fossil fuel industry and the federal government result in a lack of action on climate change: 1. Subsidies 2. Lobbying 3. Campaign Contributions 4. Revolving Door 5. Drafting of Legislation 22

23 Climate Change Denial Countermovement The global warming denial movement, organized by corporate and ideological interest groups, creates doubts about climate science and blocks actions to reduce emissions and create energy alternatives. Denial efforts are largely carried out by conservative think tanks funded for the most part by the fossil fuel industry. They attempt to obfuscate, misrepresent, manipulate or suppress the results of scientific research. There are five types of climate change denial argument: 1. Conspiracy theories-plot to abolish capitalism or Climategate s prove conspiracy 2. Fake Experts-Petitions show there is no consensus or spokespersons with no background in climate science 3. Impossible expectations-climate models not completely certain 4. Misrepresentations and logical fallacies-the climate has changed in the past, current change is natural variation 5. Cherry-picking-Isolated papers and data are selected while the larger body of evidence is ignored 23

24 The Moral/Political Challenge of Climate Change A matter of Social Justice: Ecological debt to global South Suffering of the poor Moral obligation to future generation Obligation to other species 24