SEMAP 2018 Ozone Projections and Sensitivity to NO x & VOC Emissions
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1 SEMAP 2018 Ozone Projections and Sensitivity to NO x & VOC Emissions Presented by: Jim Boylan - Chair, SEMAP TAWG Prepared by: Jim Boylan (GA EPD), Talat Odman (GT), Yongtao Hu (GT), Zac Adelman (UNC), Uma Shankar (UNC) Presented at: 2014 Midwest and Central States Air Quality Workshop St. Louis, MO - April 23, 2014
2 Project Overview Outline 2007 and 2018 Emission Inventories 2018 Ozone Projections NOx and VOC Sensitivities Absolute Relative Normalized Interstate Contributions Next Steps 2
3 SEMAP Project SouthEastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) Project Managed through SESARM Technical Analysis Workgroup, Meteorological Workgroup, Emission Inventory Workgroup, Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Workgroup Special Sub-Groups: Fires, EGUs, MOVES Same group of states that were involved with SAMI, VISTAS, and ASIP AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN, VA, WV 3
4 Air Quality Modeling System Meteorology (WRF) Air Quality (CMAQ) Emissions Inventory (NIF) Emissions (SMOKE) MOVES Rates 4
5 Modeling Overview 2007 and 2018 annual modeling with CMAQv km (CONUS) and 12 km grids Updated mixing coefficients Updated land-water interface Acceptable model performance 2018 future year projections with MATS software (RRFs and DVFs) Ozone - presented here PM will be available soon Regional Haze - will be available soon 5
6 SEMAP 12-km Modeling Domain 6
7 2007 Emission Inventory SEMAP Emissions Inventory AMEC/Alpine Point source (EGU and non- EGU), fire, and on-road mobile (MOVES2010a) SC&A, Inc. Area and non-road/mar Actual Emission Inventory (2007) Used for model performance evaluations Typical Emission Inventory ( ) Fires only (not EGUs) Used for RRF calculations Non-SEMAP Emissions Inventory 2007 MARAMA, 2007 LADCO, 2008v2 NEI 7
8 2018 Emission Inventory SEMAP Point, Area, and MAR Applied growth & control factors ( ) SEMAP Non-road Mobile Reran NONROAD model for 2018 SEMAP On-road Mobile Scaled hourly SMOKE-MOVES outputs with 2018/2007 ratios based on 2007 and 2018 inventory mode runs Vary by pollutant, state/county, annual/month, SCC Does not include Tier 3 controls SEMAP Fires Same as 2007 typical Non-SEMAP Emissions 2017 MARAMA (w/ existing controls) 2007 LADCO and 2008v2 NEI for area sources EPA 2017 Projections for point and mobile (on-road and non-road) 8
9 9
10 10
11 Calculation of DVF Ran MATS with 2007 typical as baseline and 2018 base-case as forecast to get RRFs RRF = (2018 base /2007 typ ) DVF = DVC RRF Calculated four different ways: Design Value Current (DVC) 2007 DV ( ) 5-year ( ) weighted average Relative Response Factor (RRF) Monitor (1 x 1) cell 3 x 3 cell maximum
12 DVF RRF Thresholds RRF thresholds based on modeled 2007 baseline daily 8-hour maximum ozone concentration Initial threshold value (ppb) = 75 Minimum number of days in baseline at or above threshold = 10 Minimum allowable threshold value (ppb) = 65 Min number of days at or above minimum allowable threshold = 5 12
13 5-Year Weighted DVC ( ) 13
14 2018 DVFs: 3 3 RRF & 2007 DVC 14
15 2018 DVFs: 1x1 RRF & 2007 DVC 15
16 2018 DVFs: 3 3 RRF & DVC 16
17 2018 DVFs: 1 1 RRF & DVC 17
18 2007 vs. 5-year weighted DVC 18
19 3 3 Max vs. 1 1 Cell RRFs 19
20 2018 Ozone Nonattainment DVF > 75 ppb based DVC 3x3 max and/or 1x1 cell STATE AIRS ID DVC 3x3 MAX 1x1 CELL CT CT GA GA GA GA LA LA LA LA LA LA MI MI MI MO MO MO MO NJ NJ STATE AIRS ID DVC 3x3 MAX 1x1 CELL NY NY NY NY TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX WI
21 2018 Ozone Maintenance DVF < 75 ppb based DVC DVF > 75 ppb based 2007 DVC 3x3 max and/or 1x1 cell STATE AIRS ID DVC 3x3 MAX 1x1 CELL AL AL AL AR CT CT CT GA IL LA LA LA LA LA LA LA MD MI MI MI STATE AIRS ID DVC 3x3 MAX 1x1 CELL MO MO MO MO MO MO NY NY NY NY NY OH OH OH OH PA PA PA TX TX TX WI
22 Ozone Sensitivities Start with 2018 modeling results Perform emission sensitivity runs Ozone season (5 months) on 12-km grid Statewide 30% emission reductions NO x and VOCs individually Point, area, mobile, NONROAD, MAR 14 geographic regions Ten individual SEMAP states Maryland MANE-VU (minus MD), LADCO, CENRAP 2 precursors x 14 regions = 28 model runs 22
23 VOC/NO x Sensitivity Updates Previous Sensitivity Modeling CMAQv4.4 1-Month summer episode New Sensitivity Modeling CMAQv Month ozone season VISTAS 2009 OTW BaseD SEMAP 2018 SEMAP-wide VOC reductions County/state NO x reductions MOBILE6 Absolute difference >70 ppb cutoff (based on modeled base year values) State-wide VOC reductions State-wide NO x reductions MOVES Absolute difference and RRF approach (MATS) >70 ppb cutoff (based on modeled future year values) 23
24 Calculation of O 3 Absolute Sensitivity Difference of daily max. 8-hr O 3 between 2018 sensitivity case and 2018 base case O 3 = 2018 sens 2018 base Averaged over days with 2018 base daily max. 8-hr O 3 above 70 ppb 24
25 Site-by-Site Absolute Sensitivities For each of the 674 ozone monitoring sites in the domain NO x and VOC sensitivities All days Days above 75 ppb in 2007 Used for 2007 to 2018 projections Days above 70 ppb in 2018 Used for 2018 sensitivities Here: (Confederate Ave., Atlanta, GA) (Baltimore, MD) All other sites: 25
26 (All Days) 26
27 (All Days with 2007 model > 75 ppb) 27
28 (All Days with 2018 model > 70 ppb) 28
29 State Summaries State summaries were created for each of the 31 states in the domain Includes sites with 2018 model days above 70 ppb NO x and VOC sensitivities Absolute Sensitivity O 3 averaged over 2018 days above 70 ppb Relative Sensitivity DVF using MATS (see next slide) Normalized Relative Sensitivity DVF/Emissions (see next section) 29
30 Calculation of DVF Relative Sensitivity Ran MATS 2018 base case as baseline and 2018 sensitivity as forecast Starting DVF based on 5-year weighted average DVC and monitor (1 1) cell RRF Includes sites with at least one 2018 model day above 70 ppb RRF = (2018 sens /2018 base ) DVF = (DVF*RRF) DVF = DVF*(RRF 1) 30
31 DVF RRF Thresholds RRF thresholds based on modeled 2018 baseline daily 8-hour maximum ozone concentration Initial threshold value (ppb) = 75 Minimum number of days in baseline at or above threshold = 10 Minimum allowable threshold value (ppb) = 70 Min number of days at or above minimum allowable threshold = 1 31
32 (Absolute Sensitivity) 32
33 (Relative Sensitivity with MATS) 33
34 (Absolute Sensitivity) 34
35 (Relative Sensitivity with MATS) 35
36 (Relative Sensitivity with MATS) 36
37 (Relative Sensitivity with MATS) 37
38 (Relative Sensitivity with MATS) 38
39 Normalized Sensitivities Divided the relative sensitivity from MATS for the home state by the annual average emissions reduction (ppt/tpd) ( DVF NOx x 1000)/TPD NOx ( DVF VOC x 1000)/TPD VOC Created stacked bar charts of normalized NOx and VOC sensitivities for each monitor Calculated state average normalized NOx and VOC sensitivities Calculated ratio of normalized NOx sensitivity to normalized VOC sensitivity for each monitor 39
40 Emission Reductions (30%) NOx (TPD) VOC (TPD) Alabama Florida Georgia Kentucky Mississippi North Carolina South Carolina Tennessee Virginia West Virginia
41 41
42 42
43 43
44 NOx vs. VOC Ratios 44
45 Interstate Contributions Examined state-by-state contributions at downwind sites with DVF > 75 ppb in 2018 Divided state-by-state 30% NOx contributions from MATS by 0.3 to obtain 100% NOx contribution from each state Assumes NOx sensitivities are linear to 100% Removed contributions from non-semap states and from home states Identified SEMAP states that contributed more than various thresholds: 1.0 ppb 0.75 ppb 45
46 (MI, MO, WI) 46
47 (LA and TX) 47
48 NAA State Contributions STATE Site DV-2007 DV-2018 (1x1) AL FL GA KY MS NC SC TN VA WV CT CT GA GA GA GA LA LA LA LA LA LA MI MI MI MO MO MO MO NJ NJ NY NY NY NY TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX WI
49 MAINT State Contributions STATE Site DV-2007 DV-2018 (1x1) AL FL GA KY MS NC SC TN VA WV AL AL AL AR CT CT CT GA IL LA LA LA LA LA LA LA MD MI MI MI MO MO MO MO MO MO NY NY NY NY NY OH OH OH OH PA PA PA TX TX TX WI
50 Summary In general, absolute sensitivities ( O 3 ) and relative sensitivities ( DVF) are very similar. Anthropogenic NO x emission reductions are much more effective at reducing 8-hour ozone concentrations compared to anthropogenic VOC emission reductions. Some sites in Florida show comparable benefits from VOC and NOx reductions. The home state typically has the largest impact on its own monitors. Neighboring states have the next largest impact. Five of the ten SEMAP states have < 0.75 ppb contribution to monitors with 2018 DVF > 75 ppb. 50
51 Next Steps Run MATS to generate SEMAP 2018 projections for PM 2.5 and Regional Haze Replicate EPA 2011 and 2018 modeling May adjust 2018 EGUs based on ERTAC model May replace SMOKE-MOVES emissions with inventory mode MOVES May adjust VOC emissions from fires May perform NOx emission sensitivities Create 2028 emission inventory and perform 2028 modeling for Regional Haze 51
52 Contact Information Jim Boylan, Ph.D. Georgia Dept. of Natural Resources 4244 International Parkway, Suite 120 Atlanta, GA
53 Appendix (Additional Slides)
54 Atlanta, GA Absolute Sensitivities
55 (All Days) 55
56 (All Days with 2007 model > 75 ppb) 56
57 (All Days with 2018 model > 70 ppb) 57
58 (All Days) 58
59 (All Days with 2007 model > 75 ppb) 59
60 (All Days with 2018 model > 70 ppb) 60
61 Baltimore, MD Absolute Sensitivities
62 (All Days) 62
63 (All Days with 2007 model > 75 ppb) 63
64 (All Days with 2018 model > 70 ppb) 64
65 (All Days) 65
66 (All Days with 2007 model > 75 ppb) 66
67 (All Days with 2018 model > 70 ppb) 67
68 Relative Sensitivity State Summary
69 (Relative Sensitivity with MATS) 69
70 (Relative Sensitivity with MATS) 70
71 (Relative Sensitivity with MATS) 71
72 (Relative Sensitivity with MATS) 72
73 (Relative Sensitivity with MATS) 73
74 (Relative Sensitivity with MATS) 74
75 (Relative Sensitivity with MATS) 75
76 (Relative Sensitivity with MATS) 76
77 (Relative Sensitivity with MATS) 77
78 (Relative Sensitivity with MATS) 78
79 (Relative Sensitivity with MATS) 79
80 (Relative Sensitivity with MATS) 80
81 (Relative Sensitivity with MATS) 81
82 (Relative Sensitivity with MATS) 82
83 (Relative Sensitivity with MATS) 83
84 (Relative Sensitivity with MATS) 84
85 (Relative Sensitivity with MATS) 85
86 (Relative Sensitivity with MATS) 86
87 (Relative Sensitivity with MATS) 87
88 (Relative Sensitivity with MATS) 88
89 (Relative Sensitivity with MATS) 89
90 (Relative Sensitivity with MATS) 90
91 Normalized Sensitivity State Summary
92 92
93 93
94 94
95 95
96 96
97 97
98 98
99 99
100 100
101 101
102 Interstate Contributions Bar Charts
103 (GA) 103
104 (AL and GA) 104
105 (CT, NJ, NY) 105
106 (CT, MD, NY, PA) 106
107 (MI, MO, WI) 107
108 (IL, MI, MO, OH, WI) 108
109 (LA and TX) 109
110 (AR, LA, TX) 110
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