ADMS-Airport and its application to PSDH and the R3/Mixed Mode consultation for Heathrow

Transcription

1 ADMS-Airport and its application to PSDH and the R3/Mixed Mode consultation for Heathrow Study conducted for DfT David Carruthers Cambridge Environmental Research Consultants OMEGA International Conference on Airport Air Quality London, October

2 Contents Key Factors affecting AQ at Airports Features of ADMS-Airport Model Set-Up and Emissions AQ Monitoring at Heathrow Model Performance and Results

3 1) Key factors affecting air quality at airports

4 Key factors affecting air quality at airports Emissions Background concentrations Meteorology Near field dispersion processes Chemical reactions

5 2) Features of ADMS-Airport

6 Features of ADMS-Airport An extension of ADMS-Urban Gaussian type model nested in regional trajectory model Includes chemical reaction scheme, meteorological preprocessor, Monin-Obukhov and mixed layer scaling for boundary layer structure Allowance for up to 6500 sources: road (1500, each with up to 50 vertices), point, line area and volume (1500), grid sources (3000) and up to 500 runway sources (exhaust modelled as moving jets) Other airport features Hour by hour time varying data Multi-segment line sources e.g. taxi ways GIS link displays line, volume and runway sources

7 Features: MODELLING EXHAUSTS AS MOVING JETS - TAKE-OFF Models engine exhausts as moving jet sources As the aircraft accelerates buoyancy and emissions increasingly spread along the runway the exhaust jet sees a faster ambient wind speed, this affects the plume rise The plume from the faster aircraft rises less than that from a slower aircraft

8 Local and Regional Scales Box model domain Main model domain First source Backgound monitoring site U Main model nested within large, area-wide trajectory model

9 3) Model Set-Up and Emissions

10 Heathrow: SCENARIOS 2010 Segregated Mode (2010SM) 2015 Segregated Mode (2015SM) 2015 Segregated Mode with Easterly Preference (2015EP) 2015 Segregated Mode with No Cranford Agreement (2015NoC) 2015 Mixed Mode (2015MM) 2015 Mixed Mode with traffic mitigation (2015MMRd) 2030 Mixed Mode (2030MM) 2020 Third Runway (2020R3) 2030 Third Runway (2030R3)

11 Heathrow: METEOROLOGICAL DATA (knots) (m/s) Wind speed

12 Heathrow: BACKGROUND CONCENTRATIONS, AVERAGE Annual Average (µg/m³) % Harwell 220 to to 60 % 135 to 220 % Wicken Fen 60 to 135 Lullington Heath % % Rochester % Harwell % Wicken Fen 184 to 4 % 4 to 184 Lullington Heath % % Rochester NOx NO2 O3 PM Year

13 Heathrow: EMISSION SOURCES Gridded sources for all of London (LAEI,NAEI) Roads local to Heathrow from LAEI (London Atmospheric Emissions Inventory) and the Heathrow Inventory (Heathrow area road traffic data from Hyder) LTO: taxi-in, taxi-out, landing, approach, initial climb, climb out (AEA) Other: APU, airside vehicles, car parks, taxi ranks modelled as area or volume sources (AEA)

14 Heathrow: ANNUAL NOx EMISSIONS, ROAD & AIRPORT t/yr) NOx emissions (t 3000 Road Airport Base 2010 SM 2015 SM 2015 MM 2020 R MM 2030 R3

15 Heathrow: PRIMARY NO2 EMISSIONS 25% 20% Road Traffic Primary NO2 15% 10% 5% Heathrow area Rest of London 0% Year Industrial sources: 10% primary NO2 assumed Primary NO2 for aircraft depends on thrust 100% - 4.5%; 85% - 5.3%; 30% %; 7% %

16 Heathrow: TRAFFIC EMISSION FACTORS Light duty vehicles, arabic numerals: 4, 5, 6 Heavy duty vehicles, roman numerals: IV, V, VI Motorcycles, arabic numerals: 4, 5, 6 but may have different entry dates from the light duty vehicles Euro 5 and V Euro 6 and VI Petrol cars Jan Petrol LGVs Jan Diesel cars Jan 2010 Jan 2015 Diesel LGVs Jan 2011 Jan 2016 HDVs Oct 2008 Jan 2013

17 Heathrow: TRAFFIC EMISSION FACTORS RIGID HDV 12 EURO V & VI rigid (urban, 2010) 10 emission factor (g g/km) EURO V EURO VI P07 - EURO V P07 - EURO VI speed

18 Heathrow: TRAFFIC EMISSION FACTORS ARTIC HDV 12 EURO V & VI articulated (urban, 2010) 10 emission factor (g g/km) EURO V EURO VI P07 - EURO V P07 - EURO VI speed

19 Heathrow: CURRENT AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS TAKE-OFF 1 BA have developed a method to relate information on take-off thrust to be derived from information on actual take-off weight The methodology is based on analysis of an extensive set of FDR and weight data for the fleet at Heathrow The method has been extended for use with airlines The method has been extended for use with airlines other than BA and aircraft outside the data set by adding 5% to the estimate of thrust to account for uncertainties

20 Heathrow: CURRENT APU EMISSIONS NOX BA defined 6 APU class, each aircraft at Heathrow was assigned to one the classes Model emission indices were derived by BA from the detailed manufacturers data PM10 BA found a large variability in modal PM10 emission rates The variability was found to be reduced if the PM10 emission rates were expressed as a function of the corresponding NOX index Three classes of APU were defined with different NOX-PM10 relationships

21 Heathrow: FUTURE AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS TAKE-OFF Based on judgement by Qinetiq on evolution of aircraft engines for current fleet and future fleet. Takes into account manufacturers targets, technology expectations Emissions primarily characterised in terms relative to CAEP/4 limits Higher average take-off thrust settings on R3

22 4) AQ Monitoring at Heathrow

23 Heathrow: AMBIENT MONITORING SITES 1

24 Heathrow: MONITORED NOX CONCENTRATIONS NO x trends with 2002 and 2010 predictions (mg/m 3 ) NO x concentration LHR2 LHR5 LHR6 LHR8 LHR10 LHR11 LHR14 LHR15 LHR16 LHR17 LHR18 LHR2 predicted LHR5 predicted LHR6 predicted LHR8 predicted LHR10 predicted LHR11 predicted LHR14 predicted LHR15 predicted LHR16 predicted LHR17 predicted LHR18 predicted Year

25 Heathrow: MONITORED NO2 CONCENTRATIONS NO 2 trends with 2002 and 2010 predictions /m 3 ) NO 2 concentration (mg/ LHR2 LHR5 LHR6 LHR8 LHR10 LHR11 LHR14 LHR15 LHR16 LHR17 LHR18 LHR2 predicted LHR5 predicted LHR6 predicted LHR8 predicted LHR10 predicted LHR11 predicted LHR14 predicted LHR15 predicted LHR16 predicted LHR17 predicted LHR18 predicted Year

26 Heathrow: MONITORED NO2/NOX RATIO 0.8 NO 2 / NO x ratio trend NO 2 / NO x ratio LHR2 LHR5 LHR6 LHR10 LHR11 LHR14 LHR15 LHR16 LHR17 LHR Year

27 5) Model performance and Results

28 LHR10 60 LHR10 lled NOx (ug/m3) Model LHR6 LHR11 LHR5 LHR14 LHR8 LHR15 LHR16 LHR2 Model lled NO2 (ug/m3) LHR16 LHR11 LHR5 LHR15 LHR14 LHR6 LHR8 LHR Measured NOx (ug/m3) Measured NO2 (ug/m3) Scatter plot comparison of monitored and modelled annual average NOX and NO2

29 Box and whisker plot of the ratio of modelled to monitored NO x concentration 10 Ratio of NO x concentration 1 LHR2 Box and whisker plots for the ratio of (calculated/monitored) concentrations, NO X (top) and NO 2 (bottom). 0.1 LHR2 LHR5 LHR6 LHR8 LHR10 LHR11 LHR14 LHR15 LHR16 10 Box and whisker plot of the ratio of modelled to monitored NO 2 concentration The lines indicate the 75 th, 50 th and 25 th percentiles and the lines extend from the 95 th to 5 th percentile. Ratio of NO 2 concentration LHR2 LHR5 LHR6 LHR8 LHR10 LHR11 LHR14 LHR15 LHR16

30 LHR2 diurnal variation ADMS-Airport (solid line) compared with measured data (dotted line), different runway use D LHR2-LHR8 Measured D LHR2-LHR8 Modelled A LHR2-LHR8 Measured A LHR2-LHR8 Modelled 120 (ug/m3) NOx concentration Hour of the day

31 Base Case NOX No orthing (metres) Easting (metres)

32 Base Case NO Norrthing (metres) Easting (metres)

33 Base Case ozone Northing (metres) Easting (metres)

34 Northing (metres) Easting (metres) PM10 due to -All sources (top left) -Airport and other airport sources (top right) -Road sources (bottom) Northing (metres) Northing (metres) Easting (metres) Easting (metres)

35 Page 41, Adding Capacity at Heathrow Airport: Consultation Document, Department for Transport, November 2007

36 Predicted NO 2 concentrations 2002 Base Case 2010 SM 2015 SM Northing (metres) Easting (metres) 2015 MM 2020 R R Northings (metres) Eastings (metres)

37 Scenarios: ANNUAL AVERAGE CONCENTRATION OF NOx and NO2 ACROSS THE DOMAIN Annual average e (µg/m³) Average NOx Average NO base 2010 SM 2015 SM 2015 MM 2020 R R MM

38 Scenarios: NUMBER OF PROPERTIES & POPULATION PREDICTED TO EXCEED NO2 LIMIT Case Properties Population 2002 Base SM SM MM MMrd MM R R3 0 0

39 Scenarios: NUMBER OF PROPERTIES PREDICTED TO EXCEED NO2 LIMIT Properties Exceed ding 40µg/m³ base 2010 SM 2015 SM 2015 MM 2020 R R MM

40 Scenarios: PERCENTAGE AREA OF DOMAIN EXCEEDING NO2 LIMIT 25 Percentage area exc ceeding 40µg/m³ base 2010 SM 2015 SM 2015 MM 2020 R R MM

41 Scenarios: PDFs OF ANNUAL AVERGAE NO2 CONCENTRATIONS ity Probabili Base 2015MM 2030MM 2030 R Annual average NO2 (µg/m³)

42 Scenarios: AREA EXCEEDING NO2 LIMIT AS A FUNCTION OF AIRPORT AND ROAD NOX EMISSIONS 4500 Average NOx Emissions fr rom Road Traffic (t/yr) Size = Area Exceeding 40µg/m³ 2015 MM 2030 MM 2002 Base 2030 R Average NOx Emissions from Airport (t/yr) 2010 SM 2015 SM 2020 R3

43 Conclusions Key factors affecting pollutant concentrations in the neighbourhood of airports include the following: Emissions including primary NO 2 Background concentrations e.g. O 3 Meteorology Near field dispersion processes Chemical reactions Heathrow Mixed Mode and R3 Consultation period over; DfT preparing response