ANALYSIS OF CRETE S INTERCONNECTION SCENARIOS TOWARDS THE LARGE SCALE DEVELOPMENT OF RES ON THE ISLAND

Transcription

1 Diploma s thesis ANALYSIS OF CRETE S INTERCONNECTION SCENARIOS TOWARDS THE LARGE SCALE DEVELOPMENT OF RES ON THE ISLAND Maxilaris Dimitrios Supervisors : Zervos Arthouros, Caralis George National Technical University of Athens, School of Mechanical Engineering, Fluids Section Brussels, October 2017

2 2 Introduction: Power generation system of Crete Largest non-interconnected power system in Greece Three old and expensive thermal stations New directives of the EU (92010/75/ΕU & 2015/2193/ΕU) stations under limited operation Prospect of interconnection Vital scenario for the Had Been studied, never materialized Rapid development in the techno-economic field of the submarine cables Introduction Purpose of the study Technical model Financial Model Results of basic study investigation scenarios Conclusion

3 3 Analysis of the electrical system of Crete Purpose of the study (I) Develop a long-term energy plan which will include a detailed analysis for alternative scenarios of development Different options for the island's energy mix Development of energy infrastructure and setting of environmental objectives Comparison of different scenarios with energy (Capacity Factor, Absorption Rate) and financial ( LCoE) criteria Deepening in the scenarios of Crete's development through interconnection and increased penetration of the RES on the island Three interconnection scenarios with HVDC link Scenario A1 (Peloponnese-Crete) Scenario A2 (Attica -Crete) Scenario C (double interconnection Peloponnese-Crete and Attica- Crete) Two autonomous power generation scenarios Scenario B (with oil), Scenario D (with Natural Gas) Introduction Purpose of the study Technical model Financial Model Results of basic study investigation scenarios Conclusion

4 4 Purpose of the study (II) Scenario A1 Interconnection Peloponnese-Crete 2x350 MW, 250km distance of submarine cables, 120km of overhead cables Scenario A2 Interconnection Attica- Crete 2x350 MW, 380km distance of submarine cables, 20km of overhead cables Introduction Purpose of the study Technical model Financial Model Results of basic study investigation scenarios Conclusion

5 Scenario C Double Interconnection 1 st leg: year: 2020, interconnection between Peloponnese and Crete 2 nd leg: year 2030, interconnection between Attica and Crete Purpose of the study (III) Demand and Peak Demand on the Island 5 Introduction Purpose of the study Technical model Financial Model Results of basic study investigation scenarios Conclusion

6 6 Technical Model Brief explanation of the technical model Energy evaluation of the model Hourly time series model for entire years Basic Time series through basic equations: Common for all scenarios: E RES =E wind + E PV (1) Only for autonomous: E th. =E tech.mins. +E extra.th. (2), E extra.th. = E demand -E RES (3) Only for interconnection: E inter. = E demand -E RES (4) E th. = E demand -E RES - E inter. (5), Ε RESover = Ε RES Ε Demand (6) Capacity Factor th. = (RE produced/re produced if working on the nominal load for 8760hr/yr) Capacity Factor real = (RE absorbed/re produced if working on the nominal load for 8760hr/yr) Absorption Rate= (RE absorbed/re produced) Introduction Purpose of the study Technical Model Financial Model Results of basic study investigation scenarios Conclusion

7 7 Financial Evaluation of the model Financial Model Calculation of LCoE (Levelised Cost of Energy) LCoE= (total lifetime expenses / total expected output) LCoE is the average minimum cost at which electricity must be sold in order to breakeven over the lifetime of the project. LCοE = σ NI t +OC t t 1+i t σ t N E gen,t 1+i t, I t : Investment Cost OC t : Operational Cost E gen,t : Energy generated i: discount rate Introduction Purpose of the study Technical model Financial Model Results of basic study investigation scenarios Conclusion

8 8 Results of basic study (I): RES power installed RES power through the years for all scenarios Scenarios Wind power(mw) PV power(mw) Total RES power (as a % of the Peak of N-1 year) year year year A B C B(oil) D(NG) Introduction Purpose of the work Technical model Financial Model Results of basic study Investigation scenarios Conclusion

9 Energy (GWh) Εnergy (GWh) Results of basic study (II): Cover of Load Demand Cover of Load Demand, Scenario Α1 ( ) Cover of Load Demand, Scenario D ( ) En.interc En.th.NG En.PV En.PV 5000 En.wind En.thermal 5000 En.wind En.th.oil Demand Demand year year Introduction Purpose of the work Technical model Financial Model Results of basic study Investigation scenarios Conclusion

10 10 Results of basic study (III): Cable durations Cable Durations, Scenario C Cable Duration, Scenario Α x x x500 0 Power (MW) x x Power (MW) x Introduction hours of the year Purpose of the work Technical model Financial Model Results of basic study hours of the year Investigation scenarios Conclusion

11 Percentage Percentage Results of basic study (IV): Energy evaluation factors 11 Energy Evaluation Factors, Scenario B Energy Evaluation Factors, Scenario Α1 80% 120% 70% 100% 60% 50% 40% C.F.real.RES Α.R. C.F.real.wind 80% 60% C.F.real.RES Α.R. C.F.real.wind 30% 40% 20% 10% 20% 0% 0% years of study Years of study Introduction Purpose of the work Technical model Financial Model Results of basic study Investigation scenarios Conclusion

12 Results of basic study (V): Energy results 12 Contribution in Crete s demand, curtailment of RES power and the surplus of RES energy sold to the interconnected system, all expressed as Year Scen ario Contribution Curtailment Surplus Contribution Curtailment Surplus Contribution Curtailment Surplus Contribution Curtailment Surplus Α Α C Β D Introduction Purpose of the work Technical model Financial Model Results of basic study Investigation scenarios Conclusion

13 LCoE (Euro/MWh) Results of basic study (VI): LCoE calculation Calculation of LCoE for the whole lifetime of the investments Calculation of LCoE annually for all investment scenarios LCOE annual A1 Annual Calculation of LCoE LCOE annual A2 LCOE annual C LCOE annual Β LCOE annual D 13 LCOE (Euro/MWh) Scenario Α Scenario Α Scenario Β Scenario C Scenario D year Introduction Purpose of the work Technical model Financial Model Results of basic study Investigation scenarios Conclusion

14 Curtailment of RES Energy (as a % of total RES energy produced) Curtailment of RES Energy (as a % of total RES energy produced) Investigation Scenarios (I): Basic Graph Investigation for various scenarios of RES penetration and how this affects the energy evaluation factors, the total cost and the LCoE. Energy Mix Investigation Wind - PV, 2025 Scenario C 45% 40 40% % % % % % % 260 5% % PV power (as a % of the Peak Demand of N-1 year) Introduction Purpose of the work Technical model Financial Model Results of basic study Investigation scenarios Conclusion 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Energy Mix Investigation Wind - PV, 2050 Scenario C PV power (as a % of the Peak Demand of N-1 year) 14

15 15 Investigation Scenarios(II): Final Results Scenarios Year Basic Power (ΜW) A1 LCoE ann. ( /MWh) Optimal Power (ΜW) LCoE ann. ( /MWh) Scenarios Years RES Power (MW) Α1 Basic Optimal 2175(120/160) 2365(100/140) 2790(100/120) Α2 Basic Optimal 2641(180/160) 2954(160/160) 3297( ) C Basic Α2 C Basic Power (ΜW) LCoE ann. ( /MWh) Optimal Power (ΜW) LCoE ann. ( /MWh) Basic Power (ΜW) LCoE ann. ( /MWh) Optimal Power (ΜW) Optimal 2175(120/160) 4136(180/220) 4565(160/200) LCoE ann. ( /MWh) Introduction Purpose of the work Technical model Financial Model Results of basic study Investigation scenarios Conclusion

16 16 Conclusion Interconnection scenarios Most advantageous solution for the development of the electrical system of Crete Lower cost and lower LCoE than any Autonomous growth scenario Right conditions for the exploitation of wind and solar potential in Crete Sustainability of large scale investments in RES section Modernization of an old and expensive power generation system The double interconnection appears as the scenario that fully covers the needs of the island until the end of the study (2050) Investigation of the penetration of RES Optimum Photovoltaic-Wind Power mix emerged according to the maximum energy curtailment allowed criterion Large scale penetration that can be achieved is much more than the basic scenarios The increased penetration of RES, contributes to the reduction of LCoE Introduction Purpose of the work Technical model Financial Model Results of basic study investigation scenarios Conclusion