The World Gasification Industry Major Factors & Trends Driving Growth. Freiberg Germany June

Transcription

1 The World Gasification Industry Major Factors & Trends Driving Growth Freiberg Germany June James Childress Executive Director

2 GTC Members AFC Coal Properties Air Liquide America* Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.* Allied Syngas Corporation* American Electric Power* Aramco Services Company* Bechtel Corporation* Black & Veatch Corporation* BOC Gases* Boeing, Rocketdyne Propulsion & Power* Calpine Corporation* Cinergy Corporation* ConocoPhillips* Constellation Energy* The Dow Chemical Company* Eastman Chemical Company* Ebara Corporation Emery Energy Company Fluor Corporation* Foster Wheeler Energy International Inc.* Gas Technology Institute GE Energy* Global Energy, Inc.* Kentucky Center for Applied Energy Research Lake Charles Cogeneration, LLC Linde Process Plants Lockwood Greene E&C / CH2M Hill Lurgi Oel Gas Chemie GmbH Mitretek Nexant, Inc. Parsons Energy & Chemicals Group Inc.* Porvair PLC Praxair, Inc.* Sasol Technology Sempra Generation Shell Global Solutions B.V.* Siemens Westinghouse Power Corporation* Snamprogetti S.p.A. Tennessee Valley Authority* Uhde Corporation of America* UOP Valvtechnologies, Inc Waste Management & Processors Pty., LLC* * Denotes member of Board of Directors

3 Overview State of the gasification industry Worldwide U.S. Why Coal Gasification? Environmental performance: gasification vs. combustion Factors driving gasification trends Prospects for gasification in U.S.

4 The Gasification Industry 2004 World Gasification Survey Summary Findings Growth Forecast Geographical Distribution Feedstock Distribution Product Distribution

5 World Gasification Survey Summary Operating Plant Statistics Operating Plants 385 Gasifiers Capacity~45,000 MWth Feeds Coal 49%, Pet. Resid. 36% Products Chemicals 37%, F-T 36%, Power 19% Growth Forecast 5% annual

6 World Gasification Capacity Growth (MWth Equivalent) 75, Survey 2001 Survey 65,000 55,000 45,000 Source: 2004 World Gasification Survey 35,

7 Geographical Distribution of World Gasification Capacity, 2004 (MW th Equivalent) C&S America 1% Afr/ME 34% North America 15% Europe + 28% Asia/Aust. 22%

8 Geographical Distribution of World Gasification Capacity Growth (MW th Equivalent) 30,000 25,000 Planned (2010) Operating (2004) 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 C&S America North America Europe + Asia/Aust. Afr/ME

9 Product Distribution of World Gasification Capacity, 2004 (MW th Equivalent) Gaseous Fuels 8% Power 19% Liquid Fuels 36% Chemicals 37%

10 Product Distribution of World Gasification Capacity Growth (MW th Equivalent) 30,000 25,000 20,000 Planned (2010) Operating (2004) 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Power Chemicals Liquid Fuel Gaseous Fuel Not Specified

11 Feedstock Distribution of World Gasification Capacity (MW th Equivalent) Petcoke 3% BWO 2% Gas 9% Coal 50% Petroleum 36%

12 Feedstock Distribution of World Gasification Capacity Growth (MW th Equivalent) 40,000 30,000 20,000 China (US) Europe Canada Planned (2010) Operating (2004) 10,000 MidEast US 0 Coal Petroleum Gas Petcoke BWO*

13 Factors Driving Gasification Growth Asia Europe Fertilizers & Chemicals (China, poss. India) Power (China/Japan future) Fuels (Longer term) Wild Card China, Environmental Issues & Econ. Growth; Japan, Policy Shift Toward IGCC? Refinery Models Environment Driven Toward Cleaner Fuels Pernis (Hydrogen, Power) Italian Plants (Power) CO 2 Concerns Remote Gas F-T Liquids North America Natural Gas Prices U.S. Coal, Power, Environment (The AEP Model) U.S. Petcoke in Refineries (Hydrogen, Power) Possible Public Sector Incentives ($$ + Regulations) Canada Oil Sands, Coal

14 U.S. Gasification Drivers Increasing demand for electricity High natural gas & petroleum prices affecting power and manufacturing industries Drive for cleaner fuels (refinery H 2, F-T) F Expectations of more stringent criteria emissions +Hg limits Expectations of CO 2 limits Desire to keep coal in the energy mix Strong Technology Providers, Alliances & Guarantees (ConocoPhillips, GE Energy, Shell Global Solutions) AEP, Cinergy announce plans to build commercial scale coal-igcc plants. Calpine considering petcoke IGCC. Other IGCC, Polygen projects in design, development

15 U.S. Wellhead Natural Gas Price ($/mcf) $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $- Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Source: EIA

16 Annual U.S. New Capacity Additions by Fuel Mwe Summer Capability 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Natural Gas Coal Source: EIA

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