Наименование мероприятия и докладчик

Transcription

1 Energy Resources Availability and Modeling of Energy Consumption in Ukraine till 2100 Leonid Benkovskyi National Nuclear Energy Generating Company (NNEGC) ENERGOATOM Наименование мероприятия и докладчик 1

2 Ukrainian NPPs in operation Nuclear power plants Rivne NPP Khmelnitsky NPP KYIV Head office of NNEGC ENERGOATOM There are 4 NPPs in operation in Ukraine, namely: Zaporizhzhya NPP Rivne NPP Khmelnitsky NPP South-Ukraine NPP Legend: South Ukraine NPP Zaporizhzhya NPP Type of reactors WWER-1000 WWER-440

3 National Nuclear Energy Generating Company Energoatom The State Enterprise National Nuclear Energy Generating Company Energoatom was established in 1996 NNEGC Energoatom comprises all Ukrainian NPPs in operation Рівненська АЕС Rivne NPP РІВНЕ RIVNE Умовні позначки Legend: Типи реакторів Type of reactors Хмельницька АЕС Khmelnitsky NPP ХМЕЛЬНИЦЬКИЙ KHMELNITSKY Южно-Українська АЕС South Ukraine NPP ВВЕР-1000 WWER-1000 ВВЕР-440 WWER-440 КИЇВ KYIV Дирекція НАЕК ЕНЕРГОАТОМ Head office of NNEGC ENERGOATOM МИКОЛАЇВ MYKOLAYIV ЗАПОРІЖЖЯ ZAPORIZHZHYA Запорізька АЕС Zaporizhzhya NPP NNEGC Energoatom is entrusted with functions of an Operating Organization responsible for safety of all operating NPPs of Ukraine 3

4 4 SE NNEGC Energoatom in the energy system of Ukraine (for 2013) Installed Capacities Electricity Generation in Ukraine TPP 63,5% TPP 44,7% NPP 26,0% HPP and other 10,5% NPP 43,1% HPP and other 12,2% Supply to SE Energorynok of Ukraine NPP 44,4% TPP 40,3% HPP and other 15,3%

5 Current status of nuclear power program in Ukraine (FRONT END) There are uranium deposits and mining capacities in Ukraine. The extracted uranium is used for fuel fabrication for the Ukrainian NPPs. The local uranium covers about 30% of nuclear fuel demand for Ukrainian NPPs (about 800 t per year). A decision was made to build a nuclear fuel fabrication plant. Its commissioning is scheduled in two stages. First stage in and the second one in Design capacity of the plant will make up 800 fuel assemblies per year.

6 Current status of nuclear power program in Ukraine (BACK END) Spent nuclear fuel of Rivne NPP, South-Ukraine NPP and Khmelnitska NPP is sent for reprocessing to Russian Federation. Spent nuclear fuel of Zaporizhzhya NPP is being stored in dry SNF storage facility at the site of Zaporizhzhya NPP.

7 Current status of nuclear power program in Ukraine (BACK END cont d) A centralized SNF storage facility for spent nuclear fuel of VVER type reactors is under construction in the Chernobyl exclusion zone. The commissioning of CSNFSF is scheduled in (A resolution # 131-r dated approved the feasibility study on investments and in 2012 a Law on nuclear installation siting and (construction) deployment was adopted). The design capacity of the CSNFSF is spent nuclear fuel assemblies, including spent nuclear fuel assemblies of VVER-1000 and 4519 spent nuclear fuel assemblies of VVER-440). Waste management. Waste treatment (evaporation of liquid radwaste, sorting and compaction of solid radwaste) is performed on-site. Facilities on deep reprocessing of radwaste is under deployment. In future radwaste may be transported to the enterprise Vector which is specialized in waste management.

8 Forecast of Power Consumption in Ukraine

9 Forecast of Power Consumption in Ukraine Subject to extensive use of non-conventional and renewable energy sources (NCRES) capacity the highest development rates could be observed in systems based on wind and solar energy. The difference in electricity consumption rate with using for the options considered till 2100 makes up less than 1 % and is insignificant when building forecast for long-term period.

10 Modeling of Energy Consumption in Ukraine till 2100 Demand/consumption energy structure of Ukraine Ukraine energy structure is based on HydroPP, NPP and TPP. Among the prevailing ones are NPP and TPP. Ukraine has the excessive energy generation power. The current structure of generation is not to change till Ukraine has different types of natural resources covering 10-20% of self demand. The most resource-consuming branches are metallurgy and chemical industry accounting for 80%. Производство электроэнергии, млрд квт ч % % ГЭС Тепловые 91.2 Атомные 47% ОП НТЦ 10

11 Modeling of Energy Consumption in Ukraine till 2100 Natural Resources of Ukraine Certain Prognostics Annual demand Coil mill. ton mill.ton.eq.fuel Oil mill. ton mill.ton.eq.fuel Gas bill.м ,02 mill.ton.eq.fuel Uranium thousand. tu ,4 mill.ton.eq.fuel (for 235 U) ОП НТЦ 11

12 Производство концентрата природного урана, тыс.тоннн Modeling of Energy Consumption in Ukraine till 2100 Natural Resources of Ukraine. Uranium Ukraine uranium reserves are estimated to be 500 thousand ton. Till % of own consumption After 2015 to %. 30% of annual consumption for 15 units is 800 ton Потребности в концентрате природного урана Проектные показатели производства уранового концентрата 2027 Годы ОП НТЦ

13 Modeling of Energy Consumption in Ukraine to 2100 Natural Resources of Ukraine. The coal Most mines have been operated for more then 40 years. Structure of coal demand: - Energy generation 46%; - Metal industry 29%; - Heating 3%; - Other 20%. According to different assessments, coal resources are estimated to be depleted in 400 years. ОП НТЦ 13

14 Modeling of Energy Consumption in Ukraine to 2100 Natural Resources of Ukraine. Gas and Oil Oil The oil consumption in Ukraine is 9.82 mill.ton. Ukraine has 149 oil deposits. The industrial oil reserves are 117 mill. ton. The projected reserves are estimated to be 725 mill. ton 40 years. Gas The potential resource of Ukraine is 5.4 billion cubic meters, the industrial resource 1.2 billion cubic meters. But most gas deposits are exhausted. Ukraine has the state-owned gas stocks (11 storage facilities). But expensive cost and extraction dynamics do not open wide and promising prospects for their use in Ukraine. Hydro The large river hydro resources are exhausted. Total capacity 4.5 GW ОП НТЦ 14

15 Modeling of Energy Consumption in Ukraine till 2100 Natural Resources of Ukraine. Gas and Oil Oil Gas Ukraine does not cover its own demand for oil and gas ОП НТЦ 15

16 NFC options Once-through NFC with LWR Once-through NFC with ALWR Once-through NFC with LWR and HWR on natural uranium Once-through NFC with LWR and HWR on low enriched uranium (1,2%) Partially closed NFC with LWR and HWR on regenerated uranium Closed NFC with LWR and FR(BR=0.98) Closed NFC with LWR and FR(BR=1.2)

17 NFC assessment as per methodology (1) Once-through NFC with LWR Once-through NFC with HWR on natural uranium and LWR Once-through NFC with HWR on low enriched uranium and LWR Once-through NFC with HWR on regenerated uranium and LWR on MOX-fuel

18 NFC assessment as per methodology(2) Closed NFC with light water and fast reactors

19 Reserves Input data (1) ENERGY RESOURCES Coal Gas Uranium [1] 117,4 bln. t (projected), 56,7 bln. t (balance) 5,4 trln. m 3 (projected reserves), 1,2 trln. m 3 (industrial reserves) Mining t/yr mln m 3 / year t (up to 130 USD/kgU) t (up to 260 USD/kgU) Price 100 $/tonn Import $ per 1000 m t (up to 130 USD/kgU) t (up to 260 USD/kgU) [1] Uranium 2009: Resources, Production and Demand ("Red Book") 19

20 Input data (2) Technology parameters Technical and economic parameters of generating technologies used in MESSAGE Title of parameter Coal-fired plants Gas-fired plants WPP wind HPP hydro SPP solar NPP (LWR)* Load factor 0,55 0,32 0,26 0,56 0,15 0,85 Efficiency 0,343 0,57 0,33 Lifetime, years existing, 60 new Unit output, MW Construction period, years [33] Investments, USD/kW(e) Fixed costs, USD/kW 56,6 20,3 30,9 13, ,3 Variable costs, USD/MW h 4,46 14,7 2,43 0,48 CO 2, t/mw h 0,9 0,33 CO 2, tax, USD/tons **** 0,025 0,025 Fuel cost 100 USD/t 400 USD/1000 m 3 Installed capacity, MW ** 83, *** * Reactors of other type may have different characteristics. ** At present, these capacities are unavailable, though MESSAGE may use them in the projected period. *** The cost of uranium and relevant services is used for NPP in the model. **** Tax Code of Ukraine, Article

21 Input data for NFC modelling (1) Cost of uranium conversion and enrichment, FA fabrication Stage Unit Cost, USD/kg Conversion USD/kg 15 Enrichment USD/SWU 155 FA fabrication: Light-water reactor, UOX-fuel USD/kg 300 MOX-fuel USD/kg 2300 Fast reactor (core), MOX-fuel USD/kg 2300 Fast reactor (blanket), natural uranium and tailings USD/kg 300 Fast reactor (blanket), reprocessed uranium USD/kg 1000 CANDU (natural uranium) USD/kg 120 CANDU (low enriched uranium 1,2 %) USD/kg 175 CANDU (reprocessed uranium) USD/kg 200 SNF reprocessing USD/kg

22 Input data for NFC modelling(2) Reactor technologies (1) Parameter LWR VVER ALWR CANDU 6 (0,711) CANDU (1,2) BN-800 FR(0.98) JSFR Capital costs, USD/kW LWR+25% LWR+25% Fixed costs, USD/MW 69,3 69, ,3 69,3 Variable costs, USD/MW*h 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 Thermal power, MW Output, MW(e) Efficiency 0,33 0, ,35 0,35 0,4143 0,42017 Load factor, % Time factor 0,85 In-house loads 0,06 0,06 0,06 0,1 Construction period, years Lifetime, years 45,

23 Input data for NFC modelling(3) Reactor technologies (2) Parameter LWR VVER Make-up, thm 18,25 8 ALWR CANDU 6 (0,711) CANDU (1,2) 21, CANDU (ReU) BN-800 FR(0.98) JSFR FR(1.2) Core ,34 6,53 Axial blanket ,06 8,05 Radial blanket ,89 6,10 First load, thm 70, , Core ,6 54,46 Axial blanket , Radial blanket ,2 42,32 Average burnup, GW d/t , Core ,9 151,448 Axial blanket ,8 11,828 Radial blanket ,2 3,807 23

24 Input data for NFC modelling (4) Reactor technologies (4) Parameter LWR VVER ALWR CANDU 6 (0,711) CANDU (1,2) BN-800 FR(0.98) JSFR FR(1.2) Enrichment of make-up fuel, % 4,32 5 0,711 1,2 Core Pu(21,8) Pu(13,28) Axial blanket Deplet. U Deplet. U Radial blanket Deplet. U Deplet. U Depleted uranium, % 0,25 0,25-0,25 24

25 Comparing NFC options Share of nuclear generation in the energy mix Availability of uranium resources

26 Comparing NFC options SNF accumulation Accumulation of reprocessing products

27 Conclusions Modeling Results 10 20% energy generation consumption can be covered by own hydrocarbon mining; The coal reserves are sufficient for more than 400 years. But reserves are difficult to access and they need substantial investments; Thermal power plants need for new builds; The hydro resources are exhausted. Essential growth of hydro energy is not available till The wind generation is limited by geographic location and have a low total capacity. Need for stand-by power for compensating generation. The maximum wind power generation will not be over 10 % till 2100 Total technical available level of the renewable energy is no more than 16 % for economic aspects; The solar energy and other renewable generation will not prevail as compared with basic conventional generation 27

28 Conclusions In all NFC options considered natural uranium resources are completely depleted by the end of 21 beginning of 22 century (using only domestic uranium). The significant decrease in nuclear generation falls within 2070s. In case of once-through NFC with light water reactors, including ALWR, nuclear generation stops functioning in Introduction of heavy water reactors running on natural uranium (HWR NU) doesn t have significant impact on uranium resources owing to low HWRs share. Heavy water reactors on low enriched uranium (HWR 1,2) shift complete depletion of uranium resources by years beyond 2100 with significant share in nuclear generation maintained at 50% almost till 2080.

29 Conclusions The partial closure of NFC with heavy water reactors on regenerated uranium (HWR ReU) doesn t have significant impact on the natural uranium depletion rate in the period till This is accounted for by the low HWR share, owing to high cost of reprocessing technologies, until the uranium resources are exhausted by light water reactors. However, further use of uranium allows maintaining nuclear power beyond 2100.

30 Conclusions Introduction of fast neutron technologies may start earlier subject to significant rise in price of natural uranium, cheapening of SNF reprocessing technologies and overall cost of fast reactors, as well as in case of SNF storage capacities being limited or the cost of relevant facilities is significantly increased. Hence, the most effective use of uranium resources could be observed in INES option with NFC based on heavy water reactors running on low enriched uranium (HWR 1,2%): in this case uranium reserves are due to be depleted beyond At the same time, this NFC features the highest (among the options considered) amount of SNF (about thm) accumulated by the end of the projected period.

31 Conclusions In both options of closed NFC fast reactors, along with the required infrastructure, start being commissioned after natural uranium resources are depleted. In this case, regardless of natural uranium depletion, nuclear power does not only continue to operate till 2100 but also has development prospects for the next century. The prospects for nuclear power existence and development beyond 21 century (using only domestic reserves) are true only for closed NFC based on fast neutron reactors both with BR < 1 and BR > 1. Both options of closed NFC have near to the best value of levelized cost of electricity.

32 Thank you for your attention! 32