Developments in Energy Planning in India using IAEA Tools

Transcription

1 Workshop on IAEA Tools for Nuclear Energy System Assessment for Long Term Planning and Development Developments in Energy Planning in India using IAEA Tools Arun Srivastava, Mumbai July 2009, IAEA, Vienna

2 Tools Used MESSAGE: Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts - Optimisation study on use of resources - Developing scenarios DESAE: Dynamics of Energy System Atomic Energy - Quantitative assessment of nuclear energy systems. ISED: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development - Social, Economic & Environmental -Energy & Development - Import independence - Resource diversity (fuel type, region & country)

3 Assumptions on Technical and Economic Parameters for Various Technologies Assumptions on Socio-Economic Development and Energy Demand Assumptions on Energy Resource Availability, Costs and Possibilities for Imports MESSAGE Investments, Costs and Resource Needs Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Projections Import Dependence, Environmental Impacts, etc. DESAE NUCLEAR POWER DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO

4 India s s Energy Resource Base Amount Electricity Potential GWe-yr Coal (Economically mineable) (Total Resource 255 BT) 98.2 BT* 19,457 Hydrocarbon 12 BT # 5,833 Uranium-Metal 61,000 -T - In PHWR In Fast Breeders 42,000 Thorium-Metal (In Breeders) 2,25,000 T 155,000 Hydro 150 -GWe 69 GWe-yr / yr Non-conv. Ren GWe 33 GWe-yr / yr Assuming entire resource is used for generating electricity. # Currently known resources (including coal bed methane) are 3 BT. However, MP&NG has set a target of locating at least 12 BT as per Vision Hydrocarbon-2025.

5 Total Installed Capacity as on ,266 MWe Thermal 94,026 MWe (63.4%) Coal 77,949 MWe (52.6%) Gas 14,877 MWe (10%) Diesel 1,200 MWe (0.8%) Hydro 36, 878 MWe (24.9%) Nuclear 4120 MWe (2.8%) RES* 13,242 MWe (8.9%) * RES: Renewal Energy Sources includes Small Hydro Project, Biomass Gas, Biomass Power, Urban & Industrial waste power and Wind Energy Captive Generating Capacity (MW) connected to grid as on MWe Total Per Capita Electricity Generation is about 700 kwh Increase in capacity factors and installed power capacity Planned to double in 10 yrs. The fast increasing trend is expected to continue for a few decades to come. From 148 GWe in 2009 to ~ 1400 GWe by 2052 Source: CEA

6 Trends in Demand and Supply of Primary Commercial Energy (in Mtoe) Domestic production of Commercial Energy Net Imports Total Commercial Energy Non- Commercial Energy Total Primary Energy Non-C E as % of TPE Import as % of TCE % 58.97% 52.08% 40.27% 31.57% 27.37% 14.11% 20.98% 24.67% 17.16% 30.07% 33.48% Non-Commercial Energy: fuel wood, crop residue, cow dung, biogas etc Source: Draft report of the Steering Committee on Energy for the XI five year plan ( )

7 India s Macro Economic Indicators (March 2009) Population about 1,112 Million GDP : US $ bn at current prices Per capita GDP(PPP) (2005 est.) US $3,400 GDP growth rate : 9.5%, : 9.7%, : 9% and : 6.7% (provisional) Composition of GDP : Service: 57.3% Industry: 25.7% Agriculture : 17% FDI : US $ 33.6 billion Average literacy rate 64.84% Life expectancy for male: yr female: yr

8 Energy Development Policy Consume as much as possible the non- carbon energy (Full Hydro potential by 2025, ~50% Non-conventional potential by 2020 and balance by 2050) Energy - Imports as low as possible (restrict to present level of ~30%) Energy conservation and efficiency emphasis Social Dimension Provide for minimum basic commercial energy need to even the lowest economic group

9 Resource ENERGY NET WORK - CASE STUDY INDIA Primary Secondary Final Demand Coal Oil Gas Coal Oil Gas Electricity Coal Oil Gas Electricity Gas Oil Coal HeatInd ElecInd ElecMisc fuelres elecres TransFuel MiscElec AgricElec Coal Ext CoalInd Coal PP Coal T&D Coal Imp OilInd Coal Ben Oil Ext TransOil Oil PP Oil T&D Oil Imp GasInd Refinary Gas Ext TransGas Gas PP Gas T&D Gas Imp GasPS Ind Elec Res Elec NuclPP Hyd PP Wind PP Elec T&D Mis c Elec Agri Elec Non-En

10 Projected Installed Power Capacity by Fuel (GWe( GWe) Installed Capacity (GWe) Coal GWe 964 Nuclear GWe Hydro-151 GWe 800 Gas-110 GWe 660 Non-Conv-102 GWe Oil-78 GWe Total Installed-1354 GWe

11 Projected Installed Nuclear Power Capacity build up Reactor wise breakup Installed Capacity (GWe) PHWR (incl. AHWR and TAPS 1&2) LWR FBR from LWR FBR from PHWR Projected Nuclear Installed Capacity build up Year

12 Projected Electricity Generation by Fuel (TWh( TWh) Electricity Generation (TWh) Total-7966 TWh Coal-3908 TWh Nuclear TWh Gas-672 TWh Hydro-556 TWh Oil-476 TWh NonConv-295 TWh

13 Scenarios for Total Installed Power Capacity in India (DAE-2004 and Planning Commission-2006 studies) GWe Year DAE PC_GDP-Growth 8% PC_GDP-Growth 9%

14 Strategies for long-term energy security Installed capacity (GWe) No LWR imported import: reactor/fuel 40 GWe Period: Deficit to be filled by fossil fuel / LWR imports Projected requirement * * - Assuming 4200 kcal/kg Year Required The deficit coal coal is practically import: wiped billion out tonne in 2050 * in 2050 Deficit GWe GWe FBR using spent fuel from LWR LWR (Imported) Nuclear (Domestic 3-stage programme) Hydrocarbon Coal domestic Non-conventional Hydroelectric * Ref: A Strategy for Growth of Electrical Energy in India, document 10, August 2004, DAE

15 Share of Non-Carbon and Renewable Energy Total Commercial PE (mtoe) Share of Non-Carbon and Renewable Energy Non-Carbon PE Total Commercial PE Renewal 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Percent share 0 0% Total Commercial PE Non-Carbon share (%) PE Renewable share (%) Non-Carbon PE = Hydro + Nuclear + Non-Conv. Renewable Renewable PE = Hydro + Non-Conv. Renewable

16 Import Dependence Fuel Mix Import Dependence - Fuel Mix 80% 70% Import (%) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Coal Oil Total import Gas Total Import% Coal Imports (%) Oil Imports (%) Gas Imports (%) Up-to import consist of mainly Oil. Beyond this it is contributed by all the three fossil fuel Import dependence of oil is checked by imports of gas and coal otherwise it would increase to unsustainable levels beyond 90% Coal import percent is the share of imported coal out of the total coal used Similar is the case with oil and gas.

17 Percent Imports Electric Use/Capita TPEC/Capita PE-NC share Electric Use/GDP

18 Three Stage Indian Nuclear Programme Thorium in the centre stage PHWR FBTR AHWR Nat. U U fueled PHWRs 320 GWe-Year Electricity Dep. U Pu Pu Th Pu Fueled Fast Breeders GWe-Year U 233 Electricity Th U 233 Fueled Reactors U GWe-Year Electricity Power generation primarily by PHWR Building fissile inventory for stage 2 Expanding power programme Building U 233 inventory Thorium utilisation for Sustainable power programme Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 18

19 Three Stage Indian Nuclear Power Programme A vailability World class performance 89 Globally Advanced Technology Globally Unique Stage I PHWRs 15 Operating 3 - Under construction Several others planned Scaling to 700 MWe Gestation period has been reduced POWER POTENTIAL 10 GWe LWRs 2 BWRs Operating 2 VVERs under construction Stage - II Fast Breeder Reactors 40 MWth FBTR - Operating since 1985 Technology Objectives realised 500 MWe PFBR- Under Construction TOTAL POWER POTENTIAL 530 GWe (including 300 GWe with Thorium) Stage - III Thorium Based Reactors 30 kwth KAMINI- Operating 300 MWe AHWR- Under Development POWER POTENTIAL IS VERY LARGE Availability of ADS can enable early introduction of Thorium on a large scale 19

20 Thorium represents at least three times larger energy resource than uranium. Its exploitation requires a proper sequencing of reactor-fuel cycle technologies in the overall programme. Installed capacity (GWe) Example A case study for India Power profile of PHWR programme Further growth with thorium Growth with Pu-U FBRs Year Important attributes of thorium Effective burner of Pu, produces 233 U 233 U with 232 U, high intrinsic proliferation resistance Lower generation of minor actinides Thoria better retention of fission gases, high thermal conductivity, higher melting point A strategy to achieve required growth profile can be supported through timely deployment of appropriate reactor technologies including FBRs and thorium

21 Advanced Energy Technologies: Thorium and beyond New technology Metallic fuel Molten salt Liquid heavy metal High power accelerators Deliverables Short doubling time FBR ADS for isotope production ADS for power production High temperature materials Hydrogen production Hydrogen utilisation Fusion Compact high temperature reactor IHTR (for commercial H 2 production) ITER Spin-offs Solar tower Desalination Fuel cells

22 THE ORGANISATION DAE Science Research Council ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION DEPARTMENT OF ATOMIC ENERGY ATOMIC ENERGY REGULATORY BOARD R&D ORGANISATIONS PUBLIC SECTOR UNDERTAKINGS INDUSTRIAL FACILITIES SERVICE ORGANISATIONS Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam Centre for Advanced Technology, Indore Variable Energy Cyclotron Centre, Kolkata Nuclear Power Corp. of India Ltd., Mumbai Indian Rare Earths Ltd., Mumbai Uranium Corp. of India Ltd., Jaduguda Electronics Corp. of India Ltd., Hyderabad Heavy Water Board, Mumbai Nuclear Fuel Complex, Hyderabad Directorate of Purchase & Stores, Mumbai Directorate of Construction, Services & Estate Management, Mumbai Atomic Minerals Directorate for Exploration & Research, Hyderabad Bharatiya Nabhikiya Vidyut Nigam Ltd., Kalpakkam Board of Radiation & Isotope Technology, Mumbai General Service Organisation, Kalpakkam Board for Research in Nuclear Sciences National Board of Higher Mathematics Homi Bhabha National Institute AIDED INSTITUIONS Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Mumbai Tata Memorial Centre, Mumbai Saha Institute of Nuclear Physics, Kolkata Institute of Physics, Bhubaneswar Harish-Chandra Research Institute, Allahabad National Institute for Science Education and Research, Bhubaneshwar Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Chennai Institute for Plasma Research, Ahmedabad Atomic Energy Education Society, Mumbai

23 Concluding Remarks Energy as well as electricity consumption per capita has to increase to ensure continued high GDP growth. Augment energy resources and supply in a sustainable manner. Non-fossil resources needs to be augmented. Reduce energy requirement through energy efficiency and conservation. Reduce T&D losses Rationalization of fuel prices to mimic free market prices that promote efficient fuel choices and substitution Encourage renewable and local solutions Enhance energy security (Nuclear power) Promote adaptation of clean coal technologies for future power plants Accelerate power sector reforms and rationalize power cost Promote and focus energy R&D (IGCC, CHP, FBR, Fusion etc.) Promote house hold energy security Create an enabling environment and regulatory oversight for competitive efficiency Decrease in non-commercial use in Rural areas by providing cleaner energy options to them thereby reduce health related problems Rural economy needs to be strengthened so as to increase the affordability of rural people and arrest the migration from rural to urban areas.

24 Thank You